DPRK Forum

Walter Sharp (AFP)

An interesting article came across Google News today. It appears the USFK is starting to look at what the DPRK may do in the event the Korean War should resume. This is a very, very scary prospect, and I really hope it does not come down to war in the wake of the increased tensions, new sanctions, and the barrage of tests in the nuclear armed state.

The question I pose to readers today is, if the Korean War should resume, what will it look like? I have been researching trying to answer this very question, and this is a difficult one to answer, because nobody can tell the future. I surely do not have a crystal ball as I stated many times before, but it is interesting to try and speculate all the same.

I am not a military expert, but the very first thing on my mind is who will start it? I guess that will depend on the circumstances of course, and perhaps GIKorea will know more about this topic than I, and hope he will respond to this post.

The biggest thing I see from the immediate outset is Seoul or other cities for that matter, and while the damage could be great, I cannot help but seeing the total and utter end to North Korea’s regime. Interestingly enough, the article goes on with possible insurgency and IED attacks:

General Walter Sharp said in a speech to South Korean army personnel that North Korean commandos could use explosive devices among other tactics, according to Yonhap News Agency.

“I believe we will face IEDs (improvised explosive devices), insurgent forces in addition to large conventional attacks,” Sharp said in the speech.

The IEDs could target civilians as well as US and South Korean forces who should strengthen preparedness to tackle such threats, Sharp was quoted as saying.

“Realistic training ensures that the Republic of Korea (South Korea) is fully prepared for a thinking enemy, an enemy that will use IEDs, hide among the population and strike our rear forces and civilians,” he said.

“This enemy will require us to use our weapons much more precisely, to reduce civilian casualties and collateral damage.”

Seoul’s defence white paper says North Korea, which has 180,000 special warfare troops, has stepped up its capability to wage “night-time, mountaineering training and street warfare” against South Korea.

Not only the DPRK’s special forces and insurgents (I do not know if factions can form in a post Kim regime era) using IED’s, but what worries me besides the possible loose nukes are the chemical and biological weapons long suspected to be in Kim’s arsenal. I also cannot help but to see some dirty warfare break out, and not being surprised one bit if they use any and all dirty tactics possible.

Besides all of this, assuming the war ends, I cannot begin to contemplate the cost of rebuilding North Korea to match the South. It will cost untold billions if not trillions of dollars. Not including the massive humanitarian response needed for displaced and hungry North Koreans. What will be even more interesting is finding out what is found at the prison camps. I am sure it will take years to find out the full magnitude of such atrocities.

This is very difficult to contemplate, and something worth discussing. Let me know your thoughts.

Jack Korean War, Speculation Korean War, Speculation

(Big hat tip to Hapo) A very recent and chilling account of Yodok. It is very brief, but I watched it several times.

Jack Human Rights, North Korea, Video Human Rights, North Korea, Video

An interesting tale has apparently been making its way to North Korea’s FAX machines. The contents of the PDF are here, and I found myself reading it several times.

It might be worth the look and perhaps a FAX or two.

Jack Human Rights, North Korea Human Rights, North Korea

Kim Jong Un as a child, no recent pictures have surfaced.

The succession rumors continue to intensify in the wake of the toothless sanctions imposed by the United Nations for the recent nuke and missile tests. A third is said to be on the way. In the meantime, Google News showed some un-named sources saying Kim Jong Un has been named “Brilliant Comrade” as a way to start building a cult of personality.

I went to the KCNA web site and found no evidence of anything about Kim Jong Un, but that does not mean other media inside North Korea has said anything about him either. It kind of sucks not to know the Korean language (I would have access to a lot more source material if I did), but with the limited information I do have, I do not see anything yet.

As Andrei Lankov suggested from a post made by ROK Drop a few days ago, there will be more than enough to write and speculate about once the kid is named officially, if he is named officially. Moreover, the newspaper that carried the report of this new title did not have the article cited in the NYT (not that I could find anyway), but did run into an interesting blurb on what may be a more recent photo of Kim Jong Un:

Kim Jong Un? (Yonhap)

Finally, on the same page, Kim’s former chef has some interesting insight as well:

“Since the senior Kim regarded his second son as ‘girlish’ and not aggressive, I don’t think Kim Jong-il will oust Jong-chol even though Jong-un has become Kim’s heir,” Fujimoto said. “There won’t be a power struggle. Jong-chol is moderate and can be Jong-un’s supporter.”

The rest of the interview is pretty darn good, so I suggest you read it.

Jack Path To Succession Path To Succession

An interesting picture was posted on Wikipedia with the late Enver Hoxha and Kim Il sung sometime in the 1950’s.

Enver Hoxha and Kim Il Sung pose for something. I do not know what it is all about.

I have been looking around for any white papers on this era, books on Amazon for its history/inner workings, and found almost nothing on it.

If you folks know where I can go to research this former regime, please let me know. Also, if you lived under this regime and want to discuss it, let me know too.

Jack Communism, History

Arnold Schwarzenegger's plea to get the books balanced, and quick. Will it happen?

In a bit of “I-never-saw-that-coming” news, my state is near the brink of insolvency. I have lived in California almost all my life, and this is not the first time California seen a budget crisis. Apparently, according to this article, California (or any state for that matter) cannot declare bankruptcy:

Some residents have proposed that the state declare bankruptcy like General Motors, allowing it to cut fat more easily. But there is no bankruptcy protection available for states. Chapter 11 is for companies, and the more relevant Chapter 9 is only for municipalities and other sub-state entities.

I guess what makes this different from the long string of budget woes California has seen is:

Of course, states can choose to default. During the depression of the 1840s, nine states, or nearly a third of the 28 existing at the time, repudiated their debts in some form. Aside from a clutch of Southern states’ defaults stemming from the Civil War, it has not happened since.

Emphasis mine. Good going, California. What are we going to do now? Borrowing must be costly enough as it is because our bond rating sucks ass:

Today, the majority of California’s bonds are owned domestically, many by individual investors — hardly a constituency it would be advisable to leave high and dry. California already has the worst bond rating of any state, and a default could make borrowing impossibly expensive.

According to some stats found on the Internet, it appears California is at the bottom of the heap alright. All these statistics aside, what matters is how California will balance the books. I am no economist, but the options are few to balance the books. All of which I am going to further assume are not going to be popular:

1. Raise taxes

2. Sell assets

3. Cut programs

4. Ask for a bailout

We obviously spend more than what we have, revenues are drying up, and people appear to be fed up. So now the state is starting to sell assets, cut the programs (with more cuts on the way, which is pissing people off), and while Arnold says he will not raise taxes, I cannot see it not happening. Money has to come from somewhere, but with real estate in the toilet, businesses defecting or shutting down, and the jobless rate rising, it may not do much good anyway.

Is default on the horizon? Will Obama and his crew bail us out? Somehow, I can easily see the Treasury Department injecting cash into the state and have tons of provisions on those funds much like AIG, GM and others. Again, I do not see how that will solve the problem. As the article suggested:

The state may be able to grab federal help to plug part of the gap. And it could just use an accounting fiddle to arrive at a balanced budget, as New York did in 1976. Such moves could tide it over the worst, but arguably only serve to push the problem down the line.

I cannot see the state making it unless some miracle happens. Miracles have happened before, mind you, but miracles are very expensive. Nobody wants to see healthcare, education, public safety or other things go, but if there is no money, there is no money.

It should be interesting to see where this will go.

And yes, this is not about North Korea. Maybe in the next post, I will post some stats about the NBA.

Jack Economics, United States Economics, United States

Via ROK Drop:

As usual Dr. Andrei Lankov provides much needed perspective on whether Kim Jong-il’s youngest son Kim Jong-un has really been picked as the next leader of North Korea

Nobody knows who or what will head North Korea after Kim Jong Il. As I stated many times, the only thing certain is eventually, Kim Jong Il will die (like everybody else), and somebody or something will have to run things for better or worse. Yes, reading the tea leaves is half the fun when looking to a place as secretive as North Korea, but the truth is, we know little to nothing about what goes on there, especially regarding succession.

Something definitely is going on in North Korea, though. The shakeup in the cabinet, the elevation of Jang Song Thaek, and the list goes on and on. However, these things could mean something else entirely. Also, will the regime last long enough to sustain a very long grooming process, if in fact this is happening? Could North Korea’s current problems survive? The prospects look dimmer by the day, and eventually, reforms will have to take place, or the system will completely crumble. I strongly believe they cannot be sustained by aid forever. Eventually, donors will grow tired of it and take serious action. Yes, even China and the ROK.

Anyway, the article is a must-read. Lankov knows what he is talking about. Also, if you have not read it yet, I also strongly encourage you to read Korea After Kim Jong Il by Marcus Noland.

Jack Path To Succession Path To Succession

(AP Photo/Yonhap)

Update: The DailyNK has a good article to give some hope. I like hope, well, as hopeful as this situation can be. While nobody can be certain where they will be held, this article does make sense (somewhat), because of these women are worked to death, or sent to a camp like Yodok, how can North Korea hope for ransom in return? From the article (which gave some hope):

Labor camp prisons are not dealt with by the National Security Agency but the People’s Safety Agency. Prisoners are detained in the labor camps under the PSA and are not classified as political prisoners. Family members or relatives of prisoners can visit the reeducation camp and are allowed to bring in food for prisoners. When the term of imprisonment expires, the prisoners can be released.

Emphasis mine. My God, I hope so. However, it does not make the situation any better, but does give hope.

The two have a high chance of being sent to one or other of two special reeducation camps. The People’s Safety Agency operates special reeducation camps in order to detain officials of the Workers’ Party, other high cadres or important figures who need to be well treated. These camps are better-equipped than other general camps. They serve relatively better food.

Let’s hope this is true as well. I am not taking the seriousness of the situation lighter though, because there is no confirmations on where they will be sent.

Original post: Two American journalists filming near the North Korean border in China were captured and held for months have been sentenced to twelve years hard labor by the Central Court in Pyongyang according to the New York Times and many other news sources.

More at ROK Drop and One Free Korea (With update)

While it may be redundant to post this when I agree with these other bloggers, one more will not hurt. I am going to be busy today calling my congressman and others to help secure the release of these women and ask them to put the massive human rights abuses in North Korea front and center (I am not holding my breath, but something is better than nothing). This has not happened yet, and Pyongyang still gets the goodies. My friends, something has to give here. North Korea regulary uses people as pawns as ROK Drop points out, not to mention the abductions. Somehow, this has to stop, and the only way I think this is going to stop when the tyrannical rule of Kim ends (whatever Kim that may be).

Please visit Euna Lee’s and Laura Ling’s Facebook page to see what you can do to help secure their release.

Could these women be the champions for the thousands of voiceless souls languishing in North Korea’s prison camp system? I do not hear a lot about North Korea’s infamous prison camp system in the mainstream press. Now that these women have been sentenced and no word has been said on where they are being sent, speculation abounds. Whatever that place may be, places like Yodok are not Camp Snoopy. However, these women are just two of thousands needing a voice and somebody to care. I do not see Washington caring. It is time they got off their ass and do something about human rights in the DPRK. Again, I am not holding my breath, but my mom always said, “the squeaky wheel gets the grease”.

Yes, call me stupid, but I hold hope for human rights even if the situation looks bleak.

With that said, I also agree the Kim Jong Il regime will be paid for their release:

I see no way the US government will allow these two to be held hostage in North  Korea for 12 years.  Something will be worked out to get them released; I just have to wonder how much the US government is willing to give up to do so? (ROK Drop)

Joshua also makes a good point:

It is hard to predict with certainty what will happen next. It seems there is a consensus out there that the two women will eventually be released, although it could be months before they see freedom. My fear is that if North Korea senses it is being pushed into a corner it cannot get out of, these two women will remain in DPRK custody for a very long time. Having said this, I feel it is too late for the U.S. to effectively separate the Ling-Lee case from North Korea’s nuclear program. Although I believe it was a good effort by the U.S. and a smart approach to take publicly, the two were always intended by the DPRK regime to be pawns in the greater scheme of things. (One Free Korea)

I cannot begin to imagine the sheer horror of even a few months of hard labor in North Korea. May they be released soon.

Jack DPRK Gulags, Human Rights, News, North Korea, United States DPRK Gulags, Human Rights, News, North Korea, United States

Kim Jong nam at Beijing's airport from Macau (AFP/AFP/Getty Images)

BBC reports a non-confirmation confirmation on his brother’s succession. This is the first time I ever heard Kim Jong Nam speak. I cannot embed the video here, so I will give you a link to the story instead. What role, if any, Jong Nam plays in North Korea is uncertain, and if he does know anything, of course he is not going to confirm it. I also believe he does not know a whole lot, either, but that is just a guess. What is striking is the remark he does not remember the last time he spoke to his old man.

Questioned about whether he had been notified by the North Korean government about succession plans, Kim Jong-nam hesitated before saying: “Very sensitive question. I cannot answer.”

Uh, thanks for the interview, Mr. Kim. Now I do not want to keep you from your shopping sprees while your fellow countrymen are languishing in political camps and eating tree bark.

**************

In other news, Hillary is considering putting North Korea back on the states that sponsor terrorism. From the New York Times:

“What is going somewhere is additional sanctions in the United Nations — arms embargo, other measures taken against North Korea with the full support of China and Russia,” she said. “We think we’re going to come out of this with very strong resolution, with teeth, that will have consequences for the North Korean regime.”

Sanctions will not work without Russia’s or China’s full support, and that I agree with. However, I do not see China moving anytime soon. Anyway, they should have never been removed in the first place, and now the price has to be paid to believing a dictator.

**************

There is still no word on the two journalists detained. Supposidly, they had a trial, but there was no indication on the outcome. I do not know why this is, but whereever they are, I hope they come out of this in one piece. I cannot imagine being locked up in a country totally cut off from the world. One Free Korea has more on this.

Jack News, North Korea News, North Korea

While I do not agree with everything he says, this is still a good interview. Enjoy!

Jack History, Interview, North Korea, Video History, Interview, North Korea, Video

shinramyon ramen noodle package. Looks tasty.

Update: My brain does not work. I forgot to divide by 12. Now I really look like an idiot.  Still, about $1458 is a lot for ramen.

This posting may seem trivial to many who may not live in a repressive regime such as the one ruling North Korea. I also figured such a thing as ramen noodles as trivial, and a tasty snack when I do not feel like cooking. Ramen noodles are merely an after-thought and something I simply throw in the shopping basket at the supermarket. That was until I ran into this anecdotal piece from the DailyNK. And like a lot of DailyNK articles, this one got me thinking, even though the food situation is well-known to be in dire straits in the DPRK.

I never tried Shin Ramyun before, but I have tried many others such as Top Ramen, Cup-O-Noodles and the list goes on and on. From the Wikipedia (cringe) entry, it gave some good indications on how popular ramen noodles are, the supposed prices, and so on. OK, so Ramen is cheap and used everywhere, so what?

From the DailyNK entry:

The source explained the economic backdrop to the rise of Shin Ramyun in the jangmadang, “Currently, cup or instant bowl ramen cost in the region of 3,500 won in the jangmadang, while package ramen is around 2,500.”

Alright, so according to the same article:

2,500 won is approximately half the monthly salary of a North Korean worker. However, among officials and the affluent classes, the social status associated with consuming luxurious, hard-to-get and expensive South Korean Shin Ramyun rather than common Chinese ramen influences purchasing decisions. Needless to say, average citizens also show a great appetite for consuming South Korean Shin Ramyun whenever they have some extra cash. As a result, Shin Ramyun has acquired the nickname “money ramen!”

Of course, it does depend on where you work, but you get the idea. Now I sat here and considered my own salary, which is not all that much, but wondered if the average salary in the United States is say (I will toss a number), $35,000, I cannot imagine a package of ramen costing $1458. I am not an economist (and somebody can help me better understand the numbers), but $1458 for something is beyond the reach of most normal Americans. Now I can see why Shin Ramyun is given as gifts to gain favors, make some extra cash, or as a status symbol.

So here I am putting myself in their shoes (to the best of my ability), and trying to contemplate this. In North Korea, there are no supermarkets in every town. Most people do not own a car, a fridge, television set, microwave or the things even poor people like me take for granted everyday.

I also cannot imagine having to go to some dark corner and whispering to somebody, “Pssst… I would really want some Ramen. Got any?”

“Sure thing, boss, do you have the cash?”

*Hands over a brown paper bag filled with $1458

“Unmarked bills right?”

“Right.”

*Looks around to see if anybody is looking and quickly slips the package of Ramen in my hands

“You never saw me.”

I guess in North Korea, this may be marketization at work, but it also seems to me if one does not supplement their incomes in some way, people cannot survive. Perhaps this is why the authorities look the other way, and the regime, even trying to clamp down on this market activity, may be losing control. Money indeed does talk, and bullshit definitely walks, no matter where you live.

Yes, I am also certain the markets have more to do than just curly noodles, but something as trivial as ramen noodles in my own country being a big commodity in North Korea does make me think. Also, during the Cold War, things like soap, shoes, jeans, and other light industry goods were in demand on the black market. According to PBS’s Communism: The Promise and Reality, talks to a Russian woman who had to spend a whole months salary for some blue jeans.

I think I will end this crazy post now. Just tossing that out there for you folks.

Jack Economics, Food and Aid, North Korea Economics, Food and Aid, North Korea

In remembrance of the July 4, 1989 incident at Tienanmen Square, it is time to post the excellent documentary Tank Man:

Jack Video Video

Kim Jong Un as a child, No recent pictures have surfaced.

A flood of news reports have come down the pike of the Pyongyang regime naming Kim Jong Un as the successor to his ailing father, Kim Jong Il. While the news reports are grabbing to the reader, all the articles I have read thus far admit the sources of these “confirmations” cannot be verified. And with good reason; I do not see one shred of evidence to suggest Kim Jong Un has been named.

There are confirmations from the mouth of the regime itself the top posts have been reshuffled and Jang Song Thaek being named in the hierarchy of the NDC along with a “constitution” change, these indeed go give pause and may point to changes.

Note “may“. Not “will“.

I will be the first to tell you I am just as “excited” to see another shift in power, and am watching the events as closely as anybody else interested in the DPRK. These events do not happen everyday, and seeing how the regime works from the thick soup is interesting as anything I have ever studied. On the other hand, I am even more excited to see the end of the Kim family cult. Just like the succession issue, there is little to no hard evidence to suggest that is happening either. With that, what will convince me the successor has been named?

Read more…

Jack Path To Succession Path To Succession

NKEconWatch’s Google Earth of North Korea is on digg. Please digg the story to get the word out. Well, done, sir. Well done.

Jack Google Earth, North Korea Google Earth, North Korea

Here is an interesting documentary on HULU regarding the rise and fall of America’s once biggest automaker (There are some commercials in the video):

In case you have been living under a rock, General Motors is widely expected to declare bankruptcy Monday. Even after the tens of billions in loans, Chrysler is getting sold to Fiat and GM is still going under. Now taxpayers will own 70+% of a new GM and at the same time, the administration is hoping for a quick emergence from backruptcy. I cannot say if it will be clean  or not, but it will be very complex, and more importantly, very expensive.

Also, this, like a lot of things having to do with Washington, is heavily politicized. Is it the evil, greedy executives getting fat paychecks and rides on private jets begging hat in hand for money to blame? Or is it the strangulation of endless government intervention, coddling of unions, taxes, emission standards and now almost nationalization? I see endless threads with very, very heated debates about it.

The only thing I do not understand in this whole process is, why the billions in loans if the company was going to flop anyway? Would bankruptcy been the better option from the outset? I am not an economist or know what goes on behind the scenes of the negotiations, but it kind of irks me strangely. Perhaps readers can help understand this a little better.

In the meantme, I will wait to see what comes of this, and the announcement should be made very shortly. In that same time, I am sure it will be top news. After all, it is an Icon of American industry, and hopefully, it will not have serious ripples as predicted by some. So far, Chrysler’s bankruptcy has not really seen a collapse in sales, and let us hope the same is in store for General Motors.

Speaking of the Treasury Department, Tim Geithner will head to China in hopes to soothe the anxiety over our massive debts. In my own view, the debts we have accumilated over these past few months have been nothing short of staggering and unimaginable. It is impossible for me to fathom $11 trillion in debt, but that is the cold reality.

It appears China is feeling the anxiety too, and according to the article I linked to:

Geithner will meet with Premier Wen Jiabao, who in March called for the U.S. to “guarantee the safety of China’s assets.” China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, which so far this year has handed investors the worst loss since at least 1977 on forecasts for ballooning federal budget deficits.

“I hope Geithner’s visit can soothe our nerves,” said Yu Yongding, a senior researcher at the government-backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a former central bank adviser. “The Chinese public is worried about the safety of its foreign- exchange reserves,” Yu said in an e-mail.

The passage “China’s assets” worries me for some odd reason, but hits reality home. What does this mean, exactly? China has assets here? Perhaps somebody can help me understand this concept too.

All I can say is, will China keep buying our debt? What do they plan to do if they do not feel confident? I have seen some documentaries about the Federal Reserve mess, and a possible run on the dollar. I cannot say if this is true, considering a lot of these films feel conspiratorial in nature. On the other hand, $11 trillion is a lot of money. How in the world can that be paid back? I cannot imagine it one bit.

According to the same article, it may give some insight, but at the same time, does not really say what the Chinese, or others for that matter, plan to do:

Seventeen of 23 Chinese economists polled in connection with Geithner’s visit said holdings of Treasuries are a “great risk” for the nation’s economy, according to a Chinese state media report yesterday. Still, the majority argued against quickly cutting them, the Beijing-based Global Times reported.

Geithner, 47, needs to show how the U.S. can prevent the value of China’s investment from being eroded by a weaker dollar or by the inflation that might be stoked by the stimulus money being pumped into the U.S. economy, according to Yu.

“It will be helpful if Geithner can show us some arithmetic,” he said.

…and that’s what it boils down to, my friends. How do the numbers add up? And there is more:

Geithner has avoided a showdown on China’s currency policy, declining to repeat comments he made in written remarks to lawmakers after his Senate confirmation hearing in January that China was “manipulating” its currency.

Yeah, I heard about that, but what can we do about it? I am not too sure.

He will encourage China to move toward a more flexible exchange rate, a U.S. Treasury official told reporters in Washington last week.

The Treasury released a transcript May 30 of a briefing Geithner gave last week at the Foreign Press Center in Washington. In it, he said he will stress with Chinese officials that he’s intent on maintaining the dollar’s strength.

“I will, of course, make it clear that we are committed to a strong dollar, that we are committed to bringing our fiscal deficits down over the medium term to a sustainable place, to a sustainable level,” Geithner said in the briefing May 27. “We believe in a strong dollar. A strong dollar is in the U.S. interest.”

He said the dollar’s role in the global financial system is “likely to remain a very substantial role for a very long period of time.”

At this pace of spending, how can that be done? The dollar is seeing a beating, but then again, we are embroiled in a financial mess I have not seen in my lifetime. Perhaps in time, things will be coming up roses, but I cannot help but worry seeing the endless headlines of another bank takeover, the FDIC going dry, automakers folding, and shitty home loan mess rippling all over the place. Oh, and do not forget, there is talk of the commercial estate sector the next to take a beating. I shall wait and see what happens next.

Jack Economics, United States Economics, United States

(AP Photo/Yonhap)

Before I begin this posting, I would like to give my thoughts and prayers to the families, friends and colleagues of the detained American journalists who are going to stand trial in the DPRK Thursday.

I hope they come out of this safe and sound. I cannot begin to imagine the sheer horror they must feel at this time. If it were me in their shoes, I would be urinating and deficating in my pants, and that is not a joke. The mere thought of going away into one of North Korea’s political prisons would bring untold fear into the heart of even the most brave people.

Lisa Ling gave some updates on her sister’s condition:

Laura Ling, in a letter to her sister released on the social networking website Facebook, said she had “cried so much” during her imprisonment but is gradually feeling better.

“I try very hard to think about positive things, but sometimes it is hard to,” she wrote in the letter. The family said the letter was dated May 15 and is the only one they had received from her.

Ling said she was allowed some days to go outside for fresh air.

“I also sit and meditate. I breathe deeply and think about positive things that have happened in the day,” she wrote.

“For example, I think ‘I[']m lucky I made it through another day.’ I?m lucky my family is working so hard to get me released,” she wrote.

I cannot find anything about Euna Lee’s condition, but I hope she is OK as well.

North Korea watchers know the stories of defectors who lived and worked in North Korea’s notorious prison system. If you are not familiar with them, I would strongly suggest you get yourself familiar with them (One Free Korea’s excellent prison camp posting), because if, heaven forbid, if these women are convicted, could be sent away to one of these horrific places.

One of the better known stories is the excellent and chilling book, The Aquariums of Pyongyang. It tells the story of a young man sent away to Yodok for ten years along with his family. He did manage to be released, and then he defected to the ROK. His book is a must read for anybody wanting to know the inner workings of the political prison system. He talks of public executions, backbreaking work hours, starvation, death, coping and re-education. I read this book several times, and everytime I read it, the same chills run down my spine.

I cannot say how the trial is going to go, so I decided to Google on how trials are conducted in North Korea. I will also say this may not be how things will go at their trial, because I do not have a crystal ball. This is merely reading the tea leaves to get some glimpse on how it may go. Furthermore, I usually avoid Slate, but the article was pretty good all the same:

It’s hard to know—very few, if any, outsiders have ever seen the North Korean legal system in action. The country has never held an official trial for a foreigner, at least as far as anyone outside the country knows: Past American detainees—such as Evan Hunziker, the Christian missionary who swam to North Korea from China in 1996—have been held without legal proceedings. (Hunziker was released after several months in custody and committed suicide soon thereafter.)

This reason alone is a cause to watch how this trial will proceed. Furthermore, if this account is correct, the proceedings will not be a public proceeding either, but will parts be shown for propaganda purposes? Time will tell in that regard:

The proceedings will be conducted in Korean, but the North Korean Constitution does grant foreign citizens the right to use their own languages during court proceedings. Trials are supposed to be open to the public, unless they might expose state secrets or otherwise have a negative effect on society. According to testimony from North Korean defectors, though, trials are often closed in practice. Announcements of the court’s findings and executions of sentences are often carried out in public as a means of educating the citizenry.

Emphasis mine. The practice of making an example of some poor soul in the public executions is pretty well-known. Perhaps the outcome will prove the same. No, I am not saying they will be executed, but it seems the propaganda value is evident here. Again, I cannot say what they will do, but this passage was interesting.

I am pretty sure the trial will be held in a showtrial fashion much like the old Soviet Union. According to this passage:

North Korean law does recognize the right of the accused to defend herself and to be represented by an attorney. According to the country’s penal code, either the defendant, her family, or her “organizational representatives” may select the defense attorney. As the two arrested journalists were not allowed access to any counsel during pretrial investigation, however, there are doubts that they will actually be allowed to select their own counsel. According to the U.S. State Department, there is “no indication that independent, nongovernmental defense lawyers [exist]” in North Korea in the first place.

Yes, that makes sense, in some weird North Korean way, but I have not seen any indications of any private law offices for the accused. even if they did, the normal population would certainly not be able to afford it. Lastly, since the system is central government control of everything (officially anyway), I cannot see North Korea allowing private counselors to begin with.

Again, it is impossible to say how the trial will go, and I really hope they get released. I will post updates as this story unfolds.

Jack News, North Korea News, North Korea

Taesongsan Pleasure Ground

Taesongsan Pleasure Ground

More photos at Flickr

Looking on Google Earth, this Pleasure Ground is not too far away from Pyongyang Zoo, Revolutionary Martyr’s Cemetery, and Lake Michon. Some extra info can be found on this entry.

ON IMPROVING PARTY GUIDANCE RELATING TO THE PRESERVATION OF HISTORICAL SITES AND RELICS

A KCNA Entry on the grounds:

Pyongyang, April 11 (KCNA) — The Taesongsan Recreation Ground in Pyongyang has made full preparations for service to working people with the approach of Sun’s Day (April 15). According to Jong Jin Ho, director of the amusement facilities management office of the Taesongsan General Bureau, test operations of all the amusement facilities of the recreation ground have been made. And shooting facilities of electronic ray rifles and other amusement facilities have been supplemented. The recreation ground was built in Juche 66 (1977). It occupies 80,000 square meters and accommodates more than 30,000 people a day. There are a jet coaster (1,500 metres-long rail), a monorail car (1,000 metre-long rail), a big wheel (36 metres in height) and a mad mouse (80 km/h) and other scores of kinds of amusement facilities. Well arranged are folk game grounds, a swimming pool, boating grounds and other sports and cultural amusement facilities, restaurants, resting places and public catering and service establishments. The central zoo and botanical garden with a large plottage of hundreds of hectares are adjacent to the recreation ground.

Lankov’s piece on The Korea Times

Apparently, this funfair was opened in 1977. As you can see, I found more information on this than I expected, but no videos.

The lone ferris wheel in Sinuiju

The ferris wheel seems out of place in a city like Sinuiju, but I suppose those working in the factories deserve a break every now and again. However, when looking on Google Earth and other pictures, I so not see anything other than the ferris wheel. If there is anything else there, let me know.

It seems most of the fun fairs are situated in Pyongyang, but if there are more, I will look for them. If you know of more, please drop me a line.

Jack North Korean Oddities North Korean Oddities

Munsu Fun Fair

In the video above, I cannot tell what date the report was made, but it appears the pools are filled, and the rides are working. However, looking at Google Earth (Of course, I used NKEconWatch’s resource for this), it seems there is no activity. Just to be sure, I looked to Disneyland and saw a lot of activity. Also, to make sure, I went to see if raging Waters in San Dimas, Calif. had reflections in the pool. Yep, I could see the water just fine. Also, I went to Kim Jong Il’s house and found his pool (complete with waterslide) had water too. So, I can safely say the pools at Munsu (and a lot of others for that matter) are empty.

Kim Jong Il's pool (Filled with water), courtesy North Korean Economy Watch

The Munsu Fun Fair in the heart of Pyongyang's exclusive elite district.

Of course, I was curious to know more about this particular oddity and decided to look for more information. True to form with the DPRK, there was very little to go by. However, KCNA came to the rescue:

Munsu Fun Fair crowded with visitors

Pyongyang, April 23 (KCNA) — The Munsu fun fair located in the area of East Pyongyang on the bank of the River Taedong is drawing an increasing number of working people and school youth and children these days. According to manager Pak Pyong Nam, an average of over 3,000 citizens visit there to have a pleasant rest.

It was commissioned in June Juche 83 (1994).

Covering more than 240,000 square metres, the fun fair has over 10 types of amusement facilities such as revolving planes, umbrella-style merry-go-round, double deck merry-go-round. most of them are revolving amusement facilities.
It also has a cinema with moving seats and a billiard room.

And there is a wading pool which has various facilities-flowing water play, flume ride and surf ride. The wading pool is operated between July and August. Its daily accommodating capacity is over 8,000 people.

The fun fair has sufficient catering facilities.

Without a hint of irony in the report, Munsu is filled with people; during the season. Perhaps the satellite photo was taken during that time, but I have my doubts. What else is interesting was this park was opened when the famine was starting to really take hold. Lastly, I do not know if this particular park is part of the tour, but if there is no water in the pool, I do not see much point in the guides taking people to see it. On the other hand, people do go to…

Update: according to Jake, who visited there, it had a lot of people at Manyongdae at least. However, that park was right after the floods in 2007, so it was waist deep in water. So, it may have been in the off season. I cannot say for sure now.

I could not find any pictures on Flickr, however, if you know of any, let me know.

Kaeson Youth Park

This blog posting gives a good rundown on this oddity complete with pictures. Looking at the pictures, it kind of knocks my “too shabby to show” theory out the window. These rides and condition of the park (along with the others I looked at) are simply horrifying. It might of been a better idea to hang at Heritage USA. Alright, perhaps not, because few get a chance to ride the roller coaster of death.

Look at the rust on this thing; and yes, the rest of the coaster and ferris wheel are in similar shape. Where is OSHA when you need them? (home.f01.itscom.net)

(Source)

From the source:

We had a go on the bumper cars and then climbed aboard the famous Roller Coaster of Death, a contraption so ill-maintained it looked close to collapse.

There is an understatement. Again, I tried looking for more information on when this thing was built, or any other tidbits I cold get my hands on. I could not find any official information on the KCNA or Naenara (other than some pictures), but perhaps I was not looking close enough. According to some of the links, the park was opened in 1984, and it appears it has not been maintained since then.

More pictures on Flickr

Kaeson Youth Park satellite image. I cannot see the roller coaster. Perhaps it is buried in the trees or something.

Mangyongdae Fun Fair and Wading Pool

(Source) The above video shows the Mangyongdae fun park. It looks pretty empty, but there seemed to be some people there having some fun I suppose. According to this posting:

“The Mangyongdae Fun Fair lies on the Kalmaeji and Songdan Plains, a little away from the great leader’s birthplace. It was completed in April 1982. The fun fair, covering 60 hectares of land, has nearly 50 kinds of amusements. It receives over 100,000 visitors a day.

The fun fair composed of two parts is linked by a Monorail Car and Gondola Lift Cableway. A wading pool of more than 56,000 square metres is placed at the foot of Song Hill across which the cable car runs.” (Source: Pyongyang Review, 1995)

April 1982. I guess this park was opened along with the other huge monuments for Kim Il Sung’s 70th birthday, which was a huge event. If I recal correctly, the Juche Tower and the Arch of Triumph was unvieled at the same time.

See pictures on Flickr

The roller coaster at Mangyongdae Fun Park.

The fun fair arcade

North Korean Economy Watch linked to some pictures inside the arcade, which was pretty interesting, yet pretty sad at the same time.

I posted about the wading pool a while back, and it appears it is not here anymore. So I guess it is a good time to post it again.

This propaganda video shows more than the Mangyongdae Wading Pool, but also shows what appears to be now empty swimming pools near the May Day Stadium. Whatever the case may be, the Mangyongdae Wading pools look empty too, but again, perhaps it is on the off-season.

The Mangyongdae Wading Pool near the Fun Fair (Naenara)

The whole amusement area seems pretty large, and in North Korea, everything has to be large. I will also dare say it is pretty jarring to see the happy people eating ice cream and having a good time in what seems to be a pristine park only to see the reality of something of a bygone era.

I cannot seem to find any pictures of the wading pool on Flickr, either.

The swimming pools shown in the video now look pretty empty.

The wading pool looks empty too, than maybe the pool in the middle. I cannot tell for sure. All I know it looks like the place is in bad repair.

Jack Communism, North Korean Oddities, Other Regimes North Korean Oddities, Video

Update: DPRK Studies posted an interview with Rachel Maddow that I can embed. This is pretty similar to the FOX News interview. This man has been pretty busy!

The cooling tower gets destroyed in a propaganda extravaganza

Before I go into this post, I would like to congratulate North Korean Economy Watch for appearing on FOX News. I cannot embed the video directly, but it appears alongside he article I am going to discuss today. He discusses his Google Earth resource on North Korea, one of the most useful things out there. If you have not downloaded the resource, I strongly suggest one to go to his page and download it now (ver. 17). It is well worth it.

North Korea has been sabre rattling for quite some time, but the threats along with the nuclear test a few days ago have all eyes on North Korea. While it is very difficult to know what they are going to do as I said on a previous post, speculation is running rampant. According to Yahoo! News:

Pyongyang, reacting angrily to Seoul’s decision to join an international program to intercept ships suspected of aiding nuclear proliferation, called South Korea’s decision tantamount to a declaration of war.

The article points to a KCNA entry:

[...]

Now that the south Korean puppets were so ridiculous as to join in the said racket and dare declare a war against compatriots through their full participation in the PSI, the DPRK is compelled to take a decisive measure, as it has already warned.

The DPRK solemnly declares as follows in view of the prevailing situation:

First, The DPRK will deal a decisive and merciless retaliatory blow, no matter from which place, at any attempt to stop, check and inspect its vessels, regarding it as a violation of its inviolable sovereignty and territory and a grave provocation to it.

Second, The DPRK will take such a practical counter-action as in the wartime now that the south Korean authorities declared a war in wanton violation of its dignity and sovereignty by fully participating in the PSI.

The DPRK will never pardon the south Korean puppet group of traitors for going mad with confrontation and war, bereft of any reason as servants for outside forces in the moves for a war of aggression.

The Lee Myung Bak group will be held wholly accountable for the disastrous consequences to be entailed by its reckless hostile acts against the DPRK.

The question on everybody’s mind is, are these threats credible? Some believe North Korea will not really resume the Korean War, while others believe they will. While there is really no way to know what the DPRK will do, so far, nothing has happened. However, it does not mean anything. In the meantime, what does the international community do to respond to the latest threats and tests? Hillary’s response was puzzling:

Clinton said “there are consequences to such actions,” referring to discussions in the United Nations meant to punish North Korea for its nuclear and missile tests.

She also underscored the firmness of the U.S. treaty commitment to defend South Korea and Japan, U.S. allies in easy reach of North Korean missiles.

Alright, does that mean the United States will respond militarily if necessary? It is too early to say at this stage. However, the ROK had some tougher words:

South Korea’s military said Wednesday it was prepared to “respond sternly” to any North Korean provocation.

What “sternly” means is unknown to me. The DPRK, on the other hand declared the 1953 armistice void:

The North Korean army called it a violation of the armistice the two Koreas signed in 1953 to end their three-year war, and said it would no longer honor the treaty.

Are these just words? That is hard to say. So far, I have not sen any activity, but it seems alert levels have been risen just in case.

While I have my doubts North Korea will do anything, I do agree

The success of any new sanctions would depend on how aggressively China, one of North Korea’s only allies, implements them.

“It’s not going too far to say that China holds the keys on sanctions,” said Kim Sung-han, an international relations professor at Seoul’s Korea University.

China indeed holds the key to turn the lights off in Pyongyang whenever they desire. So far, they have been pretty soft on them for many reasons, one of those, in my view, is the buffer. However, what will it take for China to turn their backs on North Korea? Since their trade is shrouded in client privileged, it is very difficult to know what they will do. Until China does do something to put real pressure and punishment on North Korea, the sanctions will be useless. Hwang Jang Yop suggested on the DailyNK neglect will be much better.

In my view, if North Korea does indeed decide to launch a strike, the damage would be terrible, but the response will most likely mean doom for Kim. Since his whole existence is regime survival, I cannot see him taking that chance. However, I have heard some argue since he is against the wall, we cannot view him as rational. That is a good argument, but will that happen? I surely hope not, but again, it is impossible to know what his plans really are.

So the question is, what is the best way to deal with North Korea? I surely do not have an answer. All I know is, if war should break out, now or anytime in the future, the results will be very, very ugly. Somehow, I cannot see it.

Does this mean I am right? Absolutely not. people have been wrong before, and when push comes to shove, all we have are tea leaves.

Jack News, North Korea, Video News, North Korea, Video

Before I begin, it has been quite a while since I last made a post. I would like to apologize for this, as my life has been very hectic and going upside down. In the meantime, I have some time to sit on my hands wondering what is going to happen next, so I would like to make some comments on what has been going on in the DPRK.

As an aside to all of this, when I think my life has turned for the worst, all I have to do is look at the current state of North Korea and things look a lot better. Yes, things could always be worse, and one of those things is ‘I could have been born in North Korea’. Kind of puts things in perspective.

As the path to succession becomes louder by the say by various media outlets, the path is still not very clear. However, with the elevation of Jang Song Thaek to the NDC, the re-arranging of the regime’s posts, and Kim’s seemingly frail health, something in the reclusive state is changing. What will come of all of this in the end remains to be seen, but right now, things are really heating up in the press and chatter amongst people that usually do not pay any attention to the DPRK.

Why did North Korea test a nuke? Richardson made an excellent post about this very issue, and it is well worth a look. While I am not an expert on nuclear devices or the real heartbeat and/or intentions of the regime, the most I can do is make assumptions and read the tea leaves like anybody else. However, reading the tea leaves is kind of fun, and that is one of the things that make studying North Korea interesting.

The path to succession. Kim’s cabinet was changed quite a bit, and one of the bigger changes was placing his brother in law in the upper echilons of the NDC. I recieved an email not too long ago with the portraits of the current known posts filled, and I encourage one and all to take a look at them. I spent hours looking for information (H/T: KimcheeGI):

OSC Views North Korea’s Leadership
http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/2009/05/osc_dprk-2.html

The leadership of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is portrayed in a new chart (pdf) prepared by the DNI Open Source Center (OSC).  The chart includes the names, photographs and titles of dozens of senior North Korean officials, and also presents an illustrated family tree of supreme leader Kim Jong Il.

Like most other OSC products, this document has not been approved for public release, but a copy was obtained by Secrecy News.  See “2009 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Leadership Chart,” http://www.fas.org/irp/dni/osc/dprk-leaders.pdf Open Source Center, April 15, 2009.

A schematic rendering of the organization of the North Korean government was given in “DPRK Power Structure Chart” (pdf) http://www.fas.org/irp/dni/osc/dprk-power.pdf, Open Source Center, January 2009.

Funny enough, Kim Jong Un was not in this list, but that does not mean anything. However, until I see something concrete come from the official propaganda that he was named successor, it will still be speculative. However, in Richardson’s post, the succession issue may be an indication of these activities in North Korea.

The march to resume the Fatherland Liberation War? I have been having some serious debates about this subject, but the more I think about it, the less likely I think Kim Jong Il is going to wage war with the ROK or anybody else. There are many reasons for this, and many Pyongyang watchers know the details of why this is so. However, I will say since Kim is all about regime survival, sending rockets to Seoul may mark some good damage, the response will certainly spell the end of Kim and whoever else may be there.

At the end of the day, China still holds the ace to North Korea’s surival, and I read China, although getting somewhat perterbed, is still not really moving to put any real pressure on North Korea as far as I can see.

With that, it is a wait and see game to see what happens.

Jack News, North Korea News, North Korea