DPRK Forum

There is growing concern with Pyongyang asking Washington to take them off the sponsors of terrorism list. I had to read the article several times to digest the whole thing, but I will link you to the story so you can read it for yourself.

WASHINGTON: President George W. Bush faces a delicate task as the United States works to persuade North Korea to scrap its nuclear weapons: Fulfill a pledge to remove the North from a U.S. list of countries accused of sponsoring terrorism without alienating ally Japan and American conservatives.

Failure to take North Korea off the State Department list would jeopardize years of disarmament negotiations by infuriating Pyongyang, which views the terrorist designation as evidence of hostile U.S. intentions.

(Emphasis is mine)

I am not a hardline conservative, but this is very scary. Pyongyang has promised to shut down the reactor before, and to give into the demands of Kim Jong-Il would be foolhardy at best. Kim has backed up on is promises before, and will make all kinds of them to remain in power. See Richardson’s theory of disengagement. The two sides are arguing the following:

Following through, on the other hand, would anger conservatives in Bush’s Republican Party and officials in Japan. Hard-liners in both countries complain that the Bush administration, eager for a nuclear resolution, has been far too willing to bend to North Korean demands.

The Bush administration, once wary of any perceived concession to the North, has taken a different approach recently. Opposition Democrats long criticized the White House for following a policy that they said had allowed the North’s nuclear arsenal to grow.

In an effort to reach a nuclear settlement, the United States agreed in February to begin the process of removing the designation of North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism as part of the procedure to end the North’s nuclear program.

While it may be true it may have angered the North to hear bush call them the “Axis of Evil”, North Korea still tested the bomb. The development has been around since the 1980’s, and this reactor has been the carrot on the stick (in my view) to let Kim get his way when he ruffles his feathers. All the while tons and tons of aid gets sent, Kim still remains in power and the aid only enriches his regime while his people starve and continue to die in the gulags. I do not hear about the gulags and the how the aid is going to be used. We just take Kim’s word for it. Just like when he claimed the once frozen $25 million in illicit funds “would be used to the benefit of the North Korean people and for humanitarian purposes” (yeah, right).

Kim Jong Il’s government in North Korea has not been tied directly to terrorism since its agents planted a bomb on a South Korean commercial jetliner in 1987. But for Japan, the top U.S. ally in Northeast Asia, the terror designation is linked closely to its demands that Pyongyang account for Japanese citizens abducted by North Korean agents in the 1970s and 1980s.

Pyongyang resorted to terror even if it was 20 years ago. The anti-US/ROK/Japanese rhetoric has not died down, and (again) the DPRK still tested the bomb and missiles. The North has only disabled and not dismantled the reactor:

As part of the nuclear deal, the North has shut down its reactor and has begun receiving 50,000 tons of oil from South Korea as a reward. It would eventually receive about 1 million tons for disabling its nuclear facilities.

It says nothing about dismantling the reactor. I would not trust Kim one bit as long as it is still in place because he has backed off the promises made before. Who says he will not do it again?

The U.S. president may rescind the terror designation by submitting a report to Congress that certifies North Korea has changed policies and has provided assurances that it will not support future acts of terror.

Certifies what? The promise is only worth a piece of paper. Just like the worth of the DPRK “constitution”.

Some analysts believe the North wants to be taken off the U.S. terror list so it can be eligible for large multilateral financial loans.

Why would the DPRK get more loans? Have they defaulted and is under a cash and carry only basis with arm’s length trading partners? So if Kim smiles and says “I will not do it anymore” will not cut it in my view. He has acted otherwise too many times, and to all of a sudden be good boy and have normal relations with the outside world is simply absurd. Yes, leaders are folding to Kim’s demands once more, and I have no idea what it is going to take for the international community to wake up and realize Kim Jong Il is not going to change, the Chosun policy is not going to change, and the treatment of his people will not change and all the aid in the world is not going to make it any better for anybody.

It is only going to make it better for Kim.

Now a wrinkle in the whole saga is the floods in the North. One Free Korea has an excellent entry on the floods and there is really no reason for me to reiterate what has been said there other than this part which makes a lot of sense:

Only North Hamgyeong, Ryanggang Provinces appear to have been spared, and those areas may have already been experiencing a food situation that was bad and getting worse. This is a country with no margin of error in its food supply. So if Kim Jong Il is telling us the truth, he’s in no position to make unconditional demands. But he’ll make them anyway, and sadly, other nations will deliver with few questions asked. Even the United States has contributed $100,000. It’s a very small amount, but nothing suggests that the North is ready show any transparency in how the aid is distributed.

What a shame. In the ruined fields, there is an unprecedented humanitarian, political, and diplomatic benefit to be reaped. What if, instead of pouring cash and aid into the black hole of North Korea’s Public Distribution System, thus leaving the people vulnerable to its corruption, diversion, and political manipulations, international donors insisted on distributing their aid directly? This time, Kim Jong Il might not be in a position to refuse. There could be no greater humanitarian and political benefit that could be reaped from the ruined fields of North Korea than the sight of compassionate foreigners delivering food, tents, clean water, medical supplies, and even medical services. In the space of weeks, the regime’s base of support would begin to question all of the xenophobia, national supremacy, and self-sufficiency with which it had been so deeply inculcated. Proponents of engagement have a historic opportunity to show their sincerity by demanding — just once, after ten years – that engagement finally do something for the North Korean people.

Oh, here is a video on the floods (Link from NK Econ watch):

Yes, I have to fully agree. What a shame. What a damn shame.