“Even with Kim Jong-il hypothetically out of the picture, the regimes political and military elite don’t want reunification as they would face a loss of power, if not tribunals.”

Richardson’s comment touches on a point that has been on my mind for some time. When the regime collapses I would surprised if many NK citizens do not seek revenge against local security forces and/or political apparatchiks. This could create an even bigger mess, and brings me to a question with several possible outcomes. Fearing for their own lives, will local security forces and apparatchiks unite to protect themselves in large (or small) armed groups to protect themselves from their own citizens (and will they also form the backbone of a nationwide insurgency that will attack any South Korean and/or foreign troops)? Will they accept the consequences of their actions and surrender peacefully to face tribunals? Or, will it be every comrade for himself (or herself)? I am sure there are many more possible outcomes to my question, but I can only think of three right now.

As an aside, one example of a communist nation’s security forces “overreacting” and suppressing peaceful protesters — and sparking a revolution that was joined by the army — is the failed Hungarian Revolution of 1956.

I am in the process of writing the 2nd installment. Yes, this may be kind of boring for those that already know this stuff, but I have some other questions that are not raised in the article. It may be immaterial, they are still questions nontheless.

Thanks for the link to your take on it. I have not seen it, and from the other takes on it, I feel kind of dumb, but then again, I am pretty new to this stuff.

If the aid were to stop completely (in my view), the government would have gone away a while ago.

That’s the money shot. The problem is that a lot of people would die in a short time (months, a couple of years) and governments would feel responsible. As it stands, probably even more have been dying over a much longer period of time. Six in one, half dozen in the other.

The reduction of vast economic inequality seems to be on the forefront of the agenda, and the hope is that reunification can take place gradually and without problems. That is a nice thought, but in my opinion, that seems a tad Utopian.

The same problem with aid applies; it only prolongs the regime, which is not dancing to the same tune. Even with Kim Jong-il hypothetically out of the picture, the regimes political and military elite don’t want reunification as they would face a loss of power, if not tribunals.

You’re asking all the right questions and already have many of the answers.

Here’s my take on Kaplan’s, “When North Korea Falls,” from last year (mostly nitpicking).