DPRK Forum

Thanks to Ally for the link (I talk North Korea endlessly with her, so the least I can do is thank her) According to this article, North Korea agrees to disable the reactor, but there are obvious problems. At first, the headline looks promising, but as I read the details, it is pretty much the same thing:

North Korea has agreed to declare and disable all its nuclear facilities by the end of this year, the chief U.S. negotiator said Sunday.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said two days of talks between the United States and North Korea in Geneva had been “very good and very substantive” and would help improve chances of a successful meeting later this month with Japan, Russia, South Korea and China in six-nation talks aimed at ending the North’s nuclear weapons program and improving relations between North Korea and other countries.

This implies to me it is not done yet, and from now until the end of the year is a long time. Also, to what extent we can trust the word of the regime is another thing. Will they declare and disable everything? There are conflicting reports, so time will tell with this one. As Pyongyang watchers know, the deals have been made, broken, restarted, and it plods along very slowly.

I have to agree with One Free Korea’s entry about the word of Kim Jong Il:

Stated differently, who in his right mind would believe thes guys? I don’t think anything could possibly convince me that North Korea had disarmed itself of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons as long as the country is led by Kim Jong Il, or whatever junta follows the unexpected broadcast that he’s resting comfortably in a sanitorium until he recovers his health. You’ve got to be delusional to trust these people. You have to be ignorant of the regime’s nature and characteristics to underestimate their determination and their ability to conceal.

Right, there is really no way to know 100%, and who knows when North Korea will backpeddle and wave the carrot. I do not want to sound negative about the whole thing, but with anything North Korea, it is a hurry up and wait scenario. In the meantime, the DPRK denies another program, but is willing to talk about it. Talk about a little contradiction:

Another point of disagreement has been over allegations that North Korea has a second, undeclared nuclear weapons program using enriched uranium. North Korea said recently it was willing to discuss the issue, although it did not acknowledge having such a program.

Obviously, North Korea is not talking about everything, and that is to be expected from them. No, they should not be trusted, and this engagement process is long, tedious and fruitless. All sorts of promises are made, and if the past is any indication of what will happen in the future, I am not holding my breath.

To really make sure Kim Jong Il does not have any nukes, the only solution is to make sure he gets out of power. After all, it does go beyond nukes. There is the question of biological and chemical weapons. Nothing is said about that. However, I guess that is alright as long as they are not hurled over the DMZ but tested on the people in the gulags instead.

There is talk of getting Kim off the terror list, but the details on what North Korea needs to do is mum. I hope he is not taken off the list, because he is unpredictable and anything can happen.

In exchange, the economically struggling North will receive oil and other aid. The U.S., as part of the agreement, promised to begin the process of removing the country from the terrorism list and work toward full diplomatic relations.

Also, there is the little question of Japanese abductions that still needs to be ironed out, and while Kim admitted to kidnapping them, he swears it is settled. I doubt it, but again, time will tell on that:

He said they also had a good discussion of what North Korea wants to achieve and how it can improve relations with Japan.

Apparently, talks with Japan and North Korea are planned in Mongolia:

The issue of the abductees, spirited away from their homeland in the 1970s and 1980s to help train North Korean spies in Japanese language and culture, is an emotive one in Japan and a major stumbling block towards forging diplomatic ties.

Japan says it will not give full-scale economic assistance to North Korea or establish diplomatic ties unless the abduction issue is resolved.

…

Newly-appointed Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura said on Monday Tokyo would not provide North Korea with energy aid unless “progress” was made in the dispute over the abduction issue.

North Korea admitted in 2002 that its agents had abducted 13 Japanese, sparking outrage in Japan.

Five of them were repatriated that same year, but Pyongyang says the other eight are dead. Tokyo wants more information about the eight and four others it says were also kidnapped, and wants any survivors sent home.

…

North Korea insists the case on abductions is closed and demands that Japan make compensation for its often-brutal colonial rule of the Korean peninsula from 1910 to 1945.

So the issue is still very strained, and again, North Korea wants money for the occupation of Korea (I think I read a few billion). My question is, what about South Korea? Were they occupied too at the time? I do not hear a lot about the issues regarding that. This is a very complex political issue, and not everybody is going to get their way. Yes, everybody wants the nukes shut down to breathe a sigh of relief, but as long Kim is in his palace paranoid, anything can happen.

I think I found the South’s position on the talks, so I am going to research this issue more. Therefore, it is obvious I am not too familiar with the full scope of the talks and each country’s positions, agreements and disagreements, so if somebody can elp me understand, that would be great.

I have my doubts, but if the DPRK does come full circle and become part of the international community, I would be surprised and you are free to ask me to eat crow. Just let me add ketchup.

Nuke timeline is here.