DPRK Forum

I am going to have to agree ‘North Korean reciprocal action’ is not going to happen without a lot of arm twisting, but that does not seem to be the case with the current talks with the ever reclusive leader at the levers. Bruce Klingner has an interesting commentary on the six party talks, and while I agree with almost all of it, there are some things that remain unclear to me.

Bush reiterated the U.S. position that a peace treaty remains contingent on full North Korean denuclearization. Roh, instead, favors a more conciliatory approach in the hope that it will induce changes in North Korean behavior. Roh is likely to push for a South-North Korean peace declaration during the Pyongyang summit as an interim step toward a four-party peace treaty.

Even before declaring a formal end to the Korean War, however, both sides should address the threat that North Korea’s conventional forces pose to South Korea.

This could be accomplished by thinning out North Korea’s massive array of artillery and maneuver units close to the demilitarized zone and by implementing other confidence and security building measures.

(Emphasis is mine)

This is the part I am not too clear on. While trying to implement a peace regime and a formal end to the Korean War is a nice thing, I cannot see a formal end to Korean War unless North Korea is not there anymore. One of the reasons I think this is the case is because I simply cannot imagine Kim Jong Il moving his massive army away from the DMZ along with the massive amounts of artillery. Another thing that concerns me are the suspected tunnels under the DMZ. With these and other challenges, is it even conceivable that the south side would risk moving back because of these factors?

Also, will he give up the Korean War POWs and citizens? I kind of doubt that because North Korean mouthpieces are masters of denial. Further, who knows what the fate of some of them were. In any case, it is doubtful North Korea is going to budge, and will probably blow hot air and not deliver. That I am in full agreement on. Roh does not seem to understand this, and sends massive aid in hopes he will change. Kim will not change.

For some reason, I cannot see a peace treaty getting penned without a lot of disagreement and a fight. I do not know if they will meet in the middle, but for North Korea, they want the upper hand, and so far, it seems to be the case.

Time will tell.

(fixed grammar)