I just got done with an interesting discussion about speculation regarding if the the Korean War should resume. As stated many times before on this blog, I never profess to be an expert on the subject, and would like the insight of other readers regarding some questions.
It may be I have been wrong all this time regarding what I have believed about what North Korea could do if they decided to try an offensive across the DMZ. From what I have been reading, the South has been concerned about a possible offensive on Seoul or other places if Kim should ever get the inkling his regime is under direct threat (or otherwise). As you all know, he seems to be a pretty paranoid guy, and has touted for years regarding the strength of his KPA.
I am not an expert on ROK/DPRK military matters, so maybe folks who have a better grasp of this subject can enlighten me a little more.
With that said, here are the questions:
1. The DPRK’s force is said to be the 4th largest in the world the last time I checked. I was talking with an ROK veteran who said if the North were to push to the South, the North would be obliterated. Despite the losses of the civilian population to the South, I was informed the North does not have a chance if they decide to invade or send some rocket over the DMZ. I concede the North is very antiquated, but from what I have read in the past, I heard an invasion of the North by force could mean problems because defenses have been building up for 50+ years. My guess was, since there are so many unknowns in the North, could it not be so easy after all despite antiquity?
2. I have been wondering about the possible chemical or biological weapons despite the disablement or even dismantlement of the Nuclear complex at Yongbyong. If the Korean War should resume, could the North employ dirty tactics such as chemical or biological weapons? I know I heard an official on a documentary the North would most likely fight dirty if they had the chance. I have seen footage of the South performing drills in case of such an attack. With Seoul in close proximity to the DMZ, could the South react in time in the event of such an attack? I am going to guess yes because of the exercises and long preparations since the armistice. So even if there is a chance of civilian losses, does the North really have no chance to put up a strong fight in the event of war?
3. Now comes the question of defensive vs. offensive in the North. I was assuming since the North has been building defenses for the last half century (albeit antiquated), I would have assumed the North could have dug themselves pretty well and stuff would be pretty difficult to find. On the other hand, with the advancements in Military technology, could this mean the North’s defense capability does not mean much of anything?
As for the overall offensive capability of the North, I assumed it must be pretty weak because of the antiquated weapons. Because of the sheer numbers of KPA, and if the offensive should be concentrated to the North, does this mean the offensive could be the same as the defensive? I know the Taepodong-2 test failed, and it is unknown if the Taepodong-2 is capable of carrying a nuclear payload or if the North did or did not master the miniaturization of such a capability. As for the other long range capability, that I do not know much about, so I am not too certain as to the overall capability of the offensive now that I rethink this. My guess the major concern is to the ROK rather than somewhere else, but I do know Japan is was not happy with the missile tests splashing near their waters.
There are many scenarios if the Korean War should resume, if the North should try to attack the South, the South should attack the North and other permutations.
Help me understand this better, and let us discuss this speculative issue.
If I am wrong on the basic facts, please forgive me, and I will do my best to research better. I will not be the type to say I know it all.
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I’d say the short answer is this;
The U.S. would not doubt obliterate North Korea, and if North Korea initiated any such attack on South Korea it would indeed be suicide for the Kim Jong-il regime (assuming he ordered it and that some of his officers didn’t take military matters into their own hands).
Having said that, South Korea, and Seoul in particular, would take a hellacious pounding with dead likely in the hundreds of thousands if not the millions. Even with our vastly superior weaponry, North Korea has amassed missiles and artillery on the DMZ that would pulverize much of Seoul and other key points in the northern portion of South Korea, and we could not stop that for minutes to hours depending on the location.
Attacks on U.S. facilities through out the world – but concentrated in Japan and Asia – likely would occur; bombings, sniper attacks, etc. by North Korean agents.
Probably within the first day we would attain air superiority – basically the time it would take to get into position and their AF is a joke - and proceed to take them apart, including what supply lines they have. It would probably take a bit longer to take care of their navy as they have a good supply of subs.
They would quickly be isolated, but dangerous. The entire population would likely be armed (and is trained to use such arms), and in the hills – it would be guerilla warfare for possible months or even years (tens of thousands of tunnels and other underground facilities), depending on what level of force we would take to end it. Probably at least millions of North Koreans would die.
Pyongyang’s power to inflict such damage on Seoul is why they’ve not needed nukes it the past and still don’t.
Thanks for the answer there. I have read so many possibilities if the war should resume, and of course, there is a lot of disagreement and a lot of unknowns. From what I understand, the real worry from across the spectrum of opinion is the possibility of selling stuff be it nuclear or otherwise to others such as terrorists. This seems to be happening, even though it is all not that clear just yet. I happen to believe it is true, because for the fact Kim needs the money.
Edit: Also which is why I have no idea why the ROK wants the US out of there. I personally do not like the idea, but the anti-US sentiments are definitely there.
Oh and Roh is a tool. I am so glad to see him go finally.