DPRK Forum

Kind of interesting news today which includes opening sacred Mount Paekdu to visitors via direct flights:

The decision comes a month after only the second summit between leaders of the two Koreas, divided by a fortified border since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.

The North’s state-run news agency KCNA said South Korea’s Hyundai Group had been granted the right to conduct package tours to Mt. Paektu from May 2008 using direct flights from Seoul.

Personally, I never, ever thought something like this would ever happen, and this caught me by surprise. On the other hand, a lot of changes are happening in North Korea, yet at the same time, nothing changes. The DPRK is such a strange oxymoron.

A top Hyundai official met North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang on Saturday, KCNA said.

At present, South Koreans can only visit the Chinese side of the 2,744 metre (9,000 feet) mountain, which Koreans consider sacred because they believe it is the place of their ancestral origin. The mountain is on the northern tip of the Korean peninsula.

…and of course the supposed birthplace of Kim Jong Il (Link and emphasis mine). This is just speculation on my part, but Kim looking elsewhere at different economic models (see Vietnam post), opening/planning special economic zones, and now opening places not previously opened to the outside world may be an inkling (and from my view obvious) of Kim’s need for more hard needed cash. Is this a foreshadow of more dire things to come? Is North Korea finally realizing the very serious problems it faces? That I cannot answer, but that trip to Vietnam and other globe-trotting has me wondering. As with everything in North Korea, I am not going to place any bets.

In other news, the U.S. team is going to fly to North Korea and start the long process of disabling (and hopefully dismantling) Yongbyong. This prospect has a the collective powers that be to breathe a sigh of relief, but in my view, Kim Jong Il cannot be trusted, and for some odd reason, this is coming a little too easy. I believe there is an ace up Kim’s sleeve, and what that is, I can only speculate what that ace (or aces) could be. My guess is Kim will appear to be a nice guy, take the antiquated reactor apart and once off the terror list, gets the long imposed sanctions and could finally get the gloom of the International community off his back.

While the International community will still watch closely what North Korea does, it takes a lot of the heat off. To me, that is worrisome, and this “trust me” story is not sitting right with me. Perhaps I am wrong about it all, and Maybe Kim Jong Il is finally changing his ways and be part of the international community. Somehow, I just cannot see all the cards be on the table. Another thing that is worrisome to me is Kim’s possible involvement with Syria, the meetings with Iran, and other things of that nature. The unmonitored aid also bothers me too. In all, a lot of things bother me, and it seems to get politicians to get some brownie points, the process is getting a little rushed. I think Kim is aware of this and is taking advantage of it. I believe Kim wants his position and his guarantee for his survival intact before another president in South Korea is sworn in. This is also a good deal for Roh in my opinion. See the DPRK Forum Blurb on Marmot’s link to what disabling and dismantling will be like. It is very interesting.

Roh is pushing this issue pretty heavily:

SEOUL, Nov. 3 (Yonhap) — South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said in an interview published Saturday that the declaration of the end of the 1950-53 Korean War can be made even before the dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is verified.

Following the declaration, discussions by the four concerned countries — the Koreas, the U.S. and China — on converting the 1953 cease-fire into a peace treaty can be simultaneously pursued together with the denuclearization of North Korea, Roh said in the interview with a Japanese paper.

Yep, that would look pretty good for his resume, but is this a really a good idea to put the cart before the horse? It seems the information given by Roh is contradictory:

In the interview with the Asahi Shimbun, Roh said the South Korean government and people are still “allergic” to North Korean military forces and absolutely unwilling to tolerate the North’s possession of nuclear weapons.

“It’s needless to say that the declaration of the end of the Korean War and a peace treaty (on the Korean Peninsula) have to be implemented on the premise that North Korea abandons its nuclear program,” said the president.

(Emphasis mine) so, he wants a nuke free North, but his time is running short, so the sooner these things are done, the better. As I said, this is going as little too quickly.

“But the dismantlement of the nuclear program will actually take a long time. So it is unrealistic (for the concerned countries) to begin procedures for a peace treaty after the drawn-out nuclear dismantlement finally comes to an end. I mean… when the concerned parties make reliable promises and mutual confidence is built, the war-ending declaration will be concluded. That will be followed by the simultaneous implementation of discussions on a peace treaty and the North’s nuclear dismantlement.”

Otherwise, Roh asserted, discussions on a Korean Peninsula peace treaty will not be completed in the foreseeable future, due to the huge amount of time and the very complicated nature of the procedures.

This tells me he is implying, ‘Hurry up. Just sign the damn thing and get on with it.’ The U.S. seems to be a little more hesitant (with good reason):

Roh’s stance is slightly different from the position of the U.S. government, which has insisted that an official declaration of the end of the Korean War is not practically possible this year, as the verifiable denuclearization of North Korea is a prerequisite to both declaring the end of the war and signing a peace treaty.

So while from my understanding the North will most likely not declare everything or say what the ultimate plans are, the U.S. seems to be taking a more “wait and see” approach. This is, however, a lot softer than the previous hard line.

Roh and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il held a summit in Pyongyang on Oct. 3 and signed a 10-point joint declaration the next day calling for peace and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Notably, the two Korean leaders agreed to jointly push for a summit of three or four parties to discuss declaring the end of the Korean War and signing a Korean Peninsula peace treaty.

In this regard, Roh’s top security policy secretary, Baek Jong-chun, said earlier this week that North Korea had originally opposed including China in the multilateral summit, but eventually changed its attitude at the request of South Korea. The Korean War ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty, leaving the peninsula technically in a state of war.

I was wondering about this in an earlier post, and it seems like it is clear as to why China was not going to be involved. I did not think excluding China would fly, but this in my view makes Kim a little squeamish because the propaganda in the North is Kim Il Sung was the man who singlehandedly won the Victorious Fatherland Liberation War. I looked to several sources, and do not see a lot about China’s involvement. If there is something that says otherwise, please let me know; the reasons could be very different. That is the impression I am getting from that.

Roh stressed he is convinced that North Korea will eventually give up its nuclear weapons program.

Convinced and North Korea doing are different things. Again, it is the “trust them” story again.Now it gets even better:

“The bottom line in the North Korean nuclear dispute is the mutual misunderstanding. The U.S. is not that dangerous a state for North Korea to deal with, while North Korea does not pose a serious danger to the U.S. But both parties have made aggressive remarks against each other, mistakenly regarding each other as a dangerous party,” said Roh.

This is a huge “wtf” moment. North Korea may not be a direct threat to U.S. soil (that we know of), but this statement is totally ludicrous in my opinion. To downplay North Korea’s rhetoric as something to dismiss out of hand is simply silly and just stupid. While both sides do not like each other, Roh appears to fail the realization the DMZ is still there, the weapons are still there despite the promises and to suggest the U.S. and its allies interests are not threatened is foolhardy.

“We’ve steadily tried to dispel the bilateral misunderstanding between the U.S. and North Korea. The North has attempted to possess nuclear weapons after feeling seriously insecure about its regime. North Korea promised to scrap its nuclear weapons when guarantees were offered, and again tried to take possession of nuclear weapons if the guarantees looked unreliable. That’s why I’m convinced of the North’s eventual nuclear dismantlement,” said the president.

Well no s*** Sherlock. Of course the U.S. feels insecure about the regime. It should be that way. I have no idea what the hell he is babbling about. Of course Kim promises a lot of things. Until it happens, is it better to wait and see if North Korea actually goes through with its promises?

Touching on South Korea-Japan relations, Roh said the two countries’ history and territorial disputes are causing resentment and uneasiness among South Koreans.

“If Japan shows a will to play a leading role in international society through reconciliation and cooperation, the Korean people’s response to past history issues will diminish even without a new apology (from Tokyo),” said Roh.

“I expect a thoughtful response from Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda regarding the history issues. I don’t expect him to pursue populist policies,” said Roh, adding he plans to hold talks with Fukuda on the sidelines of the ASEAN Plus Three summit slated for Nov. 21 in Singapore.

Japan is a hardliner in the North Korea disputes, will that really happen? I am not too clear on Japan/ROK relations, so I am going to have to check the link I provided to get a clearer picture as to what is going on. If somebody can clarify this a little further, that would be excellent.

Updates should be posted as I research this more. Update: ROK Drop has better info on the Japan/ROK question