DPRK Forum

There has been speculation and I have speculated along with many others if the government should finally implode or explode. We do know the economy already collapsed a while ago, and the DPRK has been dependent on aid to keep the regime going. We also know it is hanging by a thread, and numerous reports from defectors and elsewhere has suggested the dire situation in North Korea. One of the speculations is once the regime is finally gone, who would take over, what plans are in place and the long term goals of the North if it should suddenly topple. One of the more well known speculations is China would step in. While not all agree with it, I think we can all agree China does have some vested interest in North Korea pre- and post-collapse. However, I do not have a crystal ball, so it is very hard to say what the future may bring. Whatever the case, sudden collapse will be painful and a mess. I cannot see it any other way.

With that said, there is an interesting article about a proposed plan China supposedly has for the loose nukes should the regime should evaporate:

The contingency plans outline three missions in North Korea should the regime become unstable: humanitarian efforts to help refugees, peacekeeping activities such as serving as police, and the securing of nuclear weapons and fissile material as well as cleaning up any nuclear contamination.

This is one of the first at least semi-solid plans I have heard of, and while others in the region and elsewhere may have plans for a post DPRK, I do not know what they are (if you do, let me know in the comments). This does raise some interest in my view because the article suggests (basically) if others do not have a plan, China will step in:

The contingency plans outline three missions in North Korea should the regime become unstable: humanitarian efforts to help refugees, peacekeeping activities such as serving as police, and the securing of nuclear weapons and fissile material as well as cleaning up any nuclear contamination.

(Emphasis mine) Interesting, considering China sends refugees back to North Korea. In my mind, would it be better to start now and help some of these people running from tyranny if they have some inkling if the regime is on the verge of evaporation? That does not seem to make a lot of sense to me. As backwards as all of this may seem in my opinion, it seems China is looking for some kind of plan with the Internatioal community a to what to do:

The report, titled “Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor,” was commissioned by the U.S. Institute of Peace and written jointly by authors from the institute and the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It is based on discussions with Chinese specialists on North Korea in June last year and was posted last week on the Web sites of authors’ organizations.

The report cites new willingness among Chinese and PLA researchers to discuss with the U.S. any warning signs of North Korea’s instability and possible responses.

“Some Chinese experts say explicitly that they favor holding a discussion of stability in North Korea in official channels with the United States, including possible joint responses in support of common objectives, such as securing nuclear weapons and fissile material,” the authors noted.

( Link addition is mine, and you can download the PDF here) I have not read through the entire report yet, but I will go through it and make another pot, because this is very, very interesting. I also encourage others to read this paper and make any helpful or critcal comments on it because I think this is more than worth discussing. On the other hand:

But there are also analysts who maintain that such discussions are premature, they said.

Maybe so, but somebody has to start somewhere, and since nobody really knows what is going on in the reclusive state of North Korea, and if it should go away all of a sudden, some kind of plan ad hoc or otherwise may be a good idea because if it should go away suddenly, the consequences short and long term are not going to be pretty. So the debate goes on according to the article:

Four North Korea issues are currently being intensely debated in Chinese academic circles, according to the report — prospects of North Korea’s nuclear disarmament, North Korea’s strategic value to China, the status of the North Korea-China friendship treaty, and the impact of rapid improvement in Pyongyang-Washington relations.

The Chinese leadership appears to be encouraging debate on these issues, perhaps seeing value in a public call for greater pressure on Pyongyang or in urging the U.S. to be more flexible toward North Korea, the report said.

The majority in China favor retaining the 1961 friendship treaty with the North, and also the ambiguity about whether the treaty requires China to automatically intervene in case of a conflict involving North Korea, thus leaving both Pyongyang and Washington uncertain about the extent of China’s support in a conflict.

So that explains the secrecy of the extent of the relations with Pyongyang. What is clear is the goals of North Korea if it should fall. In fact, we do know China has had an eye on investment in North Korea. So there is some suggestion of China being interested in the resources of the DPRK. So the bottom line of the secrecy:

Chinese scholars agreed that this ambiguity “strengthens deterrence,” said the report.

Hm, I suppose so. However, it seems China has some concerns about the state of the loose nukes:

Some Chinese experts are concerned the U.S. and North Korea may strike a compromise deal in which Pyongyang is allowed to keep its nuclear weapons, it said, isolating Beijing in its insistence that North Korea give up its atomic arsenal and severely impairing China-North Korea ties.

“Chinese analysts vividly recall that Washington pressed Beijing to impose great pressure on India after its nuclear test in 1998, but then reversed its position and condoned India’s nuclear program, leaving China hanging out to dry,” the report said.

“China subsequently devoted two years to mending its ties with India.”

I do not know the validity of the charges, but the bottom line is, it seems China is interested in grabbing the loose nukes. I do not know how Washington will react to this and what kind of compromise will be made if any. As it said, this may be premature, but I am going to think the process in what to do may be a very sticky issue. However, it better start now, because if something should happen, it will be chaos, so some kind of plan should be in place.

In the meantime, I will read the report further and see what is said and what kind of plans are in place. Also, bear in mind, this is from the view of China, and other countries may have other ideas.

See One Free Korea for more. This has a link to an excellent PDF on America’s possible role in a collapsed North Korea. I will not give any commentary on the post. I will let the pot speak for itself. Also, readers can download the PDF here to save Joshua some bandwidth.