DPRK Forum

As NKEconWatch stated, this has been covered many times on news outlets and other blogs, so if you have not seen the other blogs (which I am sure you already have), make sure to read ROK Drop and Marmots. NKEconWatch has some good links to follow as well to get some more details.

As usual, I look to Google News to see what is going on in North Korea, and again, as usual, nothing much has changed other than some superficial warm fuzzies. Pundits are debating what kind of effect this “musical diplomacy” this will have on the normally iron-fisted regime if any at all. Both Washington and Pyongyang downplayed the event, and now they folded their tents and left, I have to agree: nothing has changed in the DPRK. Interestingly enough, I did run into some reactions to the concert:

Marcus Noland:

Cultural diplomacy can signal benign intent and has played a role in the past, most notably the “ping-pong” diplomacy that accompanied the establishment of diplomatic relations between the US and China in the 1970s. But the New York Philharmonic’s visit to Pyongyang is unlikely to have similar resonance. The visit was planned during the latter part of 2007 when the Six Party Talks on the North Korean nuclear weapons program appeared to be making progress and normalization of relations between the US and North Korea appeared plausible. The North Koreans have failed to meet the agreed upon 31 December 2007 deadline for a complete accounting for their nuclear programs however, and diplomatic progress has stalled. Timing is everything, and under such unpropitious circumstances it is a bit surprising that the visit went on as planned, and the Bush Administration which had supported the initiative, has now distanced itself from it. It is unlikely that any rapprochement will occur between the US and North Korea until the nuclear issue is resolved, regardless of cultural diplomacy. And whatever its diplomatic merits, the trip has been marred by unfortunate comments by the Lorin Maazel and some others associated with the Philharmonic, which have betrayed a woeful ignorance of the North Korean political system and its human rights abuses.

Victor Cha:

I believe that the Philharmonic’s performance in North Korea last night was a wonderful piece of cultural diplomacy. When I worked in the Bush White House on this issue from 2004 to 2007 at the NSC, we had considered the possibility of using sport or culture to thaw relations.

If the concert were truly broadcast live in North Korea, it will have been the first opportunity for the average North Korean to witness such music (rumor has it that the average North Korean is not permitted to listen to music composed after 1900 with the exception of revolutionary hymns composed after the 1948 establishment of the country).

I am less sanguine on whether the concert represents a breakthrough in diplomatic relations between the United States and North Korea. The main difference today from other pieces of cultural or sports diplomacy is that in the past, such as during the ping-pong diplomacy of Nixon’s opening to China in 1971-72, there was no alternate channel of communication through which to convey signals — which made sport so important. This time with the DPRK, the United States and all members of the Six Party talks (US, PRC, South Korea, North Korea, Japan and Russia) have well-established bilateral and multilateral dialogue channels and have agreements on denuclearization that still need to be implemented.

Any “signals” that the North would like to send about improvement in relations with the U.S. or the world do not need to be sent through music. They can be sent through the Six Party talks where all await the isolated regime’s decision to give up their nuclear weapons in return for better relations with the rest of the world.

The reactions are indeed mixed, and despite the attempts of non-partisanship, it was a partisan event no matter how much it is said otherwise. The director obviously made his political views blatantly obvious when he said “People who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw bricks, should they? Is our standing as a country — the United States — is our reputation all that clean when it comes to prisoners and the way they are treated?” yet at the same time said, “We are going to do master classes. We’ll do chamber music, rehearsals … that’s what we’re there for. Politics is not our game. We play music,” Contradiction, don’t you think? In my opinion, if it was not about politics, do not make it about politics. As Marmot’s said, “Then shut up and make music”.

The entire thing (whatever the long term effects are and remain to be seen) was a policy elite ass-kissing fest and gave the regime some much needed hard currency. North Korea would have not extended their loving arms out otherwise unless one pays a lot for it. Kim Jong Il’s long time hardline policies go out the window when he knows a lot of moolah comes his way.

Now the tents are folded and they parted ways, the regular North Koreans still suffer, the six-party talks are still at a stalemate and no declaration has been made for Kim’s weapons programs. So spin it all day long the orchestra made some kind of magical diplomacy. It will most likely not do anything.

Defectors agree:

“The North Korean people have lived under the shadow of dictatorship and oppression for a long time, and most of them have no idea about music,” Seoul-based defector Park Kwang Sun told RFA’s Korean service.

[...]

“Most people…are busy trying to make ends meet and put food on the table, and what they truly need is rice and money, so they have little freedom to think about music,” Ma told reporter Jungmin Noh.

[...]

“Rather than sit around and listen to classical music, people have to spend that time to go out and pluck another bunch of weeds to sell or boil in their pot at home. Only members of the elite have the leisure to think about politics or this kind of cultural event. For ordinary people, a ton of corn or rice means a lot more than a classical music concert,” she said.

And that, my friends is what is happening. Regular North Koreans (if not in a gulag, and that is another issue altogether) are too busy trying to survive than worry about some concert. Many normal North Koreans do not have television or a radio, and if they do, may have heard the concert, but if they are trying to feed themselves and their families, an orchestra means little. Also, defectors describe how the event will be spun by the KWP leadership to help further indoctrinate:

“North Korean defectors as well as people still living in North Korea know full well that the authorities may use this performance to make a statement that musicians came from America to North Korea, to bow their heads in submission to the Great Leader,” defector Park Kwang Sun said.

“Kim Jong-il’s propaganda machine will surely attempt to distort the true meaning of this concert and use it to further indoctrinate the people,” he added.

Despite keeping the official line, the country has not choice but to open up at some point in time, and it appears the regime’s cracks are showing because there is simply no economy. So it appears North Korea has to sell the country piece by piece.

However, they still have some hope at the same time:

“Now, the people of North Korea must think that relations with the United States seem to be improving, and they must be cherishing some new hope for a better future,” he said, adding that the jazz-influenced “American in Paris” by George Gershwin, based on his experience in the French capital during the 1920s, would have been new and refreshing for most North Koreans.

“I’ve even come to think that next time this genre is included in a performance in North Korea, the country may have already opened up to the outside world,” Kim said.

All we can do is hope, and as long as Kim Jong Il and the regime holds on to power, there is little chance of that happening.