This is kind of old news, but wanted to post about it. Over the last few weeks, there has been a lot speculation about Kim Jong Il’s health and the state of affairs of the DPRK leadership. Of course, there is really no way of knowing what is really going on, but one thing is for certain; some quirky things are happening in Kimland.

Earlier this month, the official propaganda arm released stills from Central Television. Amazingly, I found the newscast with the new stills, and there was no indication on when or where the pictures were taken, and there was no live footage of the leader. One of the interesting things noted in many news outlets are the very thick gloves. It was speculated by some it was to cover his recent stroke, but I did notice in the KCTV footage that one still did have a picture without the thick gloves. Of course, there is no way of knowing when the pictures were taken, so nobody really knows if it was an older picture. With that said, it leaves a question; is Kim Jong Il really ill?

Here is the footage I found on Google Video (Dated December 1, 2008):

I do not speak Korean, but from the footage, Kim Jong Il is as elusive as ever. Also, as we all know, the official news is most likely not going to give the real state of affairs in North Korea, but it appears North Korea is trying their best to continue showing the Dear Leader is doing just fine. They have to; otherwise, some serious issues can arise in the reclusive kingdom.

This is not news.

With things this mired in mystery regarding the Pyongyang regime, some questions arise from several sources. For instance, while Kim Jong Il is supposedly re-learning how to brush his teeth, his brother in law is speculated to be running the country.

Despite the fact that Mr Kim has not formally named anyone to succeed him to the leadership of North Korea and its million-strong, nuclear-equipped army, the Government appears to be functioning normally for the time being with no obvious signs of instability.

“Chang Sung Taek is now in control and is leading North Korea,” said Choi Jin Wook, of the government-affiliated Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul. “Other important figures consulted him, even when Kim Jong Il was OK. He will keep Kim Jong Il’s policy line even if he dies.”

I cannot tell you where any of this intelligence comes from, so I will not take this as ironclad proof. Perhaps they have it, but I do not, so it is better to err on the side of caution, because intelligence has been wrong before. With that said, with this intelligence, it raises more questions than it answers.

Why Chang Sung Taek? As the article suggests:

Perhaps because of his growing influence, Mr Chang was abruptly purged in 2004, and sent into internal exile. He reappeared in 2006 and last year a new and powerful post was created for him: head of the Party’s “administrative department”, in charge of the courts, the prosecutors, and the police – including those responsible for internal spying.

While purges are nothing new in North Korea, the circumstances surrounding the reasons are always unclear and mired in secrecy. One thing is for certain though, anything that even remotely challenges Kim’s rule real or imagined will get one purged. Then all of a sudden, he appears to be back in Kim’s good graces, and may be running the country. Again, why? Maybe there is  something I do not know about, and maybe some readers can give some insight on why his brother in law has gained so much favor. According to the article:

Dr Choi declined to describe the source of the information about Mr Chang’s newly acquired position of power, which has been shared with him and other researchers and government officials, and it is impossible to verify independently.

Gee, I would totally agree on that one. Another oddity is this:

The most senior North Korean defector to the South, the former chief ideologue, Hwang Jang Yop, spoke of him as a potential successor to Mr Kim after a coup, and said that he was especially close to Kim Jong Nam, the dictator’s eldest son.

Emphasis mine. Hwang Jang Yop’s explanations always made me scratch my head when he describes what goes on in North Korea. Maybe it is because he is trying to be purposefully obtuse, or I simply do not grasp the entirety of what he knows. Perhaps what he means is Mr Chang is positioned to be in absolute power in the event of a coup. What I do not get is, why would Kim position Mr Chang in such a position of power if he is ripe to step to the helm in the event of a coup? I do not think Kim is that dumb, right?

Also, there is little evidence to suggest there are any splits or factions within the power structure. Does Hwang know something we do not? How about the ROK intelligence? Maybe so, but one of the most curious things about all of this is Mr Chang’s closeness to Kim Jong Nam. Is he still close to Jong Nam, what role could he be playing if any? Why has Kim Jong il not publically named a successor to the totalitarian throne wihen such a succession appears to be emprical to the regime’s survival? Questions like these go on and on, and I could ask these questions all day long.

Perhaps I am looking at this too closely, and many circumstances not known or different can change the picture entirely. For instance if Kim is not really ill, Mr Chang is not runnning the country, if another successor is getting groomed and will be sprung out of nowhere, some major reforms in the power structure appears, and the list goes on and on. Until that time does come about, we are left with the conclusion I cannot say any better:

But none of the governments which monitor North Korea most closely – South Korea, China and the US – have reported any signs of panic or unusual troop movements, suggesting that the government is coping with the indisposition of its leader.

Which make things even the more strange. We will not know until in retrospect and when the picture becomes a tad more clearer after the event occurs. Even then, there are a lot of unknowns.

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