Several news reports suggest Kim Jong Il has “confirmed” his youngest son Kim Jong Un will be named successor of his totalitarian regime. However, I will have to err on the side of caution, because there are still some problems looming over any confirmations at this point.

According to the Times Online:

Reports from North and South Korea appear to confirm what until now has been only rumour – that Kim Jong Un, the third and youngest son of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, is being lined up to inherit his father’s title. [...]

Now comes the non-confirmation confirmation:

Today one of his closest and most hardline generals promised the army’s loyalty to the “bloodline” of the senior Mr Kim, a virtual guarantee that one of his children will succeed to the leadership. Meanwhile, the South Korean Yonhap news agency quoted sources in China saying that Jong Un, the youngest of his three sons, will stand in a carefully rigged “election” to the country’s tame parliament – the precursor to his public emergence as his father’s successor.

This is still the in the future tense, and with anything in the future tense regarding North Korea, should be taken with extreme caution. Un-named sources and anecdotes does not necessarily mean it is a confirmation of anything. In my opinion, until there is a confirmation from North Korea itself, I will not jump out of my chair.

There is more:

“We will firmly carry on the bloodline of Mangyongdae and Mt Paektu with our guns, faithfully upholding the leadership of our supreme commander,” Pak Jae Kyong, a senior general of the North Korean defence ministry, was quoted in the state media as having told a rally to celebrate the recent birthday of Kim Jong Il.[...]

Emphasis mine. That could explain the lack of such a quote from KCNA’s site, and that is another thing that bothers me. The lack of mass propaganda presents a problem in a society where grooming the population is the norm. If in fact Kim Jong Un is named successor, could it mean he is simply a figurehead? It seems to be a possibility:

[...] It is still possible that Jong Un may eventually serve as no more than a figurehead while real power lies with older and more experienced leaders.

Of course, that is also pure speculation of in fact Jong Un is being groomed as a leader. The question of succession is a closely guarded secret, and Kim Jong Il reportedly banned all discussion on it. On the other hand, according to One Free Korea:

It’s interesting that the regime isn’t more aggressive about this in light of Jong Un’s illegitimacy and how that contradicts the state’s Confucian morality, and its attribution of that morality to Kim Jong Il. The most interesting point, of course, is that the regime lacks the ability to keep rumors like this out of North Korea today. It’s doubtful that Sunshine-era engagement allowed rumors like these to reach the provinces. Instead, it was most likely illegal border crossers, smugglers, and banned cell phones. As with economic change, political change will come from the bottom up, not from the top down.

All of this in my view points to a breakdown of complete control of information coming in and out of North Korea. The marketization of the economy does present a problem for the regime, and the next leader (whoever that may be) will have to deal with it. Does that mean reforms will have to come about to keep the regime alive? That remains to be seen, but the balancing act of reforms versus survival may not be sustainable. Furthermore, the United States and partners appear to be on the ready for possible succession (much like they waited for a collapse in the 1990’s). According to recent reports of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton:

She said the administration and its allies in the East are studying the scenarios surrounding such a succession of power.

“If there is a succession — even if it is a peaceful succession — you know, that creates more uncertainty,” Clinton said. “It also may encourage behaviors that are even more provocative, as a way to consolidate power within the society. So we will spend a lot of time — I will — trying to determine from the South Koreans and the Chinese what their information is, because obviously they have a lot of sources they can share with us.”

I guess this does not say a lot other than the obvious. The bottom line is, if there is a succession of power, it will still take time to legitimize it. In my opinion, as long as Kim Jong Il is kicking, the international community will still have to deal with him. Sure, the next leader can be shoulder to shoulder and appear to make decisions together. However, little to nothing is known what happens behind the curtains. Kim Jong Il has been in power for decades, and mystery still remains about him, his government and his society in many respects.

Next, how power will be transferred will be something to watch. While a lot of it will also be speculative, I am interested what the public will see versus what the reality. For instance, in the transition of power from Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il, the public propaganda versus what really happened behind the scenes where very different. The propaganda showed a humble son who carried Kim Il Sung’s revolutionary ideas forward to lighten his load. What appeared to be the reality is, Kim Il Sung’s responsibilities and titles were carefully transferred to the son and essentially Kim Il Sung was a figurehead while Kim Jong Il was the one who made all the decisions. This was all carefully choreographed, and despite the understandable speculation the regime could fall apart without Jim Il Sung and the Arduous March in the mid-late 1990’s, the transfer was successful.

Whatever the case may be, and whatever happens, I am still skeptical about this confirmation. It is my belief one has to be very careful on what third hand accounts say. Anything could happen. While it could be true, the devil is in the details, and details is something that is sorely lacking when it comes to North Korea.

Popularity: unranked [?]

Related posts:

1. China has a hand in succession issue? A reader comment on One Free Korea includes a link...

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.