Link updated; thanks for the tip.

(From an NKEconWatch link) One of the few experts on North Korea released an excellent analysis on social change in North Korea. The PDF is here, or you can grab it from Curtis’ web site.

I may be venturing into very danerous territory when commenting on this piece, but I will do it anyway.

For decades, the International community has indeed fought over throwing money over the DMZ or try and squeeze the regime with sanctions. I do agree these approaches do not work, and despite the attempts at trying to get Pyongyang to change have been futile. The tough stance of the Bush administration met with deadlock and the Sunshine Policy is a faded memory when it was shown to be the new way forward and was met with a lot of promise. Now it is a faded memory.

The new administration is going for the diplomatic approach, and it seems to go in cycles and is (mostly) along partisan lines. While I understand the stances of each side in the attempt of trying to get the Kims to change, perhaps Lankov is on to something when he discusses change from the inside and from the bottom up. To be sure, nobody knows how things will ultimately go down, the regime will be there for a while. I freely admit I have the deep hope of North Korea’s totalitarian regime to implode sooner than later, but I will also say hope and reality are different things.

When contemplating the Cold War days, the old Eastern Bloc (and was brought down with the help of counter-propaganda, trade and other factors. With the socialist economies in shambles, the respective states tried their best to paint a picture of success and further tried to hold up their system with the iron curtain. Eventually, even the authorities knew a barrier was obsolete, and people were getting information from elsewhere and using the black market in an effort to counter those broken promises. To be sure, whatever the ideology, when somebody is cold, hungry and are only given promises that are never fulfilled, eventually they will crack. In my view, the same things could possibly work in North Korea. To make it very, very clear, the society of North Korea is vastly different from Russia, China, the Eastern Bloc and others. However, the promise and reality that is North Korea is the same as the promise and reality in other communist states.

Long lines, lack of supply, long work hours and famine was a way of life. Now it is a way of life in North Korea.

There is no evidence of a bottom-up dissident movement in North Korea, but it does not mean there is one brewing somewhere. The main difference with North Korea and the former Eastern Bloc is there is no sanctuary for dissidents. I am going to guess if these people are given a way to escape, form groups and try to make change from the bottom up, it will be difficult to do so. With China not wanting the buffer to go away, the ROK wanting gradual change (and the list goes on and on), normal North Koreans are still very scared to speak up. I cannot blame them, but with a little help as Dr. Lankov suggested, maybe things can change.

Does that mean Washington and the rest of International community will employ these ideas? I doubt it because it is not the popular thing to do. It is my hope they take another look at this analysis and try this approach, because I agree the other approaches are not working.

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