Update 2: Kim Jong Un was not named to any important posts as far as I know. After all that buildup, nothing. Although t does not mean he could have been place somewhere, I really doubt anything will come of it.

I am not going to make any big deal of it any longer until something solid comes down the pike.

Update: The elections were held, but no word about any clue of a successor. Kim Jong Un is the name to be watched, but no word about it yet. Results are supposed to be in Monday, so I guess I will wait until then. Watch this space for further developments.

Elections in North Korea happen this Sunday, and it will be something to watch. According to the tea leaf readings, succession may come from this election, but until it happens, I will not say it is so. Next, live coverage of elections will not be available, so I will have to wait for the results on KCNA, Yonhap, or some other outlet once the results are known. If in fact a successor is named, it will be big news indeed.

According to the Associated Press:

Recent moves to consolidate his circle of advisers hint he may be setting the stage to hand power to the next generation of the world’s first communist dynasty. If Jong Un joins the legislature Sunday, it would be a strong sign he is being groomed to take over.

“It would be the first step for Kim Jong Un to inherit power from his father,” said Song Young-sun, a South Korean lawmaker and North Korea expert. “He needs a basis for the North Korean people to revere him before he can move on to higher posts.”

This happened when Kim Jong Il was named successor, but if I recall correctly, he was in the background inside the party before he was named successor. After some purges, shifts and other things, it cleared the path to his succession and started the very long process of image building for his own cult of personality.

State-run media have not mentioned whether his son is a candidate. But South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said Jong Un has been tapped as Kim’s successor and will run Sunday. Japan’s Mainichi newspaper carried a similar report, citing an internal North Korean military memo.

The South Korean National Intelligence Service said it could not confirm the reports but called a father-to-son succession possible, noting no sign of opposition from top party and military officials.

Emphasis mine. This extremely important because until it is announced, it is still speculative. Almost every aspect of North Korea is that way, and while eventaully, if North Korea wants to keep the regime and the dynasty going, a succession will need to happen. However, the path to succession within the Kim family system may not happen that way, as many Pyongyang wathers point out. The process is going to be very slow regardless because North Korea will have to trad very lightly in any handover of power. After all, such tranfer of power is a very vulnerable time.

What else is interesting is the phrasing that could hint the path to succession (I think many recall “The party center”):

Recent dispatches in North Korea’s media have emphasized “bloodline” and “inheritance,” possible references to what would be a second hereditary succession. Current leader Kim Jong Il was preceded by his father, Kim Il Sung, North Korea’s founder.

For some time, Kim Jong Il’s late companion Ko Yong Hi, the mother of his two younger sons, has been referred to as “Respected Mother” — a phrase seen as a hint that North Korea is paving the way for one of her sons to take power.

These things, if in fact are hints of succession is important. Start the myths to build a cult of personality. In my view, such a campaign will be pretty difficult from leader to leader, because a lie cannot sustain itself, but since there has only been one succession, it is very difficult, if not impossible to guage. After all, Kim Jong Il’s story was carefully crafted. Perhaps the next story will be a success too. So far, no evidence of any such campaign exists.

Kim better hurry if this is the thing he wants to do. According to the same article, caution is emphasized:

Brian Myers, a professor at Dongseo University in Busan, dismissed the speculation as gossip.

“We should not pay too much attention to the succession issue, because it does not make very much difference who takes over,” he said. “The more important thing is the ideology that they all share.”

That will be key depsite who or what takes over. In the end, Kim  Jong Il is in the driver’s seat, and this “election” will determine once and for all what is in store for North Korea. I will keep this post updated as these events unfold.

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