Before I begin, it has been quite a while since I last made a post. I would like to apologize for this, as my life has been very hectic and going upside down. In the meantime, I have some time to sit on my hands wondering what is going to happen next, so I would like to make some comments on what has been going on in the DPRK.

As an aside to all of this, when I think my life has turned for the worst, all I have to do is look at the current state of North Korea and things look a lot better. Yes, things could always be worse, and one of those things is ‘I could have been born in North Korea’. Kind of puts things in perspective.

As the path to succession becomes louder by the say by various media outlets, the path is still not very clear. However, with the elevation of Jang Song Thaek to the NDC, the re-arranging of the regime’s posts, and Kim’s seemingly frail health, something in the reclusive state is changing. What will come of all of this in the end remains to be seen, but right now, things are really heating up in the press and chatter amongst people that usually do not pay any attention to the DPRK.

Why did North Korea test a nuke? Richardson made an excellent post about this very issue, and it is well worth a look. While I am not an expert on nuclear devices or the real heartbeat and/or intentions of the regime, the most I can do is make assumptions and read the tea leaves like anybody else. However, reading the tea leaves is kind of fun, and that is one of the things that make studying North Korea interesting.

The path to succession. Kim’s cabinet was changed quite a bit, and one of the bigger changes was placing his brother in law in the upper echilons of the NDC. I recieved an email not too long ago with the portraits of the current known posts filled, and I encourage one and all to take a look at them. I spent hours looking for information (H/T: KimcheeGI):

OSC Views North Korea’s Leadership
http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/2009/05/osc_dprk-2.html

The leadership of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is portrayed in a new chart (pdf) prepared by the DNI Open Source Center (OSC).  The chart includes the names, photographs and titles of dozens of senior North Korean officials, and also presents an illustrated family tree of supreme leader Kim Jong Il.

Like most other OSC products, this document has not been approved for public release, but a copy was obtained by Secrecy News.  See “2009 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Leadership Chart,” http://www.fas.org/irp/dni/osc/dprk-leaders.pdf Open Source Center, April 15, 2009.

A schematic rendering of the organization of the North Korean government was given in “DPRK Power Structure Chart” (pdf) http://www.fas.org/irp/dni/osc/dprk-power.pdf, Open Source Center, January 2009.

Funny enough, Kim Jong Un was not in this list, but that does not mean anything. However, until I see something concrete come from the official propaganda that he was named successor, it will still be speculative. However, in Richardson’s post, the succession issue may be an indication of these activities in North Korea.

The march to resume the Fatherland Liberation War? I have been having some serious debates about this subject, but the more I think about it, the less likely I think Kim Jong Il is going to wage war with the ROK or anybody else. There are many reasons for this, and many Pyongyang watchers know the details of why this is so. However, I will say since Kim is all about regime survival, sending rockets to Seoul may mark some good damage, the response will certainly spell the end of Kim and whoever else may be there.

At the end of the day, China still holds the ace to North Korea’s surival, and I read China, although getting somewhat perterbed, is still not really moving to put any real pressure on North Korea as far as I can see.

With that, it is a wait and see game to see what happens.

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