Update: DPRK Studies posted an interview with Rachel Maddow that I can embed. This is pretty similar to the FOX News interview. This man has been pretty busy!

Before I go into this post, I would like to congratulate North Korean Economy Watch for appearing on FOX News. I cannot embed the video directly, but it appears alongside he article I am going to discuss today. He discusses his Google Earth resource on North Korea, one of the most useful things out there. If you have not downloaded the resource, I strongly suggest one to go to his page and download it now (ver. 17). It is well worth it.

North Korea has been sabre rattling for quite some time, but the threats along with the nuclear test a few days ago have all eyes on North Korea. While it is very difficult to know what they are going to do as I said on a previous post, speculation is running rampant. According to Yahoo! News:

Pyongyang, reacting angrily to Seoul’s decision to join an international program to intercept ships suspected of aiding nuclear proliferation, called South Korea’s decision tantamount to a declaration of war.

The article points to a KCNA entry:

[...]

Now that the south Korean puppets were so ridiculous as to join in the said racket and dare declare a war against compatriots through their full participation in the PSI, the DPRK is compelled to take a decisive measure, as it has already warned.

The DPRK solemnly declares as follows in view of the prevailing situation:

First, The DPRK will deal a decisive and merciless retaliatory blow, no matter from which place, at any attempt to stop, check and inspect its vessels, regarding it as a violation of its inviolable sovereignty and territory and a grave provocation to it.

Second, The DPRK will take such a practical counter-action as in the wartime now that the south Korean authorities declared a war in wanton violation of its dignity and sovereignty by fully participating in the PSI.

The DPRK will never pardon the south Korean puppet group of traitors for going mad with confrontation and war, bereft of any reason as servants for outside forces in the moves for a war of aggression.

The Lee Myung Bak group will be held wholly accountable for the disastrous consequences to be entailed by its reckless hostile acts against the DPRK.

The question on everybody’s mind is, are these threats credible? Some believe North Korea will not really resume the Korean War, while others believe they will. While there is really no way to know what the DPRK will do, so far, nothing has happened. However, it does not mean anything. In the meantime, what does the international community do to respond to the latest threats and tests? Hillary’s response was puzzling:

Clinton said “there are consequences to such actions,” referring to discussions in the United Nations meant to punish North Korea for its nuclear and missile tests.

She also underscored the firmness of the U.S. treaty commitment to defend South Korea and Japan, U.S. allies in easy reach of North Korean missiles.

Alright, does that mean the United States will respond militarily if necessary? It is too early to say at this stage. However, the ROK had some tougher words:

South Korea’s military said Wednesday it was prepared to “respond sternly” to any North Korean provocation.

What “sternly” means is unknown to me. The DPRK, on the other hand declared the 1953 armistice void:

The North Korean army called it a violation of the armistice the two Koreas signed in 1953 to end their three-year war, and said it would no longer honor the treaty.

Are these just words? That is hard to say. So far, I have not sen any activity, but it seems alert levels have been risen just in case.

While I have my doubts North Korea will do anything, I do agree

The success of any new sanctions would depend on how aggressively China, one of North Korea’s only allies, implements them.

“It’s not going too far to say that China holds the keys on sanctions,” said Kim Sung-han, an international relations professor at Seoul’s Korea University.

China indeed holds the key to turn the lights off in Pyongyang whenever they desire. So far, they have been pretty soft on them for many reasons, one of those, in my view, is the buffer. However, what will it take for China to turn their backs on North Korea? Since their trade is shrouded in client privileged, it is very difficult to know what they will do. Until China does do something to put real pressure and punishment on North Korea, the sanctions will be useless. Hwang Jang Yop suggested on the DailyNK neglect will be much better.

In my view, if North Korea does indeed decide to launch a strike, the damage would be terrible, but the response will most likely mean doom for Kim. Since his whole existence is regime survival, I cannot see him taking that chance. However, I have heard some argue since he is against the wall, we cannot view him as rational. That is a good argument, but will that happen? I surely hope not, but again, it is impossible to know what his plans really are.

So the question is, what is the best way to deal with North Korea? I surely do not have an answer. All I know is, if war should break out, now or anytime in the future, the results will be very, very ugly. Somehow, I cannot see it.

Does this mean I am right? Absolutely not. people have been wrong before, and when push comes to shove, all we have are tea leaves.

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