Via ROK Drop:

As usual Dr. Andrei Lankov provides much needed perspective on whether Kim Jong-il’s youngest son Kim Jong-un has really been picked as the next leader of North Korea

Nobody knows who or what will head North Korea after Kim Jong Il. As I stated many times, the only thing certain is eventually, Kim Jong Il will die (like everybody else), and somebody or something will have to run things for better or worse. Yes, reading the tea leaves is half the fun when looking to a place as secretive as North Korea, but the truth is, we know little to nothing about what goes on there, especially regarding succession.

Something definitely is going on in North Korea, though. The shakeup in the cabinet, the elevation of Jang Song Thaek, and the list goes on and on. However, these things could mean something else entirely. Also, will the regime last long enough to sustain a very long grooming process, if in fact this is happening? Could North Korea’s current problems survive? The prospects look dimmer by the day, and eventually, reforms will have to take place, or the system will completely crumble. I strongly believe they cannot be sustained by aid forever. Eventually, donors will grow tired of it and take serious action. Yes, even China and the ROK.

Anyway, the article is a must-read. Lankov knows what he is talking about. Also, if you have not read it yet, I also strongly encourage you to read Korea After Kim Jong Il by Marcus Noland.

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