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June 23, 2009 # 6:53 pm # speculation # 12 Comments
An interesting article came across Google News today. It appears the USFK is starting to look at what the DPRK may do in the event the Korean War should resume. This is a very, very scary prospect, and I really hope it does not come down to war in the wake of the increased tensions, new sanctions, and the barrage of tests in the nuclear armed state.
The question I pose to readers today is, if the Korean War should resume, what will it look like? I have been researching trying to answer this very question, and this is a difficult one to answer, because nobody can tell the future. I surely do not have a crystal ball as I stated many times before, but it is interesting to try and speculate all the same.
I am not a military expert, but the very first thing on my mind is who will start it? I guess that will depend on the circumstances of course, and perhaps GIKorea will know more about this topic than I, and hope he will respond to this post.
The biggest thing I see from the immediate outset is Seoul or other cities for that matter, and while the damage could be great, I cannot help but seeing the total and utter end to North Korea’s regime. Interestingly enough, the article goes on with possible insurgency and IED attacks:
General Walter Sharp said in a speech to South Korean army personnel that North Korean commandos could use explosive devices among other tactics, according to Yonhap News Agency.
“I believe we will face IEDs (improvised explosive devices), insurgent forces in addition to large conventional attacks,” Sharp said in the speech.
The IEDs could target civilians as well as US and South Korean forces who should strengthen preparedness to tackle such threats, Sharp was quoted as saying.
“Realistic training ensures that the Republic of Korea (South Korea) is fully prepared for a thinking enemy, an enemy that will use IEDs, hide among the population and strike our rear forces and civilians,” he said.
“This enemy will require us to use our weapons much more precisely, to reduce civilian casualties and collateral damage.”
Seoul’s defence white paper says North Korea, which has 180,000 special warfare troops, has stepped up its capability to wage “night-time, mountaineering training and street warfare” against South Korea.
Not only the DPRK’s special forces and insurgents (I do not know if factions can form in a post Kim regime era) using IED’s, but what worries me besides the possible loose nukes are the chemical and biological weapons long suspected to be in Kim’s arsenal. I also cannot help but to see some dirty warfare break out, and not being surprised one bit if they use any and all dirty tactics possible.
Besides all of this, assuming the war ends, I cannot begin to contemplate the cost of rebuilding North Korea to match the South. It will cost untold billions if not trillions of dollars. Not including the massive humanitarian response needed for displaced and hungry North Koreans. What will be even more interesting is finding out what is found at the prison camps. I am sure it will take years to find out the full magnitude of such atrocities.
This is very difficult to contemplate, and something worth discussing. Let me know your thoughts.
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What will happen? Since I live close to the border, albeit not in Seoul, my arse will be in a sling!
In regards to the costs, the German gov is still struggling to rebuild the East, normalize standards of living and create a positive atmosphere for investment and jobs….20 years later! It is hard to believe the Berlin Wall fell 20 years ago this October.
Thanks for your reply, and yes, it is interesting germany is still reeling from the fall of the wall 20 years ago. It does seem like yesterday, and since the circumstances are so different in Korea, again, it is hard to imagine the magnitude of reconstruction.
I think the magnitude of difference between Germany an Korea shouldn’t be underestimated. Eastern Germany and Western Germany were always some sort of posterchildren of their respective blocs. So both of them actually were given a lot of slack when it came to economy which made them a lot richer in comparison than some other states from their area. After all both of them had to represent their respective ideologies. (basically the capitalism in Western Germany was a lot more socialist than the US would have liked and the Socialism in the GDR was far too capitalist for the USSR’s liking). And still the differences were that huge that the reunified Germany is stil struggling with it. Of course that could have had something to do with the fact that until 1990 everybody was convinced that the GDR really WAS far better than it turned out to be (ranked, if I remember well, somewhere in the top10 richest nations of the world sometimes). The problems started when they did reunify and found out that the problems that had been reported to the west before, actually all were existant and pressing.
The case of NK is something different. Pretty much everybody knows what SK would do to itself when trying to reunify. Well, except for many North Koreans… That famous picture of Asia at night with NK as a black hole of civilization comes to mind: rebuilding this country (and that doesn’t take into account the question if the populace would even want this) is a financial black hole. It would push SK into poverty and drag along a few of it’s neighbours as well.
The worst thing for Korea right now would be a reunification in any case. It would take an orchestrated effort of different nations to get things running. Not that I don’t think enterpreneurs wouldn’t flock to another low wage country to take advantage of…
That said, who do I think would start the war?
NK, in my opinion. From what I understand about this country there are people there holding office and rank who have a view of the world which might be totally debased from reality. People like that might just believe they might win.
The only politically viable option is a CFC response to a North Korean attack. CFC should plan for a quick response to neutralize the threat and minimize loss of life and infrastructure damage. The Six Party powers should discuss all other contingency matters.
G. Neuner, correct on the apples and oranges of comparison. East Germany was much better off than its W.P. neighbors, but once they were forced to compete with the free market, many of their flagship industries failed. Robotron, one of the largest and biggest computer makers in the East Bloc, went bankrupt right after their entry into the market.
I know the South Koreans will scream “Korea is One”…but who would tango with China?
What about the 3rd solution, that China will step in, take them over and make them a semi-autonomous region…matching their other Korean provinces? At least SK won’t have to tear down the DMZ
Thanks for the discussion folks. Yes, China will play a role one way or another, war or not. And yes, I did read somewhere China does have interest in the state, not only for the natural resources, but the buffer as well. Of course, the ROK would not be happy, but again, there is no way to know the future. The speculation as stated before, makes for interesting conversation.
I appreciate the insight, and look forward to more comments.
In the most recent version of “A Quick and Dirty Guide to War” by James Dunnigan and Austin Bay, they devote their energies to the possible outcomes of a second Korean conflict. You can view the short versions on strategypage.com, and browse through the archives as well.
The economic problem is the principal reason why no one wants to take over the country; whoever administers it will trash their economy for the foreseeable future, and no one wants to do that, especially in the current economic climate.
That being the case, if South Korea takes over as the leading half of a unified Korea, the Chinese would likely insist on strict non-nuclear compliance, as well as likely neutrality. Ugly choices all around. Seoul would likely be heavily damaged in a war, as its sprawling suburbs are now within artillery range of the units at the DMZ. North Korea’s armed forces may not be as strong as people believe, as the weapons are old, and the troops don’t train much. Also, their loyalty is suspect; given the depradations they have faced, loyalty to the regime is probably wavering. If they use wmd’s, everyone is screwed.
My $0.02
The US is putting stress and pressure on North Korea when all it wants is to be left alone. Just leave it alone, no nuclear negotiations, no food aid, nothing…
This way either the regime will fall by itself or it will be forced to reform.
Without the US, the ROK, China, Japan and Russia will take more responsibility, something that the DPRK will respond better to than America, which it can’t stand and is incredibly suspicious of.
Everyone in the world other than Americans think that you lot have gone crazy obsessing about North Korea.
It seems to many that the US would quite like an ROK-type foothold at the border of China and Russia. No need to be a genius to guess that this is what is behind the “threat” hysteria, so that regular Americans will believe that it is “necessary” to do a preventive strike.
Similar to the WMD hysteria re Iraq. Haven’t we been down this route before?
Regarding the human rights situation; yes it’s bad, but hardly worse than a number of countries in Africa and several other areas in Asia and the Middle East.
A threat to the US from a starving third world country the size of a small US state???!!!
People, get real, this is so transparent!
A full scale war is extremely unlikely because the North Koreans know they cannot win. The North Korean ruling regime has no intentions of committing national suicide and the surrounding powers have no interest is seeing them commit national suicide.
That is why I think USFK should be thinking about options the North Koreans may turn to in the future in response to any actions that the US may take against the DPRK in the future.
http://rokdrop.com/2009/06/26/usfk-commander-warns-against-guerilla-tactics-in-south-korea/
Kind Sir,
Mine comment is a slightly an uneducated “civilian” response. While I do share your concern and those of others, we are all at an odd crossroad and crosshair so to say. There is discussion of EMP and retalitory defenses that could protect at a limited level; however the capablity of shoving a crate(s) out of several planes is an everyday reality. Who will start the war or pull the trigger is obvious, if the UN Allies chose to have advanced ~ it would have happened already and it hasn’t. The coin is tossed in mid-air and the ball is going to be punted, now the question is who will catch the ball and run with it. Clearly there will be a temporary advance, but this game is Major League against an ill (no pun intended) equiped team who is cheered by fanatics not within their own country.
There is a wistle that is about to be blown, there is year for every quarter ahead… and player after player is going to be injured. Gameplays and solutions will be rewritten play by play and all along, the spectators will have to pay more and more…
No, there is no prompt salvation – our hope is that there will be some one left turn out the light at the end of the night.
[...] So does anyone have any thoughts on what a 2nd Korean War would look like? [...]
What worries me is that is this really Escalating in such a way that the news in cnn,bbc,fox news are reporting.Let me know your thoughts on this.
I am feeling there are a lot of inconsitencies to avoid panicking people all over the Globe militarily and economically tied with South Korea.Similar to the H1N1 strain thats creating a pandemic worldwide.
Should a war break out between North,South US, Japan. Sending world markets and modern electronic banking facilities to a crippling scenario.
I hope and pray i am very wrong. This will be devastating for all of us. A lot of fathers will have to stay close to their daughters and be there for them. This is a time of Worldwide Prayer should you believe in the Almighty.