The crisis. The Enigma. The Controversy.
The story is on CNN. The issue of the abductions were discussed as well:
More at the New York Times as well. There is no need for much commentary other than both plan to attend the opening ceremony despite the glaring defector issue. As the Olympics go forward, North Koreans are sent back.
Sphere: Related ContentI have been really engaged on the Beyond Belief series, but I think this blog needs something Korea related today. It has been a pretty slow news cycle, and while the DPRK balks, all the rest can do is wait to see what happens. However, it does not mean the negotiations are not going on, and right now, it seems despite the hard-line placed on the agreed framework, it was absolutely no surprise North Korea would not deliver, and it was also not a surprise despite the hard talking from the other sides of the table, they are now willing to wait. How long are they willing to wait? The Korea Times seems to have more:
The plan calls for North Korea to disable its key nuclear facilities no later than March and disclose details of its nuclear programs, according to the sources.
Seoul wants to draw up a timetable for the full dismantlement of the North’s nuclear programs and initiate negotiations on building a peace mechanism on the peninsula in the first half of the year, they said.
“We expect the disablement of North Korea’s nuclear plants including the removal of nuclear fuel rods to be completed by March,” a ministry official told reporters, asking not to be named. ``Pyongyang should provide a full list of its nuclear programs by that time.”
(Emphasis mine) Timetables are great and wonderful, but from what I see, where are the consequences if the DPRK does not hold its end of the deal? A sulk? That’s what it looks like to me. The U.S. wants one sooner, but I am sure all sides agree sooner is better. Whatever the case may be, it is in North Korea’s court, and Kim Jong Il is holding the ball.
U.S. chief nuclear envoy Christopher Hill urged the North to declare the list before the inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak government Feb. 25.
“There is no reason why we cannot finish the job in 2008,” he told reporters in Seoul after a meeting with President-elect Lee.
Nope, there was also no reason why the North could not give the list at the end of December, but it was not delivered, right? It is understandable removing of fuel rods is dangerous and takes time, but it does not mean a piece of paper cannot be delivered in the meantime. Of course, the North claims the declaration was given in November, but somehow got lost en route. I wish I could do that with my bills without consequence. Furthermore, the North is slowing down the process until it gets more goodies on top of it.
This part of the article does not make much sense:
Seoul has been trying to initiate talks over establishing a peace regime on the peninsula, replacing the current armistice signed by the United States, China and North Korea at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
The war ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, leaving the two Koreas technically at war. South Korea wants to issue a joint declaration with parties to the truce for putting an end to the war, which it sees as a preliminary step to a permanent peace treaty.
However, the U.S. government is skeptical about a war-ending declaration before Pyongyang’s full denuclearization.
Seoul calls for a peace treaty in 2010. So does this imply the U.S. is willing to wait until 2010? I’ll ponder over this one for a while.
There has been speculation and I have speculated along with many others if the government should finally implode or explode. We do know the economy already collapsed a while ago, and the DPRK has been dependent on aid to keep the regime going. We also know it is hanging by a thread, and numerous reports from defectors and elsewhere has suggested the dire situation in North Korea. One of the speculations is once the regime is finally gone, who would take over, what plans are in place and the long term goals of the North if it should suddenly topple. One of the more well known speculations is China would step in. While not all agree with it, I think we can all agree China does have some vested interest in North Korea pre- and post-collapse. However, I do not have a crystal ball, so it is very hard to say what the future may bring. Whatever the case, sudden collapse will be painful and a mess. I cannot see it any other way.
Continue reading ‘The path to collapse: China to step in (Full PDF available)?’
Sphere: Related ContentHere is the Daily Press Briefing Jan. 04, 2008 with the U.S. Department of State. Sean McCormack gives the press conference:
QUESTION: On North Korea, the — I just watched a response to their foreign ministry saying that they’ve already made this — about (inaudible)?
MR. MCCORMACK: Right. Well, the first thing I’ll note about what they said is that they are committed to the six-party process. That is, I think, the kicker line in their statement and there is every evidence that they are still committed to the six-party process and are moving forward with the implementation of this phase of the agreement as was outlined back in October.
So disablement continues. They have yet to produce a declaration. Would we have wished they had produced a declaration by now? Absolutely, and when I say “we,” all the other five members of the six-party talks. Chris Hill, when he was in Pyongyang and Sung Kim, when he was in North Korea, talked to them about the importance of producing a full and complete declaration. The Chinese have and I know others have as well. We’re going to continue doing that. We want to see this as soon as possible, but we’re not going to sacrifice fullness and completeness in the interest of time.
But the North Koreans need to get about the business of completing this declaration. It’s important to the process. It is another data point that will indicate that they are, in fact, serious about denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, which is, of course, the objective of the six-party talks. So it proceeds. It is not — would we have wished that it had gone faster? Yes. Part of what Chris Hill is going to do in his tour in Northeast Asia as well as to Moscow is talk about this, talk about it with the other members of the six-party talks and urge them to do what they can to encourage the North Koreans to produce a full and complete declaration.
QUESTION: Is he in Tokyo today or is he en route?
MR. MCCORMACK: He left today. He left the United States today, so — I don’t have his schedule in front of me right now. I went through it yesterday.
QUESTION: Are you suggesting that there’s something about Hawaii that has changed?
MR. MCCORMACK: No, no.
QUESTION: Is it no longer a part of the United States?
MR. MCCORMACK: All right, I left that (inaudible) there.
QUESTION: He left Washington today?
MR. MCCORMACK: He left Washington today. I think — what did I say, he left here today?
QUESTION: You said he left the United States today.
MR. MCCORMACK: Touché, Matt. There we are.
QUESTION: Sean, is the Bush Administration emphasis on this complete and correct declaration, because what they showed you originally wasn’t complete and correct? I mean, it’s — you keep saying it has to be complete and correct –
MR. MCCORMACK: Right.
QUESTION: — leads one to assume, well, maybe what they originally showed you wasn’t complete and correct.
MR. MCCORMACK: Well, look, I know Chris talked to them about this when he was up there and we have had several conversations, as have others about the declaration and I’m not going to get into the specifics of the back and forth, but the fact is they haven’t turned in a final declaration yet. They’re going to turn that in to the Chinese as chair, conveners of the six-party meetings and we don’t have that yet. We look forward to a full and complete declaration. We also look forward to their completing the disablement phase up at Yongbyon. That is moving forward and there is good progress on that.
I just have to emphasize to everybody, when you’re looking at this process, if — while we all wish that these diplomatic processes would unfold as we had planned them, sometimes they don’t. And part of the reasons why they are not right now is we are breaking new ground in terms of what we’re doing, in terms of disabling Yongbyon and in terms of working with North Korea in the six-party talks to get a full, complete picture of their nuclear program, not something that has ever been done before.
So that is why, when you say, “Well, it hasn’t been done by December 31st, what are you going to do,” and we say, well, we’re going to keep working on it within a reasonable period of time, that’s the reason why, because we’re breaking new ground here. This hasn’t been done before. But all of that said, none of what we’re doing is lowering the bar. The North Koreans made certain commitments. We expect them to live up to those commitments. We as well as the other members of the six-party talks made commitments and we are going to fulfill those commitments. It’s going to be action in return for action.
Yeah.
QUESTION: Is Mr. Hill going to meet with President Lee in Seoul? Is that on the agenda?
MR. MCCORMACK: I don’t have his list of meetings for you. We’ll try to detail those for you if we can.
Hmmm, so it will be more wait and see. Gotcha.
Sphere: Related ContentThe game continues with the new president of the ROK to entice the reclusive leader of the socialist paradise to come clean and get some goodies. So far, Pyongyang remains defiant. If the North will accept the deal or not is one thing, but if this is talking billions to help shore up the already crumbled economy, maybe it is time for Kim to realize his regime survival depends on such outside help. The downside to all of this is, it means the leader has to make a full declaration which most likely will never come. Does this mean the outside will succumb to a partial list? It is hard to say how the North will play the cards, but it is very clear the North will drag its heels for as long as it can. So far, not much has been done. According to this story:
[...]
He said that as part of President-elect Lee’s plan to persuade the North to abandon its nuclear weapons, the next administration will establish an international cooperation fund of up to $40 billion.
(Emphasis mine) That is a lot of money for the impoverished North, and the plan is the following:
Spokesman Lee says the funds would be raised with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to support the impoverished North’s economic growth. He did not name specific projects, but experts say the fund would first be used to rebuild tattered North Korean infrastructure such as railroads, highways, and shipping facilities.
The question is, with all that money, will there be oversight to see where this money really goes? That is pretty doubtful because it is so difficult if not impossible to have an account of what the Dear Leader does with the money once he does get it. Also, the process of getting the North in line with the South will be a very expensive and long process. I really doubt this is an attempt to get the North in line with the South as much as it may be to keep the regime afloat for a little while longer. It has been that way for decades anyway. On the other hand, until such action has taken place and the North responds to the incentives, it is very difficult to know how it will play out. I am going to guess that amount of cash is going to be very difficult to resist considering the serious quagmire of the collapsed Juche economic plans. At this stage, it is damage control and has been that way for a pretty long time. Both sides have to be aware of this,especially Kim.
Continue reading ‘Matching the South with the North and other news’
Sphere: Related ContentNorth Korea appears almost certain to miss a deadline in a nuclear deal, a development that is unlikely to scuttle the disarmament-for-aid pact it reached with regional powers but could hamper its implementation.
Pyongyang has met one part of the deal by starting to take apart its Soviet-era nuclear facility that produces arms-grade plutonium, but is unlikely to meet its obligation to fully account for its nuclear activities by the end of the year.
If the DPRK makes the deadline, you are free to sell me some oceanfront property in Kansas. It is the 30th already, and looks like nothing is going to be done because North Korea is balking at the details of the February deal. Kim Jong Il wants more aid in return for an almost likely incomplete detailing of its past and current programs including HEU. However, they have almost been certainly been caught otherwise, but apologists will say it could come from somewhere else. With anything dealing with North Korea, nothing is ever certain, and neither will this even if they do declare. How is the outside world to know 100%. They cannot, unless I am missing something.
If it lives up to the deal it reached with China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States, the destitute state would receive 1 million tonnes of heavy fuel oil or equivalent aid and the U.S. would take it off its terrorism black list.
Now that North Korea will not make the deadline, how are the details of the carrot going to be? Time will tell on that one, but I am going to guess it is going to be the status quo.
The paranoid state also probably loathes the prospect of being forthcoming about one of its biggest secrets, its nuclear weapons program, analysts said.
No kidding, yet will still want what they demand. Will the parties involved deliver despite the bad behavior?
North Korea may delay the process, but analysts said it must come up with some sort of declaration.
I have to agree with this too, because Kim Jong Il is the type to do stuff when he is damn good and ready. His hallmark is to ruffle his feathers, balk and play games. It’s been that way for decades. This is just more of the same stuff, and if something different comes along, color me very surprised.
One Free Korea and ROK Drop has more.
*******************************************************************************
Beijing will soon allow more than 40 North Korean refugees sheltering at foreign missions in China to leave for South Korea and the United States, a report said Sunday.
China usually forcibly repatriates North Korean refugees, whom it regards as economic migrants, even though they often face harsh punishment on their return home.
South Korea’s Yonhap news agency, quoting unnamed sources in Beijing, said the Chinese government had decided to allow them to leave to prevent the issue overshadowing the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
Ah, what a opportunistic time to all of a sudden care for North Koreans looking for freedom. As the article said, China regularly deports North Koreans and right back into the lion’s den. This is a good step forward, and will most likely save 40 lives. This is good news. The bad news is, will this last? Most likely not. I have to see this as a ploy of “See! We care for North Koreans. Do not boycott the Olympics now!” However, I have to also say even if China were to send the 40 North Koreans back, it would have not made much of a difference anyway, because most people will not even know or care about the defectors. There are games to watch.
China has been in talks over the fate of 20 North Korean defectors sheltering in the South Korean embassy compound and 23 others under the protection of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in Beijing, according to Yonhap.
[...]
Despite its rare permission for the North Koreans to seek asylum, Beijing plans to beef up its crackdown on illegal North Koreans ahead of the Olympics, Yonhap said.
Hah, so it is business as usual. Nothing to see here folks, move along.
Sphere: Related Content
This should come as no surprise whatsoever. According to the Chosun Ilbo:
North Korea claims that nuclear fuel and a cooling tower are not subject to disablement of nuclear facilities under a six-nation agreement signed in February, it emerged Saturday. According to diplomatic sources in Washington, a U.S. delegation of nuclear experts has visited North Korea several times, demanding the North dispose of unused nuclear fuel and destroy the nuclear cooling tower during the disablement stage.
(Emphasis and link mine) I had a feeling something would come along such as this. North Korea is always on this cat and mouse game, and on top of not coming clean with the uranium enrichment found on the tubes, now this. I am wondering how Washington and the other six-party members are going to react on this. At this stage of the game, it is too early to say, but one thing is crystal clear: The deadline is ticking down to the wire, and North Korea balks at the last second despite all the promises made before. When are people going to learn that Kim Jong Il cannot be trusted?
Continue reading ‘Kim Jong Il does not want to give up nuclear fuel and other news’
Sphere: Related ContentI saw this press conference on C-Span earlier today and found it pretty interesting. Have a watch (about 45 mins.), and decide for yourself what is between the lines:
Specific to North Korea (Full transcript here):
In East Asia, we have made progress this year toward our goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. After agreeing to implement the September 2005 joint statement, North Korea shut down and is now disabling its Yongbyon facilities. We expect North Korea to honor the pledge it made in the six-party talks, to make a complete and accurate declaration of all its nuclear programs. Of course, other challenges and flashpoints of conflict remain in East Asia and we will monitor those closely. In the Taiwan Strait, for example, the United States remains committed to peace and security. We oppose any threat to use force and any unilateral move by either side to change the status quo. We have a One China policy and we do not support independence for Taiwan.
Which goes along with the previous post I made and is making a buzz around the Internet and blogs. The Taiwan issue is interesting and I want to study that further. If other readers have more information and/or background on this, I would be interested. It goes a little further on the issue:
As we have stated in recent months, we think that Taiwan’s referendum to apply to the United Nations under the name “Taiwan” is a provocative policy. It unnecessarily raises tensions in the Taiwan Strait and it promises no real benefits for the people of Taiwan on the international stage. That is why we oppose this referendum.
I guess that makes some sense, but I am not too sure about the broader picture or the history of this issue. Anyway, going back to the nuclear issue, six-party talks and North Korea, with a lot of tight-lipness, a reporter asks about the uranium found in centrifuges:
QUESTION: I’m wondering if you can tell us what you think the significance is of the discovery of enriched uranium on these — the samples of aluminum tubes from the North Koreans. Will this complicate the six-party process and will it — does it raise any flags ahead of the declaration which they are supposed to present in about 10 days?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, I’m not going to comment on specific reports or certainly on intelligence matters, but we have been very clear that we expect a declaration from North Korea that is complete and that is accurate. As you know, we have long been concerned about highly enriched uranium as an alternative route in North Korea and so we expect there to be a declaration that is complete and accurate. I also want to note that there is a considerable diplomatic effort underway not just by the United States, but by other members of the six-party talks to make certain that we can complete this second phase, both with the disablement, which I should underscore is going very well, and with the declaration. I sincerely hope that we’ll — it’ll be by the end of the year. But the key here is to get the process right and we’re going to stay at this until we get it right.
There was some hesitation and seemed open ended when making this statement. That was just my take on it, but like anything North Korea, it is still up in the air on what kind of card North Korea will play next. The ball is clearly in their court right now, and what they will say is unclear at the moment. As stated before, I kind of doubt North Korea will admit any uranium enrichment program. How others including the United States will react to such a thing (if it happens) is another thing altogether. If there is evidence of such activity, how will it affect the talks? That is something I am really interested in seeing taking place. However, Condi seems very mum about any details as expected.
And another question about Iran and North Korea:
QUESTION: Do you — can I ask you a follow-up? Do you see opportunities to visit countries like North Korea and Iran and Syria before the end of your term if they were to significantly improve their (inaudible)?
SECRETARY RICE: Look, we don’t have permanent enemies; the United States doesn’t. What we have is a policy that is open to ending conflict and confrontation with any country that is willing to meet us on those terms. And we’ve given very clear paths with our allies. It’s not a unilateral U.S. policy, but with our allies, we’ve given very clear paths and very clear pathways for improving relations with all of those countries. If, in fact, we continue on a path of completing the next stages on North Korean denuclearization, if the denuclearization continues, then the agreement that we signed in September 2005 and the February 19th agreement of last year is very clear on a pathway toward better political relations between the United States and North Korea. And there can be many different opportunities within that context of improved relations.
And on Iran, I continue to say that if Iran will just do the one thing that is required of it by the Security Council resolutions that have been passed, and that is suspend its enrichment and reprocessing activities, then I’m prepared to meet my counterpart anyplace and anytime and anywhere and we can talk about anything. So let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s see if countries are prepared to take that path. But the United States doesn’t have permanent enemies. We’re too great a country for that.
So there is the carrot. Will North Korea take it? Time will tell on that one.
Sphere: Related Content
As expected, North Korea is dragging its feet on disclosing any current and past nuclear activities despite the “trust me” story they would do so by the end of this year. To add insult to injury, reports indicate scientists found traces of uranium were found. According to the Washington Post:
U.S. scientists have discovered traces of enriched uranium on smelted aluminum tubing provided by North Korea, apparently contradicting Pyongyang’s denial that it had a clandestine nuclear program, according to U.S. and diplomatic sources.
(Emphasis mine) As always, North Korea denies a lot of things especially its nuclear programs. This case should be no different nor surprising. In any case, if the reports are true North Korea has been enriching uranium, it does complicate the process. Thus, the denials and accusations are stepped up along with added snags in the already sticky negotiations process. In my opinion, North Korea will not open up, will most likely only cherry pick what they want to disclose, and since nobody knows what is really going on inside North Korea, all outsiders can do is (again) go on a “trust me” basis. This gives Kim a lot of leeway, and everybody knows it. So if uranium has been found, how does this change the field in the negotiations process? The article gives us a little more detail:
Continue reading ‘North Korea, uranium, denials and dragging feet: The missing Team America scene’
Sphere: Related ContentSometimes, I do not understand the mindset of the UN, since it does not really do anything other than write angry letters. In the latest resolution, they seem to have mounting concerns over human rights abuses in North Korea (which is as obvious as the sun comes up). The question is, what do they plan to do about it? Looks like a lot of nothing (Associated Press article):
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The U.N. General Assembly adopted a resolution Tuesday expressing “very serious concern” at reports of widespread human rights violations in North Korea, including torture and public executions.
The resolution is not legally binding but carries moral weight and reflects the majority view of world opinion.
(Emphasis mine) Um, it is not legally binding, which means a whole lot of nothing. Sure, UN members can be angry and discuss how crappy the human rights record is in North Korea, but it still does not stop the executions, starvation, lack of free speech and movement. Therefore, what good does a UN resolution do for the folks living behind the barbed wire? They will not see the concern, nor will they see any result from it. That kind of bothers me.
Continue reading ‘Opinion - UN Concerned about human rights abuses: North Korea scoffs’
Sphere: Related Content
One Free Korea
Recent Comments