Chris Hill discusses the state of the six party talks. From the Department of State, there are two somewhat fresh transcripts. The first is in regards to the incomplete declaration, and in my opinion, not a lot has been done on this front as for what the consequences are for failure of not giving that declaration. What can be done as punishment is unclear to me as well, but in all, Kim Jong Il is dragging his feet, and he most likely also knows not a lot can be done other than suspending goodies to which Kim Jong Il claims is our fault. I seriously doubt Kim Jong Il is going to give the declaration anytime soon because of the stepping up of the increased tensions between the ROK and the DPRK, but this is of Kim Jong Il’s doing. North Korea does not see it this way, but that is no surprise.
In particular we need to know what the plutonium situation is, but also we know that DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) was engaged in procurements of things for uranium enrichment, so we need to know that status. We also need to know what has gone on with any foreign nuclear cooperation. And we need to know that, it is, first of all, what went on and secondly that it stopped and thirdly that it won’t be done again.
I’ve said many times that we’re very concerned about time. We’re very concerned that we really need this wrapped up by the end of March,and here it is already after the end of March. So we’ll have to see whether we can hear anything new from the DPRK on this in the next few days.
and the second transcript:
Obviously these are sorts of comments that are just inappropriate for discussing relations with other states. I don’t think there’s anything people in the ROK and the U.S. need to be too concerned about, I think we should probably not overreact to comments that really have no basis and fact, and seem to be entirely propagandistic and aimed at domestic audiences whoever they are.
If you’ve been to in the States lately you’ll know it’s quite a political season. We have several political candidates running for the president. Absolutely nobody has suggested they want this problem. Nobody has suggested they are interested in giving the DPRK a better deal, than the one we put on the table. So I would say, from the DPRK’s point of view, it’s time to settle now.
We need to get that declaration as Ambassador Chun said, we really have lost a lot of time in this process and we need to go forward.
I must say as difficult as the declaration is, I think the next phase would be more even difficult as we try to get North Korea to finally do away with its nuclear ambitions, and so we have a lot of work to do and frankly speaking, we’re really at the point where we need this declaration very soon.
The question is how soon? Also, what will happen if they do not give the declaration? Yes, it would be very, very nice to see North Korea finally cooperate, but has that happened yet? Hell no, it has been that way since the beginning. The first phase of the Yongbyon has not been completed yet, and Kim is taking all the time he can not to finish it, yet wants more aid to move forward.
In the meantime, Lee appears to want to stop the spigot of unchecked/unconditional aid, and as a result, Kim Jong Il has stepped up the rhetoric. I mean he has sent MiG’s tested some missiles and the KCNA has threatened action. If they follow through with the threat is another thing, and I doubt it will happen because if the MiG’s or whatever else is sent across the DMZ, all hell will break loose and the world does not need to continue the Korean War. I am very sure Kim Jong Il is very aware of this. Another thing is, it would also be suicide in my opinion, because how can he start a war without sufficient fuel, food and no support of the Soviet Union since it has been gone since 1991? Furthermore, will China step in the fray the second time around? I do not even want to contemplate it. Oh, and do not forget the proximity of Seoul.
I think this is just a war of words, and it seems the ROK is not very worried about it. However, as a continuation of the Korean War is unlikely (not impossible), it does not mean Kim is in the position of being cooperative. So, what is proposed to move this forward?
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