Archive for the 'News' Category

Cooling towers, declarations, and more mayhem

Published
by
Jack
on May 3, 2008
in Diplomacy, News, North Korea, Nukes, ROK and United States
. 0 Comments

North Korea appears to have agreed to destroy the cooling tower at Yongbyon within 24 hours of being removed from the U.S. list of states that sponsor terrorism Accoring to the Washington Post:

[...]

North Korean officials had privately indicated previously they would destroy the tower as part of the disablement of Yongbyon. During talks last week with a top U.S. State Department official, Sung Kim, North Korea reaffirmed it would act quickly after Pyongyang is removed from the terrorism list.

During the talks, North Korean officials also tentatively agreed to release to U.S. officials thousands of pages of documents, dating back to 1990, concerning the daily production records of the facility. The records are intended to help U.S. experts determine how much plutonium was produced at the facility and thus verify North Korean claims.

The destruction of the tower as stated in the article would be one hell of a show, but as Richardson pointed out in his post at DPRK Studies, there are some problems with the so-called deal struck:

That is very nice, but I am more concerned with what North Korea is still not offering up; 1) what’s actually called for in the deal - a full and complete nuclear declaration; 2) unfettered access (including material samples) to all known and suspected nuclear facilities; 3) information and materials to ascertain the true status of North Korea’s uranium program, including the equipment known to have been sent from Pakistan, and the fate of some thousands of aluminum tubes purchased by North Korea.

I have to agree there are serious problems and raises questions. All of those points made made by Richardson implies the devil is in the details and according to the article, and nobody outside the negotiating table knows the details because

The diplomats spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack declined to comment “on ongoing negotiations,” he said.

Another interesting detail:

[...] though experts say its destruction would be mostly symbolic.

[...] Several months ago, North Korean technicians broke through the concrete bottom of the tower, making it unusable, but hot water could still be dumped directly in a nearby river if North Korea were unconcerned about possible ecological damage. Other aspects of the disabling of the facility are more significant; U.S. officials say they think that North Korea would need to order months of repairs if it wanted to restart it.

Apparently, if North Korea really wanted to restart it, I guess they could use the river to send hot water out and maybe pump cold water back in much like the reported nuclear facility in Syria (the evidence seems pretty convincing to me, but it is under heavy scrutiny), but to get it back up and running (from what I understand) could take a while to do along with placing the other items set aside wrapped in plastic and the like. I am not a nuclear plant expert, but from the pictures I posted quite a while back, it seems it is well taken apart (although not destroyed). Now, this is just Yongbyon. This is old technology, is in very bad repair, and this to me seems like a smokescreen. As Richardson implied, what about everything else?

Again, this is going to be based on a “trust me” basis to believe Kim Jong Il will be a good boy and cooperate. So far, he has not held his end of the deals and continually drags his feet while the rest of the crew at the negotiating table look like the fool. In my opinion, North Korea is very good at grabbing the carrot and running back in the cave. This part of the article bothers me:

Under a tentative deal struck between Washington and Pyongyang, North Korea will be removed from the terrorism list and from a second sanction — the Trading With the Enemy Act — once it produces a declaration of its nuclear activities. U.S. officials have especially been focused on the plutonium segment of the declaration, telling Pyongyang that it need only “acknowledge” U.S. evidence and concerns about two other issues: its nuclear dealings with Syria and a suspected uranium-enrichment program.

Then what? North Korea could concede and say “Yeah, we got all of the things you describe” but will all the materials remain there? This seems to imply if North Korea does acknowledge the things Washington (and others) want will have to trust Kim not to use them again. I simply do not understand the thought process here. Also as Richardson said in his points, nobody will need to go out there and physically verify everything that is suspected to be another program? Also, the deal obviously does not include biological or chemical weapons described by a Camp 22 guard who defected and described these items getting tested on prisoners. It all seems like a farce to me. Also, what worries me is once North Korea is removed from the sponsors of terror list and Trading With the Enemy Act, does that mean North Korea is free to trade without oversight? Something is really wrong here.

As said before, the Syrian connection is under heavy questioning:

US intelligence officials also accuse North Korea of giving clandestine help to Syria for the construction of a supposed nuclear plant destroyed last September by an Israeli air strike.

But Mr Kelly questioned some of those claims. “There does seem to have been some degree of nuclear co-operation with the Syrians, which is going to raise a lot of questions,” he said.

“But the story they’re building a reactor like Yongbyon — nobody would want a reactor like Yongbyon. This is 1968 technology, not well put together.”

He added that without a reprocessing plant to enrich nuclear fuel, it was unlikely Syria could develop an atomic weapon.

So what is the real story in Syria if it was not used for research or other peaceful means? If it is thrown out there for the sake of blocking taking North Korea off these lists, what else is going on? Again, something is not right.

Also see One Free Korea.

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KPA officer defection: not something you hear about everyday (update)

Published
by
Jack
on April 28, 2008
in Defectors, News, North Korea and ROK
. 0 Comments

Update: See One Free Korea and ROK Drop

Here is something you do not see everyday (Yonhap):

SEOUL, April 28 (Yonhap) — A North Korean soldier has defected to South Korea through the inter-Korean border, marking the first defection by a military officer via the heavily-fortified border in 10 years, an official at the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Monday.

The North Korean, identified only by his surname Ri, crossed the border shortly before 5 p.m. Sunday and told South Korean guards that he was seeking asylum, the official said, asking not to be identified.

The 28-year-old second lieutenant has been handed over to a joint investigation team of the National Intelligence Service, the Military Security Command and the police, according to the official.

He had serious cajones to cross the DMZ. While this is not the first time for crossings, it is very risky and pretty rare. I have heard of other defections across the DMZ, this is the first time I have seen it in the new news. According to the same Yonhap article the last defection was around 1998, but an enlisted crossed lat year? I never saw anything about that, so I will have to look that up:

The North Korean is the first commissioned officer to defect to South Korea through the border since 1998 when a first lieutenant crossed the border, according to JCS officials. An enlisted member of the North’s Korean People’s Army crossed the border last year.

Do crossings along the DMZ only count for officers? I am not very clear on that, but all the same, it is still pretty interesting. Furthermore, I am also wondering where he crossed and what prompted him to cross. While I can guess he was tired of the regime, the details would be very interesting. I will keep my eyes peeled on more information. The minefield, the electric fence and the border guards would mean this man must of been itching to cross obviously.

If other readers have more information about this defection, please let me know.

Update - One Free Korea did a little more digging around and found some links to some DailyNK sources to help explain the defection which is likely linked to the serious food problem. Food prices all around the world have skyrocketed and is causing civil unrest according to the UN, and if free and relatively free nations are facing a crisis of a magnitude worthy of a mention on front page news, just imagine the difficulties for the DPRK who suffer serious shortages, little international trade and diplomatic ties to begin with.

Now as I posted here many times before, the KPA, elites and policy elites in North Korea keep the regime going, and if the state cannot provide food even for them, how can they continue to keep the normal population in check? Common sense tells me it is very difficult to do so. As the food situation seems to worsen (I do not know why the food problem is worldwide), North Korea on a cash and carry only basis surely cannot import food and aid has slowed to a small trickle. A+B=C; People will be malnourished and will look for food elsewhere.

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No protests in Pyongyang leg of the Olympic torch relay? Who knew!

Published
by
Jack
on April 28, 2008
in Diplomacy, News, North Korea, Other Regimes and ROK
. 2 Comments

Also see ROK Drop, One Free Korea, and Marmots.

Protest is not in the North Korean dictionary, and the headline produced by the Associated Press made me laugh out loud.

North Korea’s first torch runner Pak Du Ik, carrying the Olympic torch, sets out for a relay through the streets of Pyongyang, at a ceremony held at the capital’s Tower of the Juche Idea on Monday April 28, 2008. The Olympic torch launched its first-ever run Monday in authoritarian North Korea, where the flame was assured of a trouble-free trip unlike other stops worldwide.

Emphasis mine. This is news of the century and is fit to be printed worldwide. North Korea does not have protests! It is amazing! It is unbelievable! Oh wait a moment; it is obvious as the sun rising in the morning. While the news of the Olympic torch relay is the first ever for North Korea, it is strictly controlled. Yawn, what a surprise.

[...]

An attentive and peaceful crowd of thousands watched the start of the relay in Pyongyang, some waving Chinese flags, in live footage from broadcaster APTN. The event was presided over by the head of the country’s rubber-stamp parliament who often acts as a ceremonial state leader, Kim Yong Nam.

Hm, they better be attentive and peaceful or face the wrath. There is no choice, no dissent, no protest, no wavering. Everything in North Korea is well on message and again is no surprise. if it were any different, it would be real news.

The North, an ally of its communist neighbor China, has been critical of disruptions to the torch relay elsewhere and has supported Beijing in its crackdown against violent protests in Tibet. North Korea is one of the world’s most tightly controlled countries, where citizens are not allowed to travel freely and civil rights are restricted by the iron-fisted regime.

Yawn again. Maybe the bigger news was Kim Jong Il was not seen at the event. Then again, maybe it is not such huge news because Kim Jong Il does not really care. The Juche Tower is probably the biggest news of all. I mean that place is almost as sacred as Kim Il Sung Square.

The relay began from beneath the large sculpted flame that tops the obelisk of the Juche Tower, which commemorates the national ideology of “self-reliance” created by the country’s late founding President Kim Il Sung, father of current leader Kim Jong Il. Kim Jong Il was not seen at the event.

He must of been watching it on TV or surfing the Internet. An interesting part of this story is this:

The U.N. children’s agency UNICEF had been asked to participate in the North Korean leg of the relay but withdrew in March, saying that it wasn’t sure the event would help its mission of raising awareness of conditions for children.

Why would they be asked to participate in the first place? Reading this report by Reuters gave some indication on why they were asked in the first place:

UNICEF had been asked to participate in the Pyongyang leg of the relay by the International Olympic Committee (IOC), which said that North Korea had been “unable to identify a Korean national” to take part in the run, de Bono said.

According to the Sunday Times of London, the newspaper that first reported the news of UNICEF’s decision, there were concerns that the relay would be used by Pyongyang as a “propaganda stunt” in the reclusive communist state.

I have to agree it would have been used for propaganda, and I believe it would have been better just to stay the hell out of it because going to a relay in North Korea is not going to raise awareness for the plight of children in the DPRK. In fact, why would the DPRK even allow them to show up on that basis? It sounds absurd to me. At the end of the day, UNICEF can be there, but the children are still starving. A torch is not going to help them at all. While no protests happened in the DPRK, protests happened in the ROK:

On Sunday, clashes broke out in Seoul near the relay start between a group of 500 Chinese supporters and about 50 demonstrators criticizing Beijing’s policies, carrying a banner reading, “Free North Korean refugees in China.” The students threw stones and water bottles as some 2,500 police tried to keep the two sides apart.

One Chinese student swatted at the demonstrators with a flagpole. Another student was arrested for allegedly throwing rocks, police said.

Sounds pretty bad, and does not look very good either. North Korea will not have any of that. After all, they are friends. What a bore.

Police said four other people were arrested for trying to disrupt the relay

Authorities deployed some 8,000 police — some riding horses and bicycles — to protect the torch.

One North Korean defector poured gasoline on himself in the middle of a street along the route and tried to set himself on fire, but police quickly surrounded him and carried him away. The man, 45-year-old Son Jong Hoon, had led an unsuccessful public campaign to save his brother from execution in the North, where he was accused of spying after the two met secretly in China.

South Korea’s Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Yong-joon expressed strong regret over the clashes in a meeting Monday with China’s ambassador to Seoul, Ning Fukui.

Ning also said he regretted the “extreme behavior” by some young Chinese and expressed his sympathies to police and a journalist who was injured, the South’s Foreign Ministry said.

In all- what a mess, and in the end, fruitless.

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CIA report on the North Korea/Syrian connection (Update 3)

Published
by
Jack
on April 24, 2008
in News, North Korea, Nukes, Other Regimes and Video
. 0 Comments

This is all over the news, so there is not a lot for me to add. Here is a report by the AP:

The rebuttal from Al-Jazeera:

Timeline from AP:

Timeline of North Korea’s nuclear weapons activities:

_ 1994: North Korea and the United States sign an agreement under which the North shuts down its plutonium-based nuclear reactor in exchange for help building two “light water” nuclear reactors for producing electricity.

_ Sept. 17, 1999: President Clinton agrees to first major easing of economic sanctions against North Korea since the Korean War’s end in 1953.

_ Jan. 29, 2002: President Bush labels North Korea, Iran and Iraq an “axis of evil.”

_ Oct. 4, 2002: North Korea tells visiting U.S. delegation it has a uranium enrichment program, Washington says.

_ Nov. 21, 2002: U.S.-led consortium says it is suspending construction of light water reactors.

_ Dec. 28, 2002: North Korea orders U.N. nuclear inspectors to leave the country.

_ Jan. 11, 2003: North Korea withdraws from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

_ Feb. 26, 2003: North Korea is reported to have restarted Yongbyon reactor, which U.S. officials say was designed to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons but which North Korea maintains is for energy production.

_ Aug. 27-29, 2003: North Korea joins first round of six-nation nuclear talks in Beijing, which include China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the U.S., which continue periodically over the next several years.

_ Feb. 10, 2005: North Korea announces it has nuclear weapons.

_ July 5, 2006: North Korea launches seven missiles into the Sea of Japan, prompting a U.N. Security Council resolution to condemn it.

_ Oct. 9, 2006: North Korea says it has conducted its first-ever nuclear test.

_ Oct. 14, 2006: U.N. Security Council unanimously adopts a resolution imposing wide-ranging economic and diplomatic sanctions on North Korea for its nuclear test.

_ Feb. 13, 2007: North Korea agrees at six-nation talks on initial steps to disarmament.

_ July. 14, 2007: North Korea says it has shut down its Yongbyon plutonium-reactor. IAEA inspectors arrive in Pyongyang.

_ Aug. 17, 2007: The IAEA says its agents have confirmed the shutdown of four nuclear facilities at Yongbyon and an unfinished nuclear power plant at Taechon.

_ Sept. 2, 2007: The U.S. says North Korea agreed during talks in Geneva to declare and disable its nuclear programs by the end of the year — the first time it has offered a timeline.

_ Sept. 6, 2007: Israeli warplanes bomb a Syrian nuclear reactor site allegedly built with North Korean design help.

_ Oct. 3, 2007: The six parties agree that North Korea will provide a complete list of its nuclear programs and disable its facilities and its main reactor by Dec. 31.

_ Nov. 5, 2007, North Korea starts disabling the Yongbyon reactor under the watch of U.S. experts.

_ Dec. 31, 2007: North Korea misses its deadline for declaring all its nuclear programs.

_ Feb. 22, 2008: North Korea opens its main nuclear reactor in Yongbyon to foreign media for the first time. American researchers say North Korean officials told them they had slowed the removal of fuel rods because the United States and other nations fell behind in supplying aid promised under the disarmament deal.

_ March 28, 2008: North Korea test-fires a barrage of short-range missiles in an apparent angry response to the new South Korean government’s tougher stance on Pyongyang.

_ April 24, 2008: The White House breaks its silence and says North Korea assisted Syria’s secret nuclear program and that the nuclear reactor destroyed by Israel was not intended for “peaceful purposes.”

Update: see One Free Korea’s post. Very good read.

Update: See ROK Drop.

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I will believe it when I see it

Published
by
Jack
on April 16, 2008
in Diplomacy, Kim Jong Il, News, North Korea, Nukes, ROK and United States
. 0 Comments

Yet another report regarding Kim Jong Il giving a declaration has presented itself, and anything regarding that has me skeptical. According to Bloomberg:

April 16 (Bloomberg) — North Korea will submit a list of its nuclear programs and materials by the end of this month, the Hankook Ilbo newspaper reported, citing an unidentified South Korean government official.

Hm, really? I will believe it when I see it. So far, all the promises for a declaration have all been for naught for a really long time, and if the DPRK does finally give some declaration, I would be very, very surprised. On the other hand, for a more detailed version of how the talks progressed to maybe, just maybe to get to this point can be found on OFK. After reading that, it seemed pretty clear to me Kim will still get what he wants in the end. Kim knows damn well nothing happened for nothing delivered in December, so why should he worry about delivering a declaration by the end of this month? What changed in the agreement to change his mind and be a good boy? In my opinion, nothing at all. The entire process has been a disaster just like the times before.

The U.S. will start talks on removing North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism once the communist nation provides the declaration, the Seoul-based newspaper cited the official as saying. The steps are part of an agreement reached by the two countries in talks in Singapore last week, it said.

Emphasis mine. Now North Korea giving a declaration at the end of this month is one thing, but as Joshua has pointed out, Why should North Korea get deleted from the list of terror when Kim practices terror? As the post suggested:

[...]

So have you heard that Kim Jong Il will celebrate his removal from the list of state sponsors of terrorism … by firing off more missiles?

U.S. military authorities have been closely watching the North Korean arm since spotting signs of lively activity at a missile launch site in North Korea, CNN reported Friday. Quoting two U.S. military officers, the channel reported satellite photos recently spotted personnel, vehicles and materials moving toward the Rodong missile base in Shinori, north of Pyongyang. Rodong-1 missiles with a range of 1,300 km capable of striking most of the Japanese islands are reportedly deployed at the Shinori site. [Chosun Ilbo]

I’m at a loss for words. North Korea throws an extortionate fit, even threatens to turn Seoul to “ashes” – all of which is clearly calculated to intimidate South Korean voters just before an election – and we reward them by declaring them not to be sponsors of terror. (To be precise, the North Koreans aren’t sponsoring terrorism, they’re practicing terrorism. There should be a separate list for nations that engage in this kind of direct, retail terrorism. Naturally, our State Department overlooked that).

[...]

While I doubt North Korea is stupid enough to launch missiles and restart the Korean War, the rhetoric has been stepped up. While we never know what Kim is thinking and what he will do next, his temper tantrums seem to get what he wants in the end by ruffling his feathers. So we eventually give in. What is next in this saga of diplomacy? It is hard to say, but to remove North Korea from the list of terrorists is insane. Many will disagree with me on this, but that is how I feel. Kim Jong Il has played the international community once again.

Now for the big IF:

The six nations may meet for talks in the middle of next month if the declaration is provided and negotiations on North Korea’s removal from the U.S. list begin, Hankook Ilbo reported.

The question is, what if Kim decides not to declare his nukes? Is he willing to give them up to shore his crumbling regime, major food shortage and looming disassociation by his own people so they can survive? They are turning to marketization despite his efforts to curtail it. Maybe he needs to think about all that, but it is very doubtful he will. Time will tell what he does next, and I will be interested to see where this goes next.

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The Path To Collapse: The beginning of the end of communism in Cuba

Published
by
Jack
on April 13, 2008
in Communism, Humanitarian Topic, News and Other Regimes
. 4 Comments

According to the New York Times, Raul Castro seems to be loosening hard-line state controls:

HAVANA (AP) — Thousands of Cubans will be able to get title to state-owned homes under regulations published Friday, a step that could lay the groundwork for broader housing reform.

The measure was the first legal decree formally published since Raúl Castro succeeded his brother Fidel as president in February. It came a day after state television said the government would also do away with wage limits, allowing state employees to earn as much they can as an incentive to productivity.

[...]

Emphasis and link removal mine. This, in my opinion, is the beginning of the end of the hard-line communist rule in Cuba. It does not mean it is the end of the regime or the state, but It could happen, and could take years. However, like anything else, it is hard to say how things will go, and when/how things could happen. However, I am an optimist, and I have a lot of hopes for the future of Cuba. I look forward to true free elections, speech, religion and free enterprise. If one looks back in history, it appears to be well on that path. To be sure, there are many possibilities on the ultimate fate of Cuba be in the regime, the state or both, but we can look a little closer to some possibilities in the fantastically written paper, Projecting Pyongyang:

Between “China’s” Soft Landing and “Romania’s” Crash Landing scenarios, one might also insert another scenario that possesses some aspects of each. This hybrid scenario would closely approximate the experience of Cuba. Like Pyongyang, Havana experienced tremendous economic difficulties in the final days of the Soviet Union and in the aftermath of its patron’s collapse. Like North Korea, Cuba\ confronted an economic crisis of monumental proportions as subsidies and credit from Soviet bloc countries evaporated. The Castro regime adopted ad hoc reforms in piecemeal fashion starting in the early 1990s. But Cuba and North Korea do seem to have much in common, including the fact that both regimes are in a holding pattern of sorts, ruled by dynasties wherein the current dictator’s days are clearly numbered. In each case, there appear to be clear limits to the change possible in the immediate future. In early 2008, Fidel Castro, who had been plagued by medical problems, handed over the reigns of power formally to his younger brother and designated successor, Raul. Fidel, who turned 81 years old in August 2007, remains the dominant political figure in Cuba, although Raul is in charge of the day-to-day affairs of state. Once Fidel Castro and Kim Jong Il pass completely from the scenes of their respective countries, there is likely to be far greater scope for change.

This appears to be pretty accurate, and I am pretty surprised to see such reforms in the fact Fidel Castro is still alive (barely), but I also have to say the reforms are not sweeping (yet). Some of these reforms remind me of the old Soviet Union and Gorby’s reforms of perestroika and glasnost just before the dissolution in 1991. To be sure, Raul Castro has recently allowed people cell phones, DVD players and the like, when before, was heavily censored [Reuters]:

[...] Cuban President Raul Castro has introduced a series of reforms to raise food output and end what he called “excessive prohibitions” in communist Cuba.

Yes, that seems pretty bold, but I am still skeptical despite the laxing of the rules, but I cannot help but to smile. I really believe I am seeing history in the making:

The following are some of the reforms undertaken so far:

* Decentralized agriculture to allow private farmers more leeway to decide how to use their land, what crops to plant and what supplies to buy. Farmers granted leases to unused land.

* Lifted ban on Cubans buying consumer goods such as computers, DVD players, microwave ovens and other electronic appliances previously prohibited due to energy crisis.

This sounds familiar. It seems the crisis was from the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but according to this report on Boston.com, Hugo Chavez has been supplying Cuba with energy and at the same time using alternate forms of energy because of necessity. In the case of North Korea, The Soviet Union also was a good teat for the regime to suck on, and now that it is gone, is in huge shortage. While they have been getting some help, the stalemate in the six-party talks and other mis-adventures of Kim Jong Il is preventing them from getting the goodies he needs. Kim Jong Il does not have many friends, and the only one he has left is an arm’s length ally with the length getting longer and longer. So there seems to be some big difference in that respect.

* Cubans can now stay at hotels at beach resorts previously reserved for foreigners only, ending a “tourism apartheid” that was a source of resentment.

This is also interesting. I guess this is like normal North Koreans getting to stay at the hotels in Pyongyang. As for the limits on movement in Cuba is unclear to me, but from the link, it seems the restrictions on movement are not as strict as North Korea, but I am going to have research this more. What is clear, is regular Cuban citizens were not allowed in these places, and now they are, which is pretty significant to me. The downside is, a lot of Cubans do not have two centavos to rub together, so even if they are allowed, it may be out of reach in the immediate short term.

* As of April 14, Cubans will be allowed to freely buy and use cellular telephones, a service that only government officials and foreign companies had access to until now.

The freedom of communication. That is another step in right direction. I am also wondering of this includes allowance of receiving foreign broadcasts (this link appears to not be the case at the time of that writing which was early February, but on April 2, Raul has expended that allowance, but is not sweeping). All the same, to be allowed to have cell phones seems significant despite the economic divide of normal citizens and the elite.

* Reduced bureaucracy for filling medical prescriptions and began revamping family doctor program in response to public complaints it was understaffed.

Hm, I guess Michael Moore was wrong in regards to Cuba’s health care system being second to none. If it was so great, then there would have been no reason to reform, right? In any case, there is more [Associated Press]:

HAVANA (AP) — It’s not the stuff of Lenin or Marx, or even of Fidel Castro, but it’s hardly free-market capitalism, either. In fact, steps to encourage a Cuban spending spree may help the communist system and its new president survive.

In rapid-fire decrees over the past week, Raul Castro’s government has done away with some despised restrictions, lifting bans on electric appliances, microwaves and computers, inviting average citizens to enter long-forbidden resorts and declaring they can even legally have their own cell phones.

More could be on the way. Rumors are rampant the government could ease travel restrictions and tolerate free enterprise that would let more people start their own small businesses. And hopes that it will tweak the dual-currency system that puts foreign products out of reach for most Cubans have sparked a run on the peso.

“We’re going to get out and buy more and more,” said retiree Roberto Avila. “That’s the future in Cuba, and it is a strong future.”

Cuba is still far from a buyers’ paradise. Nearly everyone holds government jobs, earning an average of $19.50 a month, though many get dollars from tourism jobs or relatives abroad. It would take the average Cuban five months to earn enough to buy a low-end DVD player that an American could buy with five hours of minimum-wage work.

I have to agree it is not capitalism yet, and I also agree the haves and have-nots are already apparent in the face of these reforms because as I said before, most Cubans are very poor, and cannot afford a cell phone, microwave or a stay at a foreign hotel. Perhaps once the wage cap has been removed, maybe it will be in reach later, but immediately, it does not seem that way. On the other hand, as with all change in places like Cuba and other former communist states, change does not happen overnight. Going back to the NYT article:

By law, Cubans still are not permitted to sell their homes to anyone but the government, though they may swap housing with government approval — a process that can take years.

Two officials at Cuba’s National Housing Institute, who insisted on not being named because they were not authorized to speak to the foreign news media, said the new law was probably the first in a series of housing reforms.

I cannot see that law lasting forever, but I am curious to see what else comes down the pike as far as the housing reforms go. As for the wages:

[...] Ariel Terrero, a commentator on state television, said a resolution approved in February but not yet published would remove salary caps intended to promote social and economic equality, allowing state employees to earn as much they can.

That also appears to be good news, but change of that magnitude can take take time to change over, but in all, could close the gap of the have and have-nots. In what time frame is unclear, but again, I cannot see it happening overnight. Also, what path Raul Castro wants to go with reforms are unclear as well, and I will have to wait and see what else is in store.

In conclusion, Cuba is far from a democracy and has a long way to go. On the other hand, it does seem to me the cracks are very clear in the once hard-line state. I am very interested in seeing what else happens. As things are going the way they are now, I cannot help but to think that Raul in the quest for stability may actually be bringing the inevitable path to collapse. Not a hard landing mind you, but a hybrid as Projecting Pyongyang suggested.

The question posed today: Is Raul Castro Cuba’s Gorbachev?

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Syrian strike details to be released later this month

Published
by
Jack
on April 6, 2008
in News, North Korea, Nukes, Other Regimes, Speculation and United States
. 0 Comments

I am very curious to see what the details will be. According to The Press Association:

Israel and the US are co-ordinating the release of details of a mysterious Israeli air force strike in Syria, according to reports.

The Haaretz newspaper says US officials might disclose details of the Sept 6 strike later this month during congressional hearings.

The Yediot Ahronot newspaper reported that the matter would come up April 17 before the congressional Committee on Foreign Relations.

Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev would not comment on the Haaretz report.

But Israeli security officials told The Associated Press that they object to any release of details to the committee, which is to hear testimony on North Korea’s nuclear programme, including any nuclear activity in Syria.

Israel has maintained almost total silence since the attack, which Syria said hit an unused military installation.

But some foreign reports have claimed that Israel targeted a nuclear installation Syria was building with North Korean assistance.

Damascus denies having an undeclared atomic programme, and North Korea says it was not involved in any such project. Syria did not retaliate for the attack.

The New York Times has reported that the Bush administration knew about the strike before it happened.

According to Haaretz, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the Bush administration think it is now possible to disclose details because in their assessment Syria is unlikely to retaliate at this point.

This is is full of unanswered questions, and I am very surprised the US is going to release the details despite Israeli’s objections. Whatever happened behind closed doors is up for debate and mystery, and if Bush knew of a strike beforehand is unknown to me as well. For some people, the New York Times is not reliable, and maybe some questioned it. Personally, I do not question the NYT because of the paper itself, but I question the whole thing. Syria and North Korea deny any nuclear cooperation of course, but Washington thinks something fishy is going on. That I agree with. What it is, we will find out very soon.

One thing I am not getting is, Syria is unlikely retaliate at this point may be true, but North Korea has ants in their pants. I can see it now; if Washington were to say North Korea has been helping Syria with nuclear weapons, we all know North Korea will increase the sabre rattling. It should get pretty interesting.

Others know more details of this fiasco, and I would keep my eyes peeled on OFK and DPRK Studies.

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Chris Hill on the state of the six-party talks and rhetoric heats up from Kim Jong Il

Published
by
Jack
on April 3, 2008
in Diplomacy, Kim Jong Il, News, North Korea, ROK, United States and Video
. 0 Comments

Chris Hill discusses the state of the six party talks. From the Department of State, there are two somewhat fresh transcripts. The first is in regards to the incomplete declaration, and in my opinion, not a lot has been done on this front as for what the consequences are for failure of not giving that declaration. What can be done as punishment is unclear to me as well, but in all, Kim Jong Il is dragging his feet, and he most likely also knows not a lot can be done other than suspending goodies to which Kim Jong Il claims is our fault. I seriously doubt Kim Jong Il is going to give the declaration anytime soon because of the stepping up of the increased tensions between the ROK and the DPRK, but this is of Kim Jong Il’s doing. North Korea does not see it this way, but that is no surprise.

In particular we need to know what the plutonium situation is, but also we know that DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) was engaged in procurements of things for uranium enrichment, so we need to know that status. We also need to know what has gone on with any foreign nuclear cooperation. And we need to know that, it is, first of all, what went on and secondly that it stopped and thirdly that it won’t be done again.

I’ve said many times that we’re very concerned about time. We’re very concerned that we really need this wrapped up by the end of March,and here it is already after the end of March. So we’ll have to see whether we can hear anything new from the DPRK on this in the next few days.

and the second transcript:

Obviously these are sorts of comments that are just inappropriate for discussing relations with other states. I don’t think there’s anything people in the ROK and the U.S. need to be too concerned about, I think we should probably not overreact to comments that really have no basis and fact, and seem to be entirely propagandistic and aimed at domestic audiences whoever they are.

If you’ve been to in the States lately you’ll know it’s quite a political season. We have several political candidates running for the president. Absolutely nobody has suggested they want this problem. Nobody has suggested they are interested in giving the DPRK a better deal, than the one we put on the table. So I would say, from the DPRK’s point of view, it’s time to settle now.

We need to get that declaration as Ambassador Chun said, we really have lost a lot of time in this process and we need to go forward.

I must say as difficult as the declaration is, I think the next phase would be more even difficult as we try to get North Korea to finally do away with its nuclear ambitions, and so we have a lot of work to do and frankly speaking, we’re really at the point where we need this declaration very soon.

The question is how soon? Also, what will happen if they do not give the declaration? Yes, it would be very, very nice to see North Korea finally cooperate, but has that happened yet? Hell no, it has been that way since the beginning. The first phase of the Yongbyon has not been completed yet, and Kim is taking all the time he can not to finish it, yet wants more aid to move forward.

In the meantime, Lee appears to want to stop the spigot of unchecked/unconditional aid, and as a result, Kim Jong Il has stepped up the rhetoric. I mean he has sent MiG’s tested some missiles and the KCNA has threatened action. If they follow through with the threat is another thing, and I doubt it will happen because if the MiG’s or whatever else is sent across the DMZ, all hell will break loose and the world does not need to continue the Korean War. I am very sure Kim Jong Il is very aware of this. Another thing is, it would also be suicide in my opinion, because how can he start a war without sufficient fuel, food and no support of the Soviet Union since it has been gone since 1991? Furthermore, will China step in the fray the second time around? I do not even want to contemplate it. Oh, and do not forget the proximity of Seoul.

I think this is just a war of words, and it seems the ROK is not very worried about it. However, as a continuation of the Korean War is unlikely (not impossible), it does not mean Kim is in the position of being cooperative. So, what is proposed to move this forward?

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Chosun Ilbo: North Korean fighters seen near the DMZ

Published
by
Jack
on March 30, 2008
in Diplomacy, News, North Korea and United States
. 2 Comments

MIG-21 FishbedAccording to the Chosun Ilbo:

North Korean Air Force fighters have approached skies near the demilitarized zone and the Northern Limit Line, the de facto border in the West Sea, on some 10 occasions since Feb. 25, when the new conservative South Korean government was inaugurated. On each occasion, South Korean fighters immediately scrambled to intercept them.

When I read this, I did not know how often the DPRK would send fighters and other types of forces along the DMZ when things do not go Kim’s way. Earlier, the North Koreans tested some missiles, and now this. Reading further into this article

Last Friday, the North fired short-range missiles into the West Sea while fighters also flew close to the South as many as five times, creating simultaneous tension in the sea and the skies, a South Korean Defense Ministry official said. And on the ground, even after a regular mobile exercise was finished, the elite Mechanized Corps stationed in Hwanghae Province was recently spotted moving south — an unprecedented military move.

Emphasis mine. I have not studied any history of fighters or mechanized corps going close to the DMZ, but since the DMZ has always been a flash point, I can only guess it has to have happened in the long tensions. However, to say “an unprecedented military move” may mean something, but I cannot verify what constitutes “an unprecedented military move”. So the significance of these events seem iffy to me. It goes on:

The South Korean Defense Ministry is closely monitoring the moves, believing the North is intentionally creating tensions in the sea, skies and on the ground. Sources in the South Korean government and military on Sunday said North Korean fighters including MIG-21s took off from North Korean air bases such as Tokchon Air Base in South Pyongan Province, crossed the “Tactical Action Line” set by South Korea, to fly near the DMZ and the NLL on about 10 occasions since the Lee Myun-bak administration’s launch. The TAL is an imaginary line set by the South 20 to 30 km north of the DMZ and the NLL, based on the assumption that North Korean fighter planes can reach skies over the Seoul Metropolitan area just three to five minutes after take-off. Once they come close to the TAL, that is the signal for South Korean fighters to take off from Suwon Air Base and elsewhere.

So, it seems like this may be par for the course? I am sure the ROK is well-prepared for stuff like this, and may explain why the jets flew back north when confronted. I am not too sure:

On the most recent occasions, the North Korean fighters, once confronted, reportedly turned back north. Since 2005, North Korean fighters have several times flown close to the border, but never with such frequency.

Again, I am not very sure about the significance of this, and I would like to ask readers what it may mean. I am going to guess it may not mean a lot unless the North does decide to fly over the MDL, but that will cause serious problems because the equipment on the North side is so outdated. That just makes me wonder. It does seem on the other hand, the South is not taking this too seriously:

Meanwhile, in a telephone message to the South last Saturday, North Korea two-star general Kim Young-chol, the chief delegate to inter-Korean general-grade talks, demanded South Korea apologize for and withdraw what it says was a threat of a “preemptive strike” made by Gen. Kim Tae-young, the designated chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Elaborating on a plan to counter a nuclear attack from the North in his confirmation hearing, Kim said the South would identify and hit enemy locations suspected of storing nuclear weapons. The Defense Ministry denies Kim was talking of a preemptive strike. It is to decide within the next few days whether to send a reply to the North.

I am going to guess it is moire ruffling of the feathers on Kim’s part, because in my mind, if he really wanted, he could have ordered the planes to cross the DMZ which would be suicide. Time will tell.

Also see North Korean Monitor, ROK Drop and DPRK Studies

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Yonhap: DPRK tests fires missiles

Published
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Jack
on March 27, 2008
in News and North Korea
. 2 Comments

What a coincidence! When Kim threw his temper tantrum and threw the diplomats out of the Kaesong Complex, Yonhap reports North Korea test fired some missiles:

The test, believed to be of Russian Styx missiles, comes one day after the communist nation threw out all South Korean government officials from the inter-Korean industrial complex in the North in apparent disgruntlement over the Lee Myung-bak government’s hard-line North Korea policy.

To get a better understanding of this, see DPRK Studies post on the expulsion of the folks from Kaesong and the possible fractures within Kim’s cabinet. This is no surprise, and this happened before when Kim got mad, so this is ruffling the feathers time. Does this mean the six-party talks are off the table? Time will only tell on this one, but it seems to me Kim is running back in his cave and pressing some buttons to cause some alarm.

They said the North was believed to have fired at least four missiles, but that the type could not be immediately confirmed. A Styx missile is believed to have an average range of 46 kilometers.

A North Korean Navy vessel was detected earlier this week in the West Sea in what South Korean officials believed to be part of preparations for a missile launch.

Emphasis mine. Now what in the world is a Styx missile? This site seems to shed some light on what it is (this may be know to other watchers, but this is for reference later):

North Korea routinely conducts missiles tests between March and November, yet it is difficult to dismiss the notion that the recent North Korean tests were devoid of any emergent political and military content. The February 24 test occurred on the evening before the inauguration of South Korean president Roh Moo-hyun; the March 10 test happened a little over a week after North Korean jets threatened a U.S. RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft; and the April 1 test came in the immediate aftermath of Japan’s launching of its first spy satellites. All occurred in the larger context of Washington’s nuclear deadlock with Pyongyang.[4] Given the presence of U.S. Navy ships in the Sea of Japan, North Korea conceivably may also have sought to remind the United States that the North Korean People’s Navy possesses threatening missiles.[5]

Emphasis mine. And according to another report (CNN), the test firing was routine and is nothing to worry about:

South Korea’s presidential office dismissed reports of the missile launches as part of “ordinary military training” by the communist state.

“The government regards North Korea’s missile firing as merely a part of its ordinary military training,” presidential spokesman Lee Dong-kwan told Yonhap.

But in all, it is very interesting this happened once things did not go Kim’s way. Also see ROK Drop.

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North Korea is low on cash, so celebrations for the leaders are twice a year

Published
by
Jack
on March 23, 2008
in Cult Of Personality, Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, News and North Korea
. 1 Comment

According to AFP:

SEOUL (AFP) — Cash-strapped North Korea has cut down on its main festivities to mark founding leader Kim Il-Sung’s birthday to help save money in the impoverished Communist country, news reports said Sunday.

Choson Sinbo, a pro-Pyongyang newspaper for ethnic Koreans in Japan, reported on its online edition that North Korea had turned its annual “April Spring Friendship Art Festival” into an biennial event instead.

The festival, usually around Kim’s birthday of April 15, has served as Pyongyang’s most important fete to strengthen a personality cult around Kim’s family in North Korea.

Kim’s birthday is still the biggest holiday in North Korea despite his death in 1994. His son Kim Jong-Il has since ruled the country with a similarly iron-fisted approach.

The celebration, which began in 1982 to celebrate Kim’s 70th birthday, usually invites foreign artists — with Pyongyang footing the bill for travel expenses and accommodation.

But Seoul’s Yonhap news agency, citing an unnamed North Korean defector who formerly worked for the foreign and cultural sectors, said worsening economic hardships had led Pyongyang to curtail the usually lavish celebration and most likely mean no international performers this year.

Emphasis mine. For North Korea to cut down on these types of events, it must be in dire straits. Also, does this save money on the gifts the leaders show love for the people? I think so. It does not matter. This country is falling apart, and there is little that can be done about it.

In the meantime, the #2 man is making some deals with some countries in Africa, and maybe they can send them some extra cash.

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…and they wait for a declaration

Published
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Jack
on March 19, 2008
in News and North Korea
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Yawn… the Associated Press reports the international community is still waiting for a full declaration. It is a stalemate because Kim wants more goodies and the full declaration was already sent last November. See, I do not know what the problem is. Go ahead, give Kim whatever he wants. It was just lost in the mail, so it is not his problem.

…and the waiting game continues, and this was interesting:

The communist nation must act soon if international talks are to move ahead on efforts to rid the North of nuclear weapons by year’s end, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill told reporters.

Um, was strong wording to get the full declaration come and gone several times already? Kim knows it is a little game and nothing will happen if he does not deliver. Something has to happen on his end to get his ass in gear. Let’s hope something does happen because mere words will not stop anything.

This is a very slow news day, and this is non-news.

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Another slow news day in North Korea, and Kim Jong Il is still an asshat

Published
by
Jack
on March 16, 2008
in News, North Korea and Other Topics
. 0 Comments

kim.jpg

Update: See Joshua’s post.

Not a whole lot is going on in the lonely world of North Korea, the six-party talks, Japan’s anger and the usual yawn-inducing topics that never seem to grab traction. Nothing much has changed in the last 60+ years, and I doubt nothing will happen anytime soon especially with the change of guard in different administrations. Kim has seen a lot of change of guard along with his dear old dad. Therefore, it seems Kim will take every chance he can to drag his feet. This is all par for the course, and I am not talking golf at Pyongyang or elsewhere be it nine holes, eighteen holes or three holes at his pleasure pad.

The issue at this stage of the game seem to be pretty bad. Kim Jong Il is no stranger to bad times, but as long as he has his booze, imported food and gadgets all is OK. However, how long can he have these goodies be delivered when his country around him is crumbling and his people under his so-called “loving care” look elsewhere to survive despite the real chances of execution, prison camps, torture and family members finding the same fate? In time, it may be a very good possibility implosion can come within as long as Kim does not deliver. According to this story and Joshua’s recent link to the WaPo, it may be tough times indeed if even his closest ally wants little to do with him. There are so many times Kim Jong Il can present the bird and biting the hand that feeds before he loses all his friends. This has been more apparent over the last decade (if not longer), and despite the many near misses to total implosion, others have come to the rescue to avoid a major shift in the entire chessboard of politics and humanitarian disaster.

Continue reading ‘Another slow news day in North Korea, and Kim Jong Il is still an asshat’

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Lee gets sworn in and NY Philharmonic news (Update)

Published
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Jack
on February 25, 2008
in News and North Korea
. 0 Comments

Lee has been sworn into office, and now we shall see how this administration goes vs. the Roh. The Associated Press has more:

[...]

The conservative, pro-U.S. Lee, nicknamed “The Bulldozer” for the can-do image he honed as a construction company CEO and later as mayor of Seoul, was sworn into office in a colorful outdoor ceremony at the National Assembly in the presence of tens of thousands of onlookers.

“Economic revival is our most urgent task,” Lee said in his inauguration speech.

Lee also vowed to boost ties with the United States and called for summits with North Korea as needed, according to an advance copy of the speech.

Lee’s presidency ends a decade of liberal rule that critics say hindered economic growth, was too soft on communist North Korea and fomented tension with traditional close ally Washington.

[...]

Not that he is free from controversy, however, in the coming days we shall all see how his presidency works.

Update: A reporter was in Pyongyang for CNN that flew with the The New York Philharmonic. A lot of things were said that I have never heard visitors say before without some serious problems. I am wondering how in the world the reporter was allowed to say all the things she said without minders in tow?

Original post:The New York Philharmonic arrived in the DPRK Monday to start setting up a show for the elites of Pyongyang. North Korea claims it will be played on central television, but as we all know a large majority of North Koreans do not have a television so the point may be moot anyway. According to CNN, the reason North Korea allowed the The New York Philharmonic in is because of the need for hard currency which is making human rights advocates angry along with the seven Koreans in the orchestra. According to this video, one Korean player was reluctant to go until Christopher Hill paid a visit. It seemed to ease her mind at least because they asked for guaranteed safety inside the secret state.

North Korea made unprecedented accommodations for the orchestra, allowing a delegation of nearly 300 people, including musicians, staff and journalists to fly into Pyongyang on a chartered plane for 48 hours.

So they are getting the star treatment. Furthermore:

The Philharmonic’s concert Tuesday will be broadcast live on North Korea’s state-run TV and radio, unheard of in the impoverished country, where events are carefully choreographed to bolster the personality cult of leader Kim Jong Il.

No kidding. According to the plans of what will be played, it includes the Star Spangled Banner. That is also unheard of in a state where only songs praising Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung are played. With the tensions as high as they are (and has been for the last 55+ years), it was very surprising to me. However, with the North as cash starved as it is (and admitted at least according to the director), it also shows the North going to great lengths to feed its starving coffers. That is what is concerning human rights advocates because the money is surely not going to the hands of those who need it:

“I’ve had a lot of moral reservations based on wondering what a concert for the elite is going to do to help the people starving in the street,” said Irene Breslau, 58, a violist.

Also, what is interesting and also unheard of:

The concert will feature Antonin Dvorak’s Symphony No. 9 and “An American in Paris” by George Gershwin. Among the encores planned is the Korean folk song “Arirang,” beloved in both the North and South.

The performance will begin with the orchestra playing the national anthems of both countries and the U.S. and North Korean flags will stand together on stage, said the Philharmonic’s president and executive director, Zarin Mehta.

Ahead of their arrival, North Korea was even tearing down the anti-U.S. posters that line the streets of Pyongyang, Mehta said Sunday. He cited a diplomat based there who briefed the orchestra before its departure from Beijing, the last stop on a tour of the greater China region.

Such posters typically portray iron-faced North Korean soldiers with rifles poised to strike cowering Americans or crushing Washington’s Capitol dome.

Ahh yes, this picture was taken down? Everybody knows this poster:

Also, it is unclear if Kim Jong Il will be at the event:

It was not known whether North Korean leader Kim would attend the concert, and Philharmonic spokesman Eric Latzky said the group had not directly extended an invitation to him.

I have my doubts, but anything is possible. How all this will go remains to be seen, but in all, it will not change anything in North Korea. Maybe only a few more dollars.

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CNN: Fidel Castro resigns according to state newspaper

Published
by
Jack
on February 19, 2008
in News and Other Regimes
. 5 Comments

fidel.jpgBreaking news on CNN right now; Fidel Castro resigns:

(CNN) — Fidel Castro announced his resignation as president of Cuba and commander-in-chief of Cuba’s military on Tuesday, according to a letter published in the state-run newspaper, Granma.

I did not see anything on the digital Granma, but it seems it was reported on CNN as official and in the printed paper.

Castro, 81, temporarily handed power to his younger brother Raul Castro in July 2006 after undergoing intestinal surgery. He hasn’t been seen in public since his surgery, but he has appeared in numerous videos and photos in state media.

In December 2007, a Cuban television news anchor read a letter reportedly written by Fidel Castro promising he would not “cling to office” or be an