The deadline passes and now we see what happens next. Reuters reports:
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North Korea appears almost certain to miss a deadline in a nuclear deal, a development that is unlikely to scuttle the disarmament-for-aid pact it reached with regional powers but could hamper its implementation.
Pyongyang has met one part of the deal by starting to take apart its Soviet-era nuclear facility that produces arms-grade plutonium, but is unlikely to meet its obligation to fully account for its nuclear activities by the end of the year.
If the DPRK makes the deadline, you are free to sell me some oceanfront property in Kansas. It is the 30th already, and looks like nothing is going to be done because North Korea is balking at the details of the February deal. Kim Jong Il wants more aid in return for an almost likely incomplete detailing of its past and current programs including HEU. However, they have almost been certainly been caught otherwise, but apologists will say it could come from somewhere else. With anything dealing with North Korea, nothing is ever certain, and neither will this even if they do declare. How is the outside world to know 100%. They cannot, unless I am missing something.
If it lives up to the deal it reached with China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States, the destitute state would receive 1 million tonnes of heavy fuel oil or equivalent aid and the U.S. would take it off its terrorism black list.
Now that North Korea will not make the deadline, how are the details of the carrot going to be? Time will tell on that one, but I am going to guess it is going to be the status quo.
The paranoid state also probably loathes the prospect of being forthcoming about one of its biggest secrets, its nuclear weapons program, analysts said.
No kidding, yet will still want what they demand. Will the parties involved deliver despite the bad behavior?
North Korea may delay the process, but analysts said it must come up with some sort of declaration.
I have to agree with this too, because Kim Jong Il is the type to do stuff when he is damn good and ready. His hallmark is to ruffle his feathers, balk and play games. It’s been that way for decades. This is just more of the same stuff, and if something different comes along, color me very surprised.
One Free Korea and ROK Drop has more.
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Beijing will soon allow more than 40 North Korean refugees sheltering at foreign missions in China to leave for South Korea and the United States, a report said Sunday.
China usually forcibly repatriates North Korean refugees, whom it regards as economic migrants, even though they often face harsh punishment on their return home.
South Korea’s Yonhap news agency, quoting unnamed sources in Beijing, said the Chinese government had decided to allow them to leave to prevent the issue overshadowing the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
Ah, what a opportunistic time to all of a sudden care for North Koreans looking for freedom. As the article said, China regularly deports North Koreans and right back into the lion’s den. This is a good step forward, and will most likely save 40 lives. This is good news. The bad news is, will this last? Most likely not. I have to see this as a ploy of “See! We care for North Koreans. Do not boycott the Olympics now!” However, I have to also say even if China were to send the 40 North Koreans back, it would have not made much of a difference anyway, because most people will not even know or care about the defectors. There are games to watch.
China has been in talks over the fate of 20 North Korean defectors sheltering in the South Korean embassy compound and 23 others under the protection of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in Beijing, according to Yonhap.
[...]
Despite its rare permission for the North Koreans to seek asylum, Beijing plans to beef up its crackdown on illegal North Koreans ahead of the Olympics, Yonhap said.
Hah, so it is business as usual. Nothing to see here folks, move along.
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This should come as no surprise whatsoever. According to the Chosun Ilbo:
North Korea claims that nuclear fuel and a cooling tower are not subject to disablement of nuclear facilities under a six-nation agreement signed in February, it emerged Saturday. According to diplomatic sources in Washington, a U.S. delegation of nuclear experts has visited North Korea several times, demanding the North dispose of unused nuclear fuel and destroy the nuclear cooling tower during the disablement stage.
(Emphasis and link mine) I had a feeling something would come along such as this. North Korea is always on this cat and mouse game, and on top of not coming clean with the uranium enrichment found on the tubes, now this. I am wondering how Washington and the other six-party members are going to react on this. At this stage of the game, it is too early to say, but one thing is crystal clear: The deadline is ticking down to the wire, and North Korea balks at the last second despite all the promises made before. When are people going to learn that Kim Jong Il cannot be trusted?
Continue reading ‘Kim Jong Il does not want to give up nuclear fuel and other news’
Sphere: Related ContentI ran into a pretty odd story on Google News today:
A newly declassified document shows that J. Edgar Hoover, the longtime director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, had a plan to suspend habeas corpus and imprison some 12,000 Americans he suspected of disloyalty.
(I removed links, added emphasis and linked to the declassified document) We do remember the McCarthy era, and while that is a very touchy subject, I will try to avoid the partisan divide and the possible conspiracy theories linked to this story. I do have my opinions on the McCarthy era, that is not really the focus of this posting. With explosive topics such as this, I will let the reader make his or her own mind up as to the implications of such moves past and present, because from that, we can decide for ourselves how the future will be and I will leave it a that.
The purpose of this article is to show the historical documents for you folk to sift through. There are many declassified documents in the PDF linked, so you will have more than enough time to read it and see the whole thing for yourself. It will take me a while to read it all, and the letter in question is found on pages 18-20:
Continue reading ‘J. Edgar Hoover and mass jailings?’
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I saw this press conference on C-Span earlier today and found it pretty interesting. Have a watch (about 45 mins.), and decide for yourself what is between the lines:
Specific to North Korea (Full transcript here):
In East Asia, we have made progress this year toward our goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. After agreeing to implement the September 2005 joint statement, North Korea shut down and is now disabling its Yongbyon facilities. We expect North Korea to honor the pledge it made in the six-party talks, to make a complete and accurate declaration of all its nuclear programs. Of course, other challenges and flashpoints of conflict remain in East Asia and we will monitor those closely. In the Taiwan Strait, for example, the United States remains committed to peace and security. We oppose any threat to use force and any unilateral move by either side to change the status quo. We have a One China policy and we do not support independence for Taiwan.
Which goes along with the previous post I made and is making a buzz around the Internet and blogs. The Taiwan issue is interesting and I want to study that further. If other readers have more information and/or background on this, I would be interested. It goes a little further on the issue:
As we have stated in recent months, we think that Taiwan’s referendum to apply to the United Nations under the name “Taiwan” is a provocative policy. It unnecessarily raises tensions in the Taiwan Strait and it promises no real benefits for the people of Taiwan on the international stage. That is why we oppose this referendum.
I guess that makes some sense, but I am not too sure about the broader picture or the history of this issue. Anyway, going back to the nuclear issue, six-party talks and North Korea, with a lot of tight-lipness, a reporter asks about the uranium found in centrifuges:
QUESTION: I’m wondering if you can tell us what you think the significance is of the discovery of enriched uranium on these — the samples of aluminum tubes from the North Koreans. Will this complicate the six-party process and will it — does it raise any flags ahead of the declaration which they are supposed to present in about 10 days?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, I’m not going to comment on specific reports or certainly on intelligence matters, but we have been very clear that we expect a declaration from North Korea that is complete and that is accurate. As you know, we have long been concerned about highly enriched uranium as an alternative route in North Korea and so we expect there to be a declaration that is complete and accurate. I also want to note that there is a considerable diplomatic effort underway not just by the United States, but by other members of the six-party talks to make certain that we can complete this second phase, both with the disablement, which I should underscore is going very well, and with the declaration. I sincerely hope that we’ll — it’ll be by the end of the year. But the key here is to get the process right and we’re going to stay at this until we get it right.
There was some hesitation and seemed open ended when making this statement. That was just my take on it, but like anything North Korea, it is still up in the air on what kind of card North Korea will play next. The ball is clearly in their court right now, and what they will say is unclear at the moment. As stated before, I kind of doubt North Korea will admit any uranium enrichment program. How others including the United States will react to such a thing (if it happens) is another thing altogether. If there is evidence of such activity, how will it affect the talks? That is something I am really interested in seeing taking place. However, Condi seems very mum about any details as expected.
And another question about Iran and North Korea:
QUESTION: Do you — can I ask you a follow-up? Do you see opportunities to visit countries like North Korea and Iran and Syria before the end of your term if they were to significantly improve their (inaudible)?
SECRETARY RICE: Look, we don’t have permanent enemies; the United States doesn’t. What we have is a policy that is open to ending conflict and confrontation with any country that is willing to meet us on those terms. And we’ve given very clear paths with our allies. It’s not a unilateral U.S. policy, but with our allies, we’ve given very clear paths and very clear pathways for improving relations with all of those countries. If, in fact, we continue on a path of completing the next stages on North Korean denuclearization, if the denuclearization continues, then the agreement that we signed in September 2005 and the February 19th agreement of last year is very clear on a pathway toward better political relations between the United States and North Korea. And there can be many different opportunities within that context of improved relations.
And on Iran, I continue to say that if Iran will just do the one thing that is required of it by the Security Council resolutions that have been passed, and that is suspend its enrichment and reprocessing activities, then I’m prepared to meet my counterpart anyplace and anytime and anywhere and we can talk about anything. So let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s see if countries are prepared to take that path. But the United States doesn’t have permanent enemies. We’re too great a country for that.
So there is the carrot. Will North Korea take it? Time will tell on that one.
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As expected, North Korea is dragging its feet on disclosing any current and past nuclear activities despite the “trust me” story they would do so by the end of this year. To add insult to injury, reports indicate scientists found traces of uranium were found. According to the Washington Post:
U.S. scientists have discovered traces of enriched uranium on smelted aluminum tubing provided by North Korea, apparently contradicting Pyongyang’s denial that it had a clandestine nuclear program, according to U.S. and diplomatic sources.
(Emphasis mine) As always, North Korea denies a lot of things especially its nuclear programs. This case should be no different nor surprising. In any case, if the reports are true North Korea has been enriching uranium, it does complicate the process. Thus, the denials and accusations are stepped up along with added snags in the already sticky negotiations process. In my opinion, North Korea will not open up, will most likely only cherry pick what they want to disclose, and since nobody knows what is really going on inside North Korea, all outsiders can do is (again) go on a “trust me” basis. This gives Kim a lot of leeway, and everybody knows it. So if uranium has been found, how does this change the field in the negotiations process? The article gives us a little more detail:
Continue reading ‘North Korea, uranium, denials and dragging feet: The missing Team America scene’
Sphere: Related ContentSometimes, I do not understand the mindset of the UN, since it does not really do anything other than write angry letters. In the latest resolution, they seem to have mounting concerns over human rights abuses in North Korea (which is as obvious as the sun comes up). The question is, what do they plan to do about it? Looks like a lot of nothing (Associated Press article):
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The U.N. General Assembly adopted a resolution Tuesday expressing “very serious concern” at reports of widespread human rights violations in North Korea, including torture and public executions.
The resolution is not legally binding but carries moral weight and reflects the majority view of world opinion.
(Emphasis mine) Um, it is not legally binding, which means a whole lot of nothing. Sure, UN members can be angry and discuss how crappy the human rights record is in North Korea, but it still does not stop the executions, starvation, lack of free speech and movement. Therefore, what good does a UN resolution do for the folks living behind the barbed wire? They will not see the concern, nor will they see any result from it. That kind of bothers me.
Continue reading ‘Opinion - UN Concerned about human rights abuses: North Korea scoffs’
Sphere: Related ContentFor those that do not know, Lee ha won the ROK elections by a wide margin:
South Korea’s presidential election was won by runaway favourite Lee Myung-bak by a landslide on Wednesday.
The former Hyundai chief executive received 50.3 per cent of the vote, according to exit polls. His nearest rival, liberal Chung Dong-young, had 26 per cent.
That’s a pretty commanding lead.
Conservative Mr Lee, a former Seoul mayor who was 66 on election day, has led the race for months.
His victory ends a decade of liberal rule in the South, during which the country embarked on unprecedented reconciliation with rival North Korea that has restored trade and travel across the heavily armed frontier dividing the peninsula.
Mr Lee has promised to take a more critical view of Seoul’s engagement with rival North Korea and seek closer US ties.
Now this is where it can get sticky. Once the U.S. elections are over (and I am sure a Democrat is going to win the next one), how is the six-party talks and the engagement policies going to work? I do not know, but the idea and tactics may change.
Just days before the vote, the parliament voted to authorise an independent counsel investigation into Mr Lee in a stock manipulation case where prosecutors had already cleared him of wrongdoing. The counsel is to complete the probe before his inauguration in February, and Mr Lee has said he would not accept the presidency if found at fault.
I heard a little about this, but do not know all the details about any past shady deals. Does anybody know the details of this?
“I want to thank the people who have defended me from numerous negative campaigns,” he said after voting in Seoul.
This is politics, and there is no escaping negative campaigns.
Unlike previous elections dominated by issues like security policy with rival North Korea or relations with the US, this year voters were focused on economic matters due to concern over high property prices, soaring unemployment and a widening gap between rich and poor.
Well, let’s hope things go better this time around.
Nicknamed “The Bulldozer” for his thrusting business acumen, Mr Lee’s support has been bolstered by unrest over the five-year term of liberal President Roh Moo-hyun, who was constitutionally barred from seeking re-election.
Another thing I did not know. Was Roh’s tenure that bad? Looks like it. I am going to have to read up and see what he did to get barred from re-election. Was this because something he did wrong, or does the ROK have term limits and Roh reached it?
In 2002, Mr Roh was elected after pledging not to be in thrall to the US while also continuing the rapprochement with the North fostered by his predecessor and fellow liberal Kim Dae-jung, who won a Nobel Peace Prize for his “sunshine” policy of engagement with Pyongyang.
That’s a serious sore spot for those watching Pyongyang to say the least. Whatever the case, I am very interested to see how new elected officials play the rest of this saga out. North Korea is still around after many elections in the ROK, US and elsewhere. Will this election finally turn the tide against Kim? We shall see.
More information on One Free Korea and ROK Drop
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Before I begin the next blog post, let me say “welcome back”. I finally got some space for this thing, and it is good until sometime in July, so that means this site should be around a little while longer. As for the frequency of the posts, that may be another issue altogether, because the personal problems are still there. I do not know how it is going to work out, so I am in the dark as much as anybody else.
Also, the forums are there in case any readers would like to discuss things regarding North Korea, current news, politics, off topic threads and other things. None of the users that post here will be tied to the forums, so users will have to register before comments and/or threads can be made. I hope you will take the time to register, tell your friends and perhaps some interesting discussions can take place at the DPRK Forum Forums. There is nothing on there right now, and since I am way behind on the postings of this blog, I will have little time to post stuff on there, but I may make some posts as far as open threads and questions are concerned, will disable comments for that posting, and direct others to the topic at hand on the forums in the most likely feeble attempt to get others to sign up there and start the discussions. I do not know how that will work yet.
Now to the news.
A lot has been going on in the news, and one of them is the letter to the Dear Leader. From the New York Times:
WASHINGTON — Responding to a recent letter from President Bush, North Korea agreed on Friday to follow through on its pledge to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, provided the United States reciprocates by normalizing relations between the countries.
President Bush said Friday that his initial letter, which was delivered by Assistant Secretary of State Christopher R. Hill to the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, on Dec. 5, achieved its purpose.
“I got his attention with a letter and he can get my attention by fully disclosing his programs, including any plutonium he may have processed and converted some of that into whatever he’s used it for. We just need to know,” Mr. Bush told reporters in the Rose Garden after a cabinet meeting. “As well, he can get our attention by fully disclosing his proliferation activities.”
Emphasis mine. That’s as obvious as the sun rises, but what is not obvious is to what extent Kim will disclose his programs. In my mind, there is really no failsafe way to fully know if everything has been disclosed, and that kind of bothers me. Perhaps North Korea will do it, but if we look to the past, it has not happened before, and while promises were made over and over again, something happens and some ace is up the sleeve. My question is, what will the ace be if any?
Continue reading ‘A letter to the Dear Leader and other news’
Sphere: Related ContentThere is a lot of Korea news to cover today, and one of those is the presidential race for South Korea. This is a race to watch closely, and I will post the changes as they take place. Current numbers:
In a sign of how voter sentiment is so strongly tilted away from Mr. Roh’s ruling party, the Lee Hoi-chang became the second-place contender in opinion polls after saying three weeks ago that he would join the race. Two surveys late last week put support for Lee Myung-bak at just over 40%, for Lee Hoi-chang at 20% and for Chung Dong-young, the ruling party candidate, at 14%.
Also, I did not know this:
The registration process also provided legal cover for frontrunner Lee Myung-bak, a former businessman and Seoul mayor who has repeatedly been accused of being involved in fraudulent activities. Under South Korean law, presidents and candidates for the office can’t be accused of a crime.
Last week, prosecutors questioned one of Mr. Lee’s former associates who claims the candidate was directly connected to a company that failed and defrauded investors. Prosecutors previously cleared Mr. Lee of any involvement in the failed company. But the new investigation could have damaged Mr. Lee if they leveled new charges before he was officially registered as a candidate.
“I hope prosecutors will find the truth through fair investigations as quickly as possible,” Mr. Lee said in a statement yesterday. He again asserted that he wasn’t involved in any illegal activity.
What is the story behind this, and if he were cleared of wrongdoing why is it an issue? Perhaps readers can help me understand this. In any case, it should be interesting to watch.
Yonhap has profiles for the candidates as well:
SEOUL, Nov. 25 (Yonhap) — The following are the profiles of South Korea’s three major candidates for the Dec. 19 presidential election. Each enjoys support ratings of more than 10 percent in opinion polls.
Lee Myung-bak — the opposition Grand National Party
Lee would become the first businessman turned head-of-state in South Korean history if he wins the presidential election in December.
The 66-year-old Lee, a former Seoul mayor and ex-CEO of Hyundai Engineering and Construction Co., commands a roughly 40 percent approval rating, the highest among presidential candidates. But some believe that Lee might falter in the run-up to the election because of suspicions that he was entangled in illegal stock manipulation involving an investment advisory company called BBK, now being investigated by prosecutors.
Before Lee enter politics, he worked for Hyundai’s construction company from 1965 to 1992, heading the company for more than half of the time he worked for it, and contributing to South Korea’s economic miracle after the 1950-53 Korean War.
Lee, who earned the nickname “bulldozer” for his aggressive style at Hyundai, won a seat in the National Assembly in 1992 and 1996. He was elected mayor of Seoul in 2002, with his four-year tenure ending in late June in 2006.
Lee Hoi-chang — independent
Conservative Lee, who is calling for a tough policy on North Korea, a pro-business environment and an end to the “leftist regime”, is running for president for the third straight time. He lost in 1997 and 2002 as a candidate of the conservative Grand National Party (GNP).
Lee, 72, an independent presidential candidate, enjoys about 20 percent support following the GNP’s standard-bearer Lee Myung-bak. Critics claim Lee Hoi-chang’s third presidential bid will divide the conservative vote.
Born to an elite family, Lee rose quickly to success in South Korea. He became a judge at the age of 25 and the youngest-ever Supreme Court judge at 45.
Lee entered party politics in 1996 as a lawmaker of the New Korea Party, the predecessor of the GNP, and was the GNP’s presidential candidate in 1997 and 2002. But he lost to underdog liberal candidate Roh Moo-hyun in 2002, in part because of allegations that his two sons dodged military service by fabricating data bout their health. After his defeat, Lee announced his departure from politics.
Chung Dong-young — the pro-government United New Democratic Party (UNDP)
The 54-year-old Chung, who supports rapprochement with North Korea, worked for local broadcasting company MBC as a reporter and an anchor until the early 1990s. His political career began in 1996 as spokesman for then opposition leader Kim Dae-jung, South Korea’s former president.
Chung served two terms as a lawmaker with the then-ruling New Millennium Democratic Party, and after losing in the party’s primary race ahead of the 2002 presidential election, threw his support to then-underdog contender Roh Moo-hyun.
Chung, named unification minister in 2005, transformed himself into an expert on inter-Korean relations. As unification minister, he met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang while the North was boycotting the multilateral talks on its nuclear weapons program.
But his ties with Roh soured as the president’s approval rating fell, and Chung led dozens of lawmakers to defect from the now-defunct Uri Party. He played a key role in creating the UNDP.
Well, the huge surprise of the century: Looks like the GNP Lee is going to win by a large margin:
Sphere: Related ContentA former Seoul mayor who bills himself as a pro-business conservative is expected to become South Korea’s next president by an overwhelming margin when voters go to the polls on Wednesday. As VOA’s Kurt Achin reports from Seoul, Lee Myung-bak is appealing directly to South Korea’s tradition of economic pragmatism.
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