According to the New York Times, Raul Castro seems to be loosening hard-line state controls:
HAVANA (AP) — Thousands of Cubans will be able to get title to state-owned homes under regulations published Friday, a step that could lay the groundwork for broader housing reform.
The measure was the first legal decree formally published since Raúl Castro succeeded his brother Fidel as president in February. It came a day after state television said the government would also do away with wage limits, allowing state employees to earn as much they can as an incentive to productivity.
[...]
Emphasis and link removal mine. This, in my opinion, is the beginning of the end of the hard-line communist rule in Cuba. It does not mean it is the end of the regime or the state, but It could happen, and could take years. However, like anything else, it is hard to say how things will go, and when/how things could happen. However, I am an optimist, and I have a lot of hopes for the future of Cuba. I look forward to true free elections, speech, religion and free enterprise. If one looks back in history, it appears to be well on that path. To be sure, there are many possibilities on the ultimate fate of Cuba be in the regime, the state or both, but we can look a little closer to some possibilities in the fantastically written paper, Projecting Pyongyang:
Between “China’s” Soft Landing and “Romania’s” Crash Landing scenarios, one might also insert another scenario that possesses some aspects of each. This hybrid scenario would closely approximate the experience of Cuba. Like Pyongyang, Havana experienced tremendous economic difficulties in the final days of the Soviet Union and in the aftermath of its patron’s collapse. Like North Korea, Cuba\ confronted an economic crisis of monumental proportions as subsidies and credit from Soviet bloc countries evaporated. The Castro regime adopted ad hoc reforms in piecemeal fashion starting in the early 1990s. But Cuba and North Korea do seem to have much in common, including the fact that both regimes are in a holding pattern of sorts, ruled by dynasties wherein the current dictator’s days are clearly numbered. In each case, there appear to be clear limits to the change possible in the immediate future. In early 2008, Fidel Castro, who had been plagued by medical problems, handed over the reigns of power formally to his younger brother and designated successor, Raul. Fidel, who turned 81 years old in August 2007, remains the dominant political figure in Cuba, although Raul is in charge of the day-to-day affairs of state. Once Fidel Castro and Kim Jong Il pass completely from the scenes of their respective countries, there is likely to be far greater scope for change.
This appears to be pretty accurate, and I am pretty surprised to see such reforms in the fact Fidel Castro is still alive (barely), but I also have to say the reforms are not sweeping (yet). Some of these reforms remind me of the old Soviet Union and Gorby’s reforms of perestroika and glasnost just before the dissolution in 1991. To be sure, Raul Castro has recently allowed people cell phones, DVD players and the like, when before, was heavily censored [Reuters]:
[...] Cuban President Raul Castro has introduced a series of reforms to raise food output and end what he called “excessive prohibitions” in communist Cuba.
Yes, that seems pretty bold, but I am still skeptical despite the laxing of the rules, but I cannot help but to smile. I really believe I am seeing history in the making:
The following are some of the reforms undertaken so far:
* Decentralized agriculture to allow private farmers more leeway to decide how to use their land, what crops to plant and what supplies to buy. Farmers granted leases to unused land.
* Lifted ban on Cubans buying consumer goods such as computers, DVD players, microwave ovens and other electronic appliances previously prohibited due to energy crisis.
This sounds familiar. It seems the crisis was from the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but according to this report on Boston.com, Hugo Chavez has been supplying Cuba with energy and at the same time using alternate forms of energy because of necessity. In the case of North Korea, The Soviet Union also was a good teat for the regime to suck on, and now that it is gone, is in huge shortage. While they have been getting some help, the stalemate in the six-party talks and other mis-adventures of Kim Jong Il is preventing them from getting the goodies he needs. Kim Jong Il does not have many friends, and the only one he has left is an arm’s length ally with the length getting longer and longer. So there seems to be some big difference in that respect.
* Cubans can now stay at hotels at beach resorts previously reserved for foreigners only, ending a “tourism apartheid” that was a source of resentment.
This is also interesting. I guess this is like normal North Koreans getting to stay at the hotels in Pyongyang. As for the limits on movement in Cuba is unclear to me, but from the link, it seems the restrictions on movement are not as strict as North Korea, but I am going to have research this more. What is clear, is regular Cuban citizens were not allowed in these places, and now they are, which is pretty significant to me. The downside is, a lot of Cubans do not have two centavos to rub together, so even if they are allowed, it may be out of reach in the immediate short term.
* As of April 14, Cubans will be allowed to freely buy and use cellular telephones, a service that only government officials and foreign companies had access to until now.
The freedom of communication. That is another step in right direction. I am also wondering of this includes allowance of receiving foreign broadcasts (this link appears to not be the case at the time of that writing which was early February, but on April 2, Raul has expended that allowance, but is not sweeping). All the same, to be allowed to have cell phones seems significant despite the economic divide of normal citizens and the elite.
* Reduced bureaucracy for filling medical prescriptions and began revamping family doctor program in response to public complaints it was understaffed.
Hm, I guess Michael Moore was wrong in regards to Cuba’s health care system being second to none. If it was so great, then there would have been no reason to reform, right? In any case, there is more [Associated Press]:
HAVANA (AP) — It’s not the stuff of Lenin or Marx, or even of Fidel Castro, but it’s hardly free-market capitalism, either. In fact, steps to encourage a Cuban spending spree may help the communist system and its new president survive.
In rapid-fire decrees over the past week, Raul Castro’s government has done away with some despised restrictions, lifting bans on electric appliances, microwaves and computers, inviting average citizens to enter long-forbidden resorts and declaring they can even legally have their own cell phones.
More could be on the way. Rumors are rampant the government could ease travel restrictions and tolerate free enterprise that would let more people start their own small businesses. And hopes that it will tweak the dual-currency system that puts foreign products out of reach for most Cubans have sparked a run on the peso.
“We’re going to get out and buy more and more,” said retiree Roberto Avila. “That’s the future in Cuba, and it is a strong future.”
Cuba is still far from a buyers’ paradise. Nearly everyone holds government jobs, earning an average of $19.50 a month, though many get dollars from tourism jobs or relatives abroad. It would take the average Cuban five months to earn enough to buy a low-end DVD player that an American could buy with five hours of minimum-wage work.
I have to agree it is not capitalism yet, and I also agree the haves and have-nots are already apparent in the face of these reforms because as I said before, most Cubans are very poor, and cannot afford a cell phone, microwave or a stay at a foreign hotel. Perhaps once the wage cap has been removed, maybe it will be in reach later, but immediately, it does not seem that way. On the other hand, as with all change in places like Cuba and other former communist states, change does not happen overnight. Going back to the NYT article:
By law, Cubans still are not permitted to sell their homes to anyone but the government, though they may swap housing with government approval — a process that can take years.
Two officials at Cuba’s National Housing Institute, who insisted on not being named because they were not authorized to speak to the foreign news media, said the new law was probably the first in a series of housing reforms.
I cannot see that law lasting forever, but I am curious to see what else comes down the pike as far as the housing reforms go. As for the wages:
[...] Ariel Terrero, a commentator on state television, said a resolution approved in February but not yet published would remove salary caps intended to promote social and economic equality, allowing state employees to earn as much they can.
That also appears to be good news, but change of that magnitude can take take time to change over, but in all, could close the gap of the have and have-nots. In what time frame is unclear, but again, I cannot see it happening overnight. Also, what path Raul Castro wants to go with reforms are unclear as well, and I will have to wait and see what else is in store.
In conclusion, Cuba is far from a democracy and has a long way to go. On the other hand, it does seem to me the cracks are very clear in the once hard-line state. I am very interested in seeing what else happens. As things are going the way they are now, I cannot help but to think that Raul in the quest for stability may actually be bringing the inevitable path to collapse. Not a hard landing mind you, but a hybrid as Projecting Pyongyang suggested.
The question posed today: Is Raul Castro Cuba’s Gorbachev?
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