Archive for the 'Politics' Category

Korean War peace treaty questions

Published
by
Jack
on October 13, 2007
in Diplomacy, Kim Jong Il, Korean War, North Korea, Politics, Speculation and The region
. 0 Comments

UnificationThere has been a buzz about a possible end to the Korean War, and reading about it, there are some unanswered questions from my end anyway, and perhaps some readers can help me understand some of the background or a better understanding on this.

This article got me thinking:

With the leaders’ agreement short of naming the participants in the talks, controversy remains over which country among the four pertinent countries — South and North Korea, the United States and China — should be excluded if the talks involve three nations. As signatories of the armistice, the U.S. and North Korea must be part of the talks. China, the other part of the three-way armistice, claims it will also be part of the talks, but the South Korean government has said Seoul will be part of the dialogue on any occasion, partly because the summit agreement was reached between the two Koreas.

What I am not getting from this article is why only three nations would be allowed to participate in a possible peace treaty. Since the United States, South Korea, China and North Korea were all part of the Korean War, why would only three nations be involved in the process when all four want (or appears to want) to be part of it? Kim Yong Nam was not talking:

Continue reading ‘Korean War peace treaty questions’

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Disengagement? Please say it is not so (updated)!

Published
by
Jack
on September 25, 2007
in News, North Korea, Nukes, Other Regimes, Politics and The region
. 1 Comment

This is absolutely no surprise, and Richardson is proven right once again:

North Korea’s chief nuclear envoy warns negotiations on ending his country’s nuclear programs are entering a crucial stage that could undo four years of diplomatic effort. As VOA’s Heda Bayron reports from our Asia News Center in Hong Kong, his comments come ahead of the resumption of the six-nation nuclear talks.
…
He told reporters at the Beijing airport that if North Korea, the United States, Japan, South Korea, China and Russia fail to agree on the details of the process, it could grind to a halt.

But Kim says if the United States and other countries meet their commitments, North Korea will do the same as well.

The article was not clear, and suspected it was about Syria, and sure enough that’s what it was:

Pyongyang’s top nuclear envoy denounced reports of North Korean nuclear assistance to Syria as baseless allegations “fabricated by lunatics” as he arrived Tuesday for talks with Chinese officials.

Following his arrival in Beijing, Kim Kye Gwan said the latest round of six-nation talks on ending the North’s nuclear programs could be a make-or-break occasion.

Ahhh, so that’s the rub. Kim is not going to give up his nukes, and now, North Korea talks about the U.S. helping Israel. When in the world has North Korea ever cared about Israel? Maybe they have, and as others have pointed out, North Korea has been chums with Syria for a while. Yes, there is no proof if North Korea is helping Syria with Nuclear material or technology, but it does not seem the point right now. At the least, it is a nice disengagement ploy, which is very Kim Jong Il.

So all of this work may be for naught, and that may mean Roh’s dreams of a summit may be in the drain, but that does not mean anything either. Remember the drinking game? It will most likely happen anyway as a feel good meeting and nothing will be done. Nice smiles will be exchanged, some words will be exchanged, but nothing about nukes or human rights will be discussed because Kim Jong Il does not like to be criticized. In the meantime, Kim plays his game that has worked all this time, and looks like it may work again.

Now what about that terror list removal? I would wait on that (Err, strike that), but North Korea wants its cake and have it all for themselves (Update: See DPRK Studies):

“We are dealing with those issues but there has been no decision made,” Hill said of removing North Korea from the blacklist.

“Obviously, this is something the DPRK very much wants but we’ve made it very clear it depends on further denuclearisation,” Hill said, referring to the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Again, very North Korea. They want to be asshats, disengage, cozy with Syria, hang with the holocaust denier (and why not? The DPRK are the experts on gulags that would make Hitler proud), and never hold the end of the deal. And what happened? Goodies were sent.

Ugh, I do not see this going anywhere.

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The DailyNK got me thinking: When will times get better?

Published
by
Jack
on September 17, 2007
in Defectors, Diplomacy, Economy, Humanitarian Topic, Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, Korean War, North Korea, Policy Elites, Politics, Speculation and The region
. 3 Comments

Chemical Factory(Fixed some grammar and typos) There are some powerful images coming from North Korea that go beyond the propaganda and the partisan rhetoric that goes with it. One in particular are photos from this article from the DailyNK. There are two pictures that caught my attention namely the women behind the barbed wire and the abandoned factory (Picured left).

The article asks an interesting question: “What Does that Girl Beyond The Barbed Wire Think?” I would like to go a little beyond that and ask the question, what does the average person living inside one of the most brutal regimes in the world think? That is a very big question, but that does lend the most important part of the process of brining eventual re-unification and freedom from dictatorship. However, I have noticed the political process has hindered the main focus and instead political points are at expense of the people behind that barbed wire. Something must of been lost along the way because of North Korea’s involvement in nuclear tests, missiles and possibly helping other regimes (such as Syria) carry out the most terrifying prospects of terrorists having access to weapons that can kill tens of thousands of people on impact. That is a very legitimate concern and North Korea should disarm and join the ranks of the international community. Unfortunately, that may be a pipe dream because the DPRK has not done it so far with all the disengagement.

Continue reading ‘The DailyNK got me thinking: When will times get better?’

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Li Bin a spy?

Published
by
Jack
on September 13, 2007
in Diplomacy, Kim Jong Il, News, North Korea, Nukes, Other Regimes, Politics and ROK
. 0 Comments

Here is an interesting story about a man named Li Bin who allegedly had close ties to Kim Jong Il and leaked information to South Korea:

Some reports said he was quartered at a foreign affairs think tank through this spring, others that he was at some point put into full-time police custody. Asked about his fate, the Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that Li no longer is associated with the ministry and its officials have no idea where he is. The government has made no announcement about the case.

What were the charges?

Former People’s Republic of China Ambassador to Seoul Li Bin (51) had been under investigation by the Chinese Public Security Department up until early this year. He was charged with providing the United States and South Korea information about North Korea-Chinese relations as well as North Korean internal affairs, including the current status of North Korea’s National Defense Committee Chairman Kim Jong Il.The Washington Post reported on September 13 that “Former Ambassador Li’s case is believed to be the most damaging state secrets case in China since 1994, when an army general was discovered to be a spy for Taiwan,” quoting an anonymous Chinese official. Former Ambassador Li was serving as deputy mayor of Weihai City in Shandong Province when he was summoned to Beijing last December for a Public Security Department investigation. This first surfaced early this year, but this is first time the specific allegations of his investigation have been disclosed.

The Washington Post also reported that Li was charged for regularly providing South Korea with information on Kim, and North Korea-China during a tour as China`s ambassador to Seoul from 2001 to 2005. Former Ambassador Li also seems to have been questioned on whether he has been handing over information on the six-party talks and the North Korean nuclear issue. The newspaper added that Li was alleged to have been providing related information to the United States as well, but it is not clear whether Li provided the information through Korean officials, or directly.

Sounds like pretty serious charges to me, but what I am interested in is what this man knows about the regime. What kind of information may have been leaked about the secret state? I am sure little people like me will probably never know, but it is still interesting to wonder.? Also, he was a Kim Il Sung University graduate? Interesting indeed.

Several people who knew Li during his years in Seoul expressed doubt that he would take money for information, saying he had a promising future in the Communist Party and thus had little motive to enter into an overt relationship with South Korean intelligence.

“His problem was that he loved drinking too much,” said another observer who knew Li in Seoul. “And when you drink too much, you make mistakes. You become a blabbermouth.”

I guess loose lips do sink ships.

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Where do the U.S. presidential candidates stand on North Korea?

Published
by
Jack
on September 9, 2007
in North Korea, Politics and United States
. 0 Comments

This page gives some interesting insight.

Of course, when picking a president, it hinges on a lot more than North Korea, but I rarely hear about how they would handle policy if something should come up, and if it is talked about, it is very brief (unless I missed something, in which case, you good folks can tell me in the comments). After all, North Korea is something to care about along with other policy abroad and at home. Oh also, I added Fred Thompson for good measure (No, I am not a Thompson hack, nor do I support any candidate just yet).

From what I am reading, the party line looks evident with a little variation for the exception of Ron Paul (Who by the way I am not a supporter or a critic), who says

Rep. Paul (R-TX) has voiced opposition to sanctions against North Korea. He believes the country could serve as a market for U.S. goods, saying, “Every market we close to our nation’s farmers is a market exploited by foreign farmers.”

Fair enough I suppose, but to exploit North Korea for U.S. goods would take some doing. Perhaps it can be done. Either case, that is an interesting variation.

One thing that is very clear is the ever changing landscape of the North Korean problem, the challenges faced by the next president will probably change. The current hope of Bush is to denuclearize North Korea and get a peace treaty before his term is up, and while that is all fair and great, that is a very tall order considering North Korea’s unstable nature on diplomacy, action and constant disengagement. Time will tell on the final outcome of the talks, summit meeting and other factors (such as if the talks with japan and North Korea warm a bit, but that seems pretty far away), but what I am seeing is tension all around because different countries in the region have different goals and concerns.

Yes, my hope is the regime will fizzle by the next election, but what my hopes are and what reality is are two very different things, and even those that support actions to make the regime buckle under pressure is a very risky thing indeed and causes a lot of controversy. Of course, South Korea and China are not too keen on that plan and hope for a soft landing (as said many times before), that does not seem very likely. Also, who is in office in South Korea could change things drastically. From what I am understanding, the GNP has a good chance of grabbing the helm, and whoever is chosen as president of the United States could change things as well. So it is all a very intricate dance, the dance goes on, but the style of dance can change with different dancers.

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The Path to Collapse: A closer look into Juche and the cult of personality Part 2

Published
by
Jack
on September 8, 2007
in Cult Of Personality, Economy, History, Juche Idea, Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, North Korea, Policy Elites, Politics and Speculation
. 0 Comments

Kim Il SungIn the last part of this series, we looked into the basics of the Juche idea, how it started, how factions were rooted out, the rise of Kimilsugism and how it differed from the Stalin regime. Much of the content was not mine, but mostly questions and my own interpretations of what was already published on the Internet. As I said before, I am just learning this stuff, and I may have to go back and revise some things as I learn it.

Today, we look further into the Juche Idea and how it works for the policy elites, normal North Korean people and presentation both inside and outside the reclusive country. From what I have read so far, they all seem different. So we shall dig in the Policy Elites paper a little more too.

As always: Please be aware this is an ongoing research project, and information contained in this post may have glaring factual or missing information that I may not be aware of. If anybody has any insight that will make me better understand it, please say so in the comments and I will love to take your views into consideration and learn something. That is the whole goal of this blog.

Continue reading ‘The Path to Collapse: A closer look into Juche and the cult of personality Part 2′

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Is Japan too “obsessed” with the abduction issue?

Published
by
Jack
on September 4, 2007
in Diplomacy, News, North Korea, Politics and The region
. 0 Comments

Six party talks. Hill looks like a rockstar.This article really bothered me, but it is not the fault of the writer. On the other hand, it is difficult to say what was said in private, but if it is true, leaves a very bad taste in my mouth:

Privately, the other participants in the Six Party Talks have expressed irritation at Japan’s obsession with the abduction issue. Now Japan fears that with the realistic prospect of a settlement, its greatest concern is being forgotten.

Yes, the negotiation process is very political, complex and maddening. What is clear is if the U.S. should remove North Korea from the list of sponsors of terror without resolving the abduction issues will certainly cause a rift in U.S.-Japanese relations. As Richardson pointed out in the comments in this posting:

The North loves driving wedges, be it between the U.S.-ROK, or U.S.-Japan.

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Are happy days ahead for Kim Jong Il? (Update 2)

Published
by
Jack
on September 3, 2007
in Diplomacy, News, North Korea, Nukes, Politics and United States
. 2 Comments

Kim Jong IlHe is getting removed from the terror list and the sanctions will be lifted (No official word from Washington yet). Therefore, Kim Jong Il has a lot to smile about:

The U.S. has agreed to take North Korea off its list of terrorism-sponsoring states and lift all economic sanctions, the communist country’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said, in its first public confirmation of the accord.

“The U.S. decided to take such political and economic measures for compensation as delisting the DPRK as a terrorism sponsor and lift all sanctions,” the unidentified spokesman said today in a report carried by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency. The DPRK stands for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the country’s official name.

Is it time to break out the bubbly, get a few ladies and have a party at one of his mansions while the people starve?

Continue reading ‘Are happy days ahead for Kim Jong Il? (Update 2)’

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North Korea to finally disable the nuke program?

Published
by
Jack
on September 2, 2007
in Diplomacy, North Korea, Nukes, Politics, ROK and United States
. 1 Comment

Thanks to Ally for the link (I talk North Korea endlessly with her, so the least I can do is thank her) According to this article, North Korea agrees to disable the reactor, but there are obvious problems. At first, the headline looks promising, but as I read the details, it is pretty much the same thing:

North Korea has agreed to declare and disable all its nuclear facilities by the end of this year, the chief U.S. negotiator said Sunday.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said two days of talks between the United States and North Korea in Geneva had been “very good and very substantive” and would help improve chances of a successful meeting later this month with Japan, Russia, South Korea and China in six-nation talks aimed at ending the North’s nuclear weapons program and improving relations between North Korea and other countries.

This implies to me it is not done yet, and from now until the end of the year is a long time. Also, to what extent we can trust the word of the regime is another thing. Will they declare and disable everything? There are conflicting reports, so time will tell with this one. As Pyongyang watchers know, the deals have been made, broken, restarted, and it plods along very slowly.

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The Path to Succession: The Path to Collapse Part 2

Published
by
Jack
on August 31, 2007
in Cult Of Personality, Defectors, Diplomacy, Economy, History, Humanitarian Topic, News, North Korea, Nukes, Other Regimes, Policy Elites, Politics, Speculation, The region and United States
. 0 Comments

Coat of arms

Sorry for the delay in the posting. I’ll remember not to make fixed dates on postings.

In the last part of the series, I looked at the “When North Korea Falls” article. I read some reactions to the article I did not read before (See comments in the last article of the series), and gave some extra insight into this complex and highly speculative series. In this part of the series, we look further into what else could happen in a former North Korea and the challenges it could face in the country and in the region. Only this time, I would like to make this more on a further tangent into the speculative. I find this stuff very interesting, and will probably go elsewhere too as I research this thing.

But first, I will look into the argument made in the comments:

That’s the money shot. The problem is that a lot of people would die in a short time (months, a couple of years) and governments would feel responsible. As it stands, probably even more have been dying over a much longer period of time. Six in one, half dozen in the other.

That presents a very good argument, and as said in the last part of the series, reunification is going to be a painful process no matter how it is done, and the way things are handled now are too Utopian. As always with this, I present the following disclaimer:

Please be aware this is an ongoing research project, and information contained in this post may have glaring factual or missing information that I may not be aware of. If anybody has any insight that will make me better understand it, please say so in the comments and I will love to take your views into consideration and learn something. That is the whole goal of this blog.

Continue reading ‘The Path to Succession: The Path to Collapse Part 2′

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