Archive for the 'ROK' Category

A hello to everybody again and North Korea’s new food aid

Published
by
Jack
on June 30, 2008
in DPRK, Food, K-Blogs, News, ROK and United States
. 2 Comments

I would like to give a big hello once again to everybody who read this blog. A few days ago, I decided to nuke the entire blog and read more while posting no more. I guess I was wrong. After some E-mails, conversations and the like, I was convinced to bring this blog back. Granted, this is going to make me look quite silly, and I do not expect to have any blog cred left. All the same, I do not expect any more traffic here like before, and will continue to post what I learn. I am not any smarter than I was a few days ago. With that said, I am going to post some news.

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The United States is sending the first batch of food aid into the DPRK, which followed the recent incomplete declaration given to officials in China and the destruction of the ageing Yongbyon cooling tower. According to the Associated Press, the food aid has nothing to do with these developments, but I think the timing is interesting. Whatever the case, this is the first shipment of 500,000 tons of food. The New York Times does not mention the non-association, but gives some details about the shipment:

The ship’s visit and the North Korean agreement to invite an additional 50 international relief experts from the World Food Program, as well as a consortium of U.S. relief agencies, followed recent progress in six-nation talks on ending the North’s nuclear weapons programs.

Emphasis mine. If the Associated Press says it has nothing to do with the talks, then why is the NYT implying it was? Perhaps the key word is “followed” and not necessarily tied to the recent developments (if one would label it as such). Furthermore, it appears Kim Jong Il is going to allow workers more access to more counties than previously allowed in the famine of the 1990’s, and while I do not have the places they are allowed to go, I will safely assume the regime will not let them near any of the concentration camps dotted around the country:

Until now, the WFP has had access to only 50 of the North’s 200 counties, distributing its aid through nurseries, schools, hospitals and orphanages. Under the new agreement, the agency will have access to 128 counties, including the remote and traditionally deprived northeast region and some counties never before accessible to humanitarian agencies.

“We will have a much greater degree of randomness to our monitoring visits,” said Tony Banbury, the WFP Asia regional director, in a telephone interview. “If the agreement is successfully implemented, as I expect it will be, we will indeed have the strongest assurances we have achieved that food aid is going to the intended beneficiaries,” Mr. Banbury said.

While I agree this is better than before, it still does not allow access to 72 counties. Why is that? I can venture a guess. I am sure you can as well. The regime is not opening up, which says to me they are still in a paranoid stance as they should be if in fact they are not allowing outsiders to see what is really going on in the DPRK. Also, another interesting tidbit is the type of food donated:

On Monday, it began unloading half of its cargo of 37,000 tons of U.S.-grown wheat, Risley said. The ship will discharge the other half of its cargo at Hungnam and Chongjin, ports on the North’s eastern coast.

Hmm, not rice. Interesting. Perhaps they took some advice from Marcus Noland. As you know, the elites like rice, and perhaps wheat will make things a little more unattractive. I do not have a rundown of all the foodstuffs sent or will be sent, but this part caught my eye.

As for the ROK, they offered corn, but North Korea did not want it. Maybe this is because of the more hawkish stance by Lee, but at this stage of the game, North Korea would be wise to get whatever it can because if I recall correctly, shipments of fertilizer were not sent. According to National Post, the fertilizer was indeed not sent. So that tells me crops should be in a very tough situation for a while. Therefore, it tells me until the next season starts, North Korea is going to rely almost entirely on aid. Not that it matters; it has been on the aid wagon for quite some time, only right now, it is spiralling directly into crisis mode. Just how serious it is remains unclear because of conflicting reports, but common sense tells me after the floods in August things must be very tough.

South Korea usually sends about 400,000 tonnes of rice and a hefty amount of fertilizer a year to North Korea but has not sent the aid this year as ties soured between the two when President Lee Myung-bak took office in February and promised a tough line toward Pyongyang.

With North Korea getting closer to the de-listing of state sponsors of terror, easing of sanctions and the like, one thing is very clear; the regime will not go away any time soon. what else happens remains to be seen.

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Yoo Sang-joon freed from Chinese jail

Published
by
Jack
on January 14, 2008
in Defectors, Humanitarian Topic, News, North Korea, ROK and Video
. 0 Comments

Yoo Sang-joonA bittersweet story of one of the most powerful underground railroad activists I have seen Yoo Sang-joon. ROK Drop has the documentary posted.

[...]

“Yoo Sang-joon is now safely in South Korea after spending the last four months in a prison located in northern China, according to Christian Solidarity Worldwide (CSW),” said Vu. “He is said to have endured extreme cold during his imprisonment and was believed he would die while being confined in China.

[...]

“I am grateful from the depths of my heart to CSW and CSW supporters for all the deep concern, prayer and advocacy on my behalf while I was in prison,” said Yoo, according to CSW.

Vu went on to say, “Yoo, a North Korean survivor, was arrested near the Chinese-Mongolian border while trying to rescue other North Koreans from danger in China. He had lost his wife and youngest son in the North Korean famine. He realized the same fate awaited him and his remaining son if they remained in the country, and decided to flee to China.

“But unable to travel together, his 10-year-old son, Chul Min, attempted to cross the Mongolian border by himself. Unfamiliar with the inhospitable terrain, he wandered 26 hours and – suffering from dehydration and weakened from the famine – died before crossing the border.

“Yoo himself was able to reach South Korea and is a citizen, but he continues to be haunted by the loss of his family. As a result, he has dedicated his life to helping North Korean refugees in China, especially children, at the risk of his own safety.”

[...]

“North Korea is one of the most repressive regimes in the world and is ranked by the watchdog Open Doors as the world’s worst persecutor of Christians. Citizens of the communist state are forced to adhere to a personality cult that revolves around worshipping current dictator Kim Jong Il and his deceased father, Kim Il Sung,” said Vu in her story.

“In the face of these grave consequences, Yoo’s punishment is considered light.”

“The fact that Yoo Sang-joon was released after only four months, in contrast to other activists who have served up to and surpassing four years, is surely a testament to your prayers, network and fervent advocacy,” said a CSW contact on the ground in Asia (location cannot be identified for security reason). “We thank you all so very much !”

No words can express the work of somebody like this who endured such unspeakable tragedies in his own life and risked his life to help others in search of freedom from the iron grip of Kim Jong Il. For me personally, it is so much easier to sit in my comfortable house in the United States and want freedom for North Koreans, when in reality would be much harder to act on it, unlike like this man and other people who risk everything to help others. So I tip my hat, and I wish him all the luck, happiness and health. Not only to him, but to others who help in this regard.

I do not know if he will continue to do anymore underground railroad work, but even if he does not, he is a testament to ultimate bravery. Also, I would like to take the time to thank others in the cause for helping defectors, getting the word out about the real state of North Korea, and at least making the effort to let the world know even if a blind eye is cast aside.

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Declare your nukes now… OK, OK, we can wait.

Published
by
Jack
on January 13, 2008
in Diplomacy, Economy, News, North Korea, Nukes, ROK and United States
. 0 Comments

I have been really engaged on the Beyond Belief series, but I think this blog needs something Korea related today. It has been a pretty slow news cycle, and while the DPRK balks, all the rest can do is wait to see what happens. However, it does not mean the negotiations are not going on, and right now, it seems despite the hard-line placed on the agreed framework, it was absolutely no surprise North Korea would not deliver, and it was also not a surprise despite the hard talking from the other sides of the table, they are now willing to wait. How long are they willing to wait? The Korea Times seems to have more:

The plan calls for North Korea to disable its key nuclear facilities no later than March and disclose details of its nuclear programs, according to the sources.

Seoul wants to draw up a timetable for the full dismantlement of the North’s nuclear programs and initiate negotiations on building a peace mechanism on the peninsula in the first half of the year, they said.

“We expect the disablement of North Korea’s nuclear plants including the removal of nuclear fuel rods to be completed by March,” a ministry official told reporters, asking not to be named. ``Pyongyang should provide a full list of its nuclear programs by that time.”

(Emphasis mine) Timetables are great and wonderful, but from what I see, where are the consequences if the DPRK does not hold its end of the deal? A sulk? That’s what it looks like to me. The U.S. wants one sooner, but I am sure all sides agree sooner is better. Whatever the case may be, it is in North Korea’s court, and Kim Jong Il is holding the ball.

U.S. chief nuclear envoy Christopher Hill urged the North to declare the list before the inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak government Feb. 25.

“There is no reason why we cannot finish the job in 2008,” he told reporters in Seoul after a meeting with President-elect Lee.

Nope, there was also no reason why the North could not give the list at the end of December, but it was not delivered, right? It is understandable removing of fuel rods is dangerous and takes time, but it does not mean a piece of paper cannot be delivered in the meantime. Of course, the North claims the declaration was given in November, but somehow got lost en route. I wish I could do that with my bills without consequence. Furthermore, the North is slowing down the process until it gets more goodies on top of it.

This part of the article does not make much sense:

Seoul has been trying to initiate talks over establishing a peace regime on the peninsula, replacing the current armistice signed by the United States, China and North Korea at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.

The war ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, leaving the two Koreas technically at war. South Korea wants to issue a joint declaration with parties to the truce for putting an end to the war, which it sees as a preliminary step to a permanent peace treaty.

However, the U.S. government is skeptical about a war-ending declaration before Pyongyang’s full denuclearization.

Seoul calls for a peace treaty in 2010. So does this imply the U.S. is willing to wait until 2010? I’ll ponder over this one for a while.

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What is the real story behind the supernotes (update)?

Published
by
Jack
on January 10, 2008
in Defectors, Economy, Humanitarian Topic, North Korea, Questions To Readers, ROK and United States
. 5 Comments

Update: One Free Korea has a much better commentary on this story and is well worth the read.
Supernote?

There have been questions and charges raised regarding the so-called supernotes that supposedly came out of North Korea. I do not know the validity of these charges because I am not a currency expert. However, there are two articles today that may raise doubts. Apparently, according to one article by AZCentral.com:

WASHINGTON - Two years ago, as he was ratcheting up a campaign to isolate and cripple North Korea’s dictatorship financially, President Bush accused the communist regime there of printing phony U.S. currency.

“When someone is counterfeiting our money, we want them to stop doing that. We are aggressively saying to the North Koreans just that - don’t counterfeit our money,” Bush said on Jan. 26, 2006.

If I recall correctly, I think one of the reasons for the frozen cash ($25 million) was because of the counterfeiting and money laundering. That is understandable. In return to start disabling the Yongbyon reactor, North Korea wanted that money back. So the United States released the money with some minor complications, but the DPRK did get it. As usual, North Korea keeps moving the goal posts, but will throw a fit if others do it real or imagined. Several posts have covered this already, so that is not news.

However, a 10-month McClatchy Newspapers investigation on three continents has found that the evidence to support Bush’s charges against North Korea is uncertain at best and that the claims of the North Korean defectors cited in news accounts are dubious and perhaps bogus. One key law-enforcement agency, the Swiss federal criminal police, has publicly questioned whether North Korea is even capable of producing “supernotes,” counterfeit $100 bills that are nearly perfect except for some practically invisible additions.

Huh? How is that so? I did read an article a while back regarding the question regarding the supernote producing capability (based on their own currency being very low quality), but in my mind, that does not prove a lot. I cannot find the link, but I will post it once I do find it. But to see more information on it, you can see this link (PDF). Personally, I do not doubt supernotes exist, and I also do not doubt North Korea produced counterfeit notes because they are well known for producing other things like pharmaceuticals, cigarettes and other things for quick cash. After all, any way to make money is a good thing for a collapsed economy. However, there is a story suggesting a defector may have been telling stories:

Many of the administration’s public allegations about North Korean counterfeiting trace to North Korea “experts” in South Korea who arranged interviews with North Korean defectors for U.S. and foreign newspapers.

The defectors’ accounts, for example, were cited prominently in a lengthy July 23, 2006, New York Times magazine story that charged North Korea with producing the sophisticated supernotes.

The McClatchy investigation, however, found reason to question those sources. One major source for several stories, a self-described chemist named Kim Dong-shik, has gone into hiding, and a former roommate, Moon Kook-han, said Kim is a liar out for cash who knew so little about American currency that he didn’t know whose image is printed on the $100 bill. (It’s Benjamin Franklin.)

The Secret Service, the Federal Reserve Board and the Treasury Department all declined repeated requests for interviews for this story.

(Link mine) Hm, that is interesting, but that does not mean the entire story regarding the supernotes may be bogus:

Although banks around the world are still seizing supernotes, the Bush administration is no longer publicly accusing North Korea of producing them and has dropped the subject from talks on halting North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program, according to State Department officials.

This story seems a bit slanted, but reading in between the noise, it seems there may be more questions than answers regarding the supernotes. So the question I have for you readers is, if a defector claiming to make these notes is lying (he obviously was if he does not know the person on the bill), what is the real story behind the notes?

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Matching the South with the North and other news

Published
by
Jack
on January 6, 2008
in Diplomacy, Economy, Humanitarian Topic, News, North Korea, Nukes, ROK, Speculation and United States
. 0 Comments

The game continues with the new president of the ROK to entice the reclusive leader of the socialist paradise to come clean and get some goodies. So far, Pyongyang remains defiant. If the North will accept the deal or not is one thing, but if this is talking billions to help shore up the already crumbled economy, maybe it is time for Kim to realize his regime survival depends on such outside help. The downside to all of this is, it means the leader has to make a full declaration which most likely will never come. Does this mean the outside will succumb to a partial list? It is hard to say how the North will play the cards, but it is very clear the North will drag its heels for as long as it can. So far, not much has been done. According to this story:

[...]

He said that as part of President-elect Lee’s plan to persuade the North to abandon its nuclear weapons, the next administration will establish an international cooperation fund of up to $40 billion.

(Emphasis mine) That is a lot of money for the impoverished North, and the plan is the following:

Spokesman Lee says the funds would be raised with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to support the impoverished North’s economic growth. He did not name specific projects, but experts say the fund would first be used to rebuild tattered North Korean infrastructure such as railroads, highways, and shipping facilities.

The question is, with all that money, will there be oversight to see where this money really goes? That is pretty doubtful because it is so difficult if not impossible to have an account of what the Dear Leader does with the money once he does get it. Also, the process of getting the North in line with the South will be a very expensive and long process. I really doubt this is an attempt to get the North in line with the South as much as it may be to keep the regime afloat for a little while longer. It has been that way for decades anyway. On the other hand, until such action has taken place and the North responds to the incentives, it is very difficult to know how it will play out. I am going to guess that amount of cash is going to be very difficult to resist considering the serious quagmire of the collapsed Juche economic plans. At this stage, it is damage control and has been that way for a pretty long time. Both sides have to be aware of this,especially Kim.

Continue reading ‘Matching the South with the North and other news’

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Cold War series #5: Korea

Published
by
Jack
on January 1, 2008
in History, North Korea, ROK, United States and Video
. 2 Comments

This is the Korea segment of the Cold War series on Google Video. If this is not allowed to be posted here, please let me know. Otherwise, enjoy:

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Happy new year: North Korea almost certain to miss deadline

Published
by
Jack
on December 30, 2007
in Defectors, Diplomacy, Humanitarian Topic, News, North Korea, ROK and United States
. 0 Comments

According to Reuters:

North Korea appears almost certain to miss a deadline in a nuclear deal, a development that is unlikely to scuttle the disarmament-for-aid pact it reached with regional powers but could hamper its implementation.

Pyongyang has met one part of the deal by starting to take apart its Soviet-era nuclear facility that produces arms-grade plutonium, but is unlikely to meet its obligation to fully account for its nuclear activities by the end of the year.

If the DPRK makes the deadline, you are free to sell me some oceanfront property in Kansas. It is the 30th already, and looks like nothing is going to be done because North Korea is balking at the details of the February deal. Kim Jong Il wants more aid in return for an almost likely incomplete detailing of its past and current programs including HEU. However, they have almost been certainly been caught otherwise, but apologists will say it could come from somewhere else. With anything dealing with North Korea, nothing is ever certain, and neither will this even if they do declare. How is the outside world to know 100%. They cannot, unless I am missing something.

If it lives up to the deal it reached with China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States, the destitute state would receive 1 million tonnes of heavy fuel oil or equivalent aid and the U.S. would take it off its terrorism black list.

Now that North Korea will not make the deadline, how are the details of the carrot going to be? Time will tell on that one, but I am going to guess it is going to be the status quo.

The paranoid state also probably loathes the prospect of being forthcoming about one of its biggest secrets, its nuclear weapons program, analysts said.

No kidding, yet will still want what they demand. Will the parties involved deliver despite the bad behavior?

North Korea may delay the process, but analysts said it must come up with some sort of declaration.

I have to agree with this too, because Kim Jong Il is the type to do stuff when he is damn good and ready. His hallmark is to ruffle his feathers, balk and play games. It’s been that way for decades. This is just more of the same stuff, and if something different comes along, color me very surprised.

One Free Korea and ROK Drop has more.

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In humanitarian news (AFP):

Beijing will soon allow more than 40 North Korean refugees sheltering at foreign missions in China to leave for South Korea and the United States, a report said Sunday.

China usually forcibly repatriates North Korean refugees, whom it regards as economic migrants, even though they often face harsh punishment on their return home.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency, quoting unnamed sources in Beijing, said the Chinese government had decided to allow them to leave to prevent the issue overshadowing the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

Ah, what a opportunistic time to all of a sudden care for North Koreans looking for freedom. As the article said, China regularly deports North Koreans and right back into the lion’s den. This is a good step forward, and will most likely save 40 lives. This is good news. The bad news is, will this last? Most likely not. I have to see this as a ploy of “See! We care for North Koreans. Do not boycott the Olympics now!” However, I have to also say even if China were to send the 40 North Koreans back, it would have not made much of a difference anyway, because most people will not even know or care about the defectors. There are games to watch.

China has been in talks over the fate of 20 North Korean defectors sheltering in the South Korean embassy compound and 23 others under the protection of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in Beijing, according to Yonhap.

[...]

Despite its rare permission for the North Koreans to seek asylum, Beijing plans to beef up its crackdown on illegal North Koreans ahead of the Olympics, Yonhap said.

Hah, so it is business as usual. Nothing to see here folks, move along.

See One Free Korea

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Kim Jong Il does not want to give up nuclear fuel and other news

Published
by
Jack
on December 24, 2007
in Diplomacy, News, North Korea, Nukes, ROK and United States
. 1 Comment

yongbyon.jpgThis should come as no surprise whatsoever. According to the Chosun Ilbo:

North Korea claims that nuclear fuel and a cooling tower are not subject to disablement of nuclear facilities under a six-nation agreement signed in February, it emerged Saturday. According to diplomatic sources in Washington, a U.S. delegation of nuclear experts has visited North Korea several times, demanding the North dispose of unused nuclear fuel and destroy the nuclear cooling tower during the disablement stage.

(Emphasis and link mine) I had a feeling something would come along such as this. North Korea is always on this cat and mouse game, and on top of not coming clean with the uranium enrichment found on the tubes, now this. I am wondering how Washington and the other six-party members are going to react on this. At this stage of the game, it is too early to say, but one thing is crystal clear: The deadline is ticking down to the wire, and North Korea balks at the last second despite all the promises made before. When are people going to learn that Kim Jong Il cannot be trusted?

Continue reading ‘Kim Jong Il does not want to give up nuclear fuel and other news’

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Lee Myung-bak wins ROK election

Published
by
Jack
on December 19, 2007
in News and ROK
. 3 Comments

For those that do not know, Lee ha won the ROK elections by a wide margin:

South Korea’s presidential election was won by runaway favourite Lee Myung-bak by a landslide on Wednesday.

The former Hyundai chief executive received 50.3 per cent of the vote, according to exit polls. His nearest rival, liberal Chung Dong-young, had 26 per cent.

That’s a pretty commanding lead.

Conservative Mr Lee, a former Seoul mayor who was 66 on election day, has led the race for months.

His victory ends a decade of liberal rule in the South, during which the country embarked on unprecedented reconciliation with rival North Korea that has restored trade and travel across the heavily armed frontier dividing the peninsula.

Mr Lee has promised to take a more critical view of Seoul’s engagement with rival North Korea and seek closer US ties.

Now this is where it can get sticky. Once the U.S. elections are over (and I am sure a Democrat is going to win the next one), how is the six-party talks and the engagement policies going to work? I do not know, but the idea and tactics may change.

Just days before the vote, the parliament voted to authorise an independent counsel investigation into Mr Lee in a stock manipulation case where prosecutors had already cleared him of wrongdoing. The counsel is to complete the probe before his inauguration in February, and Mr Lee has said he would not accept the presidency if found at fault.

I heard a little about this, but do not know all the details about any past shady deals. Does anybody know the details of this?

“I want to thank the people who have defended me from numerous negative campaigns,” he said after voting in Seoul.

This is politics, and there is no escaping negative campaigns.

Unlike previous elections dominated by issues like security policy with rival North Korea or relations with the US, this year voters were focused on economic matters due to concern over high property prices, soaring unemployment and a widening gap between rich and poor.

Well, let’s hope things go better this time around.

Nicknamed “The Bulldozer” for his thrusting business acumen, Mr Lee’s support has been bolstered by unrest over the five-year term of liberal President Roh Moo-hyun, who was constitutionally barred from seeking re-election.

Another thing I did not know. Was Roh’s tenure that bad? Looks like it. I am going to have to read up and see what he did to get barred from re-election. Was this because something he did wrong, or does the ROK have term limits and Roh reached it?

In 2002, Mr Roh was elected after pledging not to be in thrall to the US while also continuing the rapprochement with the North fostered by his predecessor and fellow liberal Kim Dae-jung, who won a Nobel Peace Prize for his “sunshine” policy of engagement with Pyongyang.

That’s a serious sore spot for those watching Pyongyang to say the least. Whatever the case, I am very interested to see how new elected officials play the rest of this saga out. North Korea is still around after many elections in the ROK, US and elsewhere. Will this election finally turn the tide against Kim? We shall see.

More information on One Free Korea and ROK Drop

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North Korean oddities: DMZ Tunnels

Published
by
Jack
on December 18, 2007
in Defectors, History, Kim Il Sung, North Korea and ROK
. 5 Comments

DMZ TunnelOne of the more interesting oddities I have read about are the tunnels under the DMZ.

According to north Korean defectors, Kim Il-Sung — president of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea — issued a sweeping order in the early 1970s that required every Korean People’s Army division along the Demilitarized Zone to dig and maintain at least two tunnels into South Korea. The opposing United Nations Command had been aware of an earlier north Korean tunneling effort that never became an actuality, but was surprised when new evidence came up that indicated the north was hard at work underground again.

(Emphasis mine) I do not know where the source of this information is, but I am very interested in finding it. Since the DPRK side will obviously have no information on such projects, it would be interesting to read any declassified information on these tunnels. If anybody has any good source material, let me know. This goes on to say:

On November 15, 1974 (Subscription) while in operation in the western DMZ near Korangpo, allied reconnaissance troops found steam rising from the earth’s surface indicating that a tunnel was present underneath the DMZ. The tunnels depth is believed to be some 45 meters, has a total length of 3,500 meters of which 1,000 meters invaded into the DMZ. The tunnel is along a course that would have exiting soldiers heading towards Korango, Uijongbu and is some 65 km from Seoul, 8 km northeast of Korangpo. It has a prefabricated wall of concrete and slate. When discovered, there were 220-volt and 60-watt lamps, electric lines, railways, and track vehicles. The ground is inclined by 5 degrees to the north to prevent water from gathering. There are turning points on the railroad. The tunnel is large enough to allow the transit of a regiment of troops and heavy artillery every hour.

Pretty impressive if you ask me. I am not sure if people visiting the DMZ get to see these tunnels. I am pretty certain the North side does not conduct such tours, but I could be wrong. The other tunnel discoveries are found in this article (Subscription).

More information on the tunnels are here, here, here(Small blurbs and a map) and here (PDF: This also gives a list of provocations by the North. An interesting read).

I can barely imagine the man-hours, intensive labor and the horrors of working on these tunnels. The risk must of been very great, and at least the first tunnel caused loss of life when investigating these tunnel from the South side. As for the North, I can only speculate, but the work must of been very hard.

Do other readers know more about this oddity? I would be truly grateful.

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