The crisis. The enigma. The controversy.
I have bee looking for this all over the place and here they are. Before you look at these videos, make sure to read One Free Korea where extensive analysis is made regarding the food and economic situation. This, in my opinion, is a must see.
Edit: I think there is a part missing, so I will watch for that.
Part 1:
Part 2:
I think Joshua said he attended this. I wonder where he is at…
Note: I was reluctant to embed this video because of the warning at the beginning of the film. This post may go away if somebody complains, and to be sure, please check out the official site and consider buying the DVD which is not that bad of a price to begin with. As with all videos on this blog, if something is a problem, and somebody wants me to remove anything, please let me know, and I will remove it promptly.
On Patruped’s blog, this video was embedded, and I could not help but to be riveted by the contents. This is a video about Yuri Bezmenov, a former Soviet propagandist for the KGB who defected in 1970. This video was made in 1985 shortly before the fall of communism in the USSR in 1991. In my opinion, the contents are very interesting and Yuri makes some interesting forecasts which some did come true such as the inevitable fall of communism in the USSR. It has a clear right-leaning bias, but if one chooses to see through the bias and see it for the historical context it is worth a watch. Does it mean I disagree with the bias? No, not really, but I am in no position to make an informed opinion. Just watch it and decide for yourself as to the contents.
As I research this more, I may add additional thoughts.
Update: After a good-hearted debate, there are no other thoughts to add to this video. Enjoy the video one and all.
I am very curious to see what the details will be. According to The Press Association:
Israel and the US are co-ordinating the release of details of a mysterious Israeli air force strike in Syria, according to reports.
The Haaretz newspaper says US officials might disclose details of the Sept 6 strike later this month during congressional hearings.
The Yediot Ahronot newspaper reported that the matter would come up April 17 before the congressional Committee on Foreign Relations.
Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev would not comment on the Haaretz report.
But Israeli security officials told The Associated Press that they object to any release of details to the committee, which is to hear testimony on North Korea’s nuclear programme, including any nuclear activity in Syria.
Israel has maintained almost total silence since the attack, which Syria said hit an unused military installation.
But some foreign reports have claimed that Israel targeted a nuclear installation Syria was building with North Korean assistance.
Damascus denies having an undeclared atomic programme, and North Korea says it was not involved in any such project. Syria did not retaliate for the attack.
The New York Times has reported that the Bush administration knew about the strike before it happened.
According to Haaretz, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the Bush administration think it is now possible to disclose details because in their assessment Syria is unlikely to retaliate at this point.
This is is full of unanswered questions, and I am very surprised the US is going to release the details despite Israeli’s objections. Whatever happened behind closed doors is up for debate and mystery, and if Bush knew of a strike beforehand is unknown to me as well. For some people, the New York Times is not reliable, and maybe some questioned it. Personally, I do not question the NYT because of the paper itself, but I question the whole thing. Syria and North Korea deny any nuclear cooperation of course, but Washington thinks something fishy is going on. That I agree with. What it is, we will find out very soon.
One thing I am not getting is, Syria is unlikely retaliate at this point may be true, but North Korea has ants in their pants. I can see it now; if Washington were to say North Korea has been helping Syria with nuclear weapons, we all know North Korea will increase the sabre rattling. It should get pretty interesting.
Others know more details of this fiasco, and I would keep my eyes peeled on OFK and DPRK Studies.
Maybe I am interested in the wrong country. Maybe I should simply give it up and not worry about it. There are so many issues facing my own country, perhaps I should worry what happens at home. However, I cannot help but to want to try and look through the dark looking glass and try to understand the silhouette of the gears turning in the feeble attempt to understand. As a person who never even stepped foot into Korea or any other part of Asia for that matter, why the interest?
Perhaps it is the human condition. Perhaps it is the taboo of trying to understand something I am not supposed to understand. Perhaps I am just weird and need to find a new hobby. Maybe I need to find an answer to these things before trying to understand something I have very little understanding of on the other side of the world. Something draws me to this mysterious place, and the succession and future possibilities are one of them:
The DailyNK has an interesting write-up about the possible succession by high level defector Hwang Jang Yop. He predicts there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the evaporation of the Kim Jong Il regime, he does predict people will not take another successor seriously. I am sure he is correct the regime will stick around for as long as possible. How long it can sustain itself is anybody’s guess, and there are many theories to suggest when the regime will topple. As for the state, that may take even longer as suggested by Projecting Pyongyang (h/t: DPRK Studies) and Marcus Noland’s Korea After Kim Jong Il (I will not go into these in detail now, since this is a subject I am still learning). There are many, many other publications, articles and other things discussing the possibilities as well as you may very well know. While it is fascinating to speculate how North Korea may go, nobody really knows how things will develop and finally be history. I am going to guess even Kim Jong Il does not really know the ultimate fate of his so-called paradise, but he may be the only one with all the variables known such as the inner workings of his government, the deals made with China (and others), the nature of his economy and what he plans to do next. I am going to venture a guess not even the closest of his inner circle of cronies may not have the entire picture. With this in mind, if close insiders may not have all the information (I am going to guess each department has information, but for the sake of keeping the people in line, not one person other than Kim know everything), if the inner circle, ordinary North Koreans and even the elite do not know everything that is going on, outsiders know even less. Not even less, almost nothing with 100% certainty.
Continue reading ‘The Path To Collapse: Hwang Jang Yop on succession’
Sphere: Related ContentHere is an interesting documentary about Adolf Hitler. I do not know who made the documentary, but that is not important. What this discussed was the psychological profile of Adolf Hitler. Apparently, this was never done before, but some shocking predictions were made based on his behavior and past. These were accurate from the documentary’s point of view.
One of the people discussing this profile is a man named Jerrold M. Post. Apparently, he never saw the analysis much later.
Now, what is interesting, and what I would like to know is, are there profiles of Kim Jong Il, Kim Il sung or the other cronies inside the regime? I am sure if there is such a thing, it is not for public consumption, but it would be very interesting to see something like that.
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There has been speculation and I have speculated along with many others if the government should finally implode or explode. We do know the economy already collapsed a while ago, and the DPRK has been dependent on aid to keep the regime going. We also know it is hanging by a thread, and numerous reports from defectors and elsewhere has suggested the dire situation in North Korea. One of the speculations is once the regime is finally gone, who would take over, what plans are in place and the long term goals of the North if it should suddenly topple. One of the more well known speculations is China would step in. While not all agree with it, I think we can all agree China does have some vested interest in North Korea pre- and post-collapse. However, I do not have a crystal ball, so it is very hard to say what the future may bring. Whatever the case, sudden collapse will be painful and a mess. I cannot see it any other way.
Continue reading ‘The path to collapse: China to step in (Full PDF available)?’
Sphere: Related ContentThe game continues with the new president of the ROK to entice the reclusive leader of the socialist paradise to come clean and get some goodies. So far, Pyongyang remains defiant. If the North will accept the deal or not is one thing, but if this is talking billions to help shore up the already crumbled economy, maybe it is time for Kim to realize his regime survival depends on such outside help. The downside to all of this is, it means the leader has to make a full declaration which most likely will never come. Does this mean the outside will succumb to a partial list? It is hard to say how the North will play the cards, but it is very clear the North will drag its heels for as long as it can. So far, not much has been done. According to this story:
[...]
He said that as part of President-elect Lee’s plan to persuade the North to abandon its nuclear weapons, the next administration will establish an international cooperation fund of up to $40 billion.
(Emphasis mine) That is a lot of money for the impoverished North, and the plan is the following:
Spokesman Lee says the funds would be raised with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to support the impoverished North’s economic growth. He did not name specific projects, but experts say the fund would first be used to rebuild tattered North Korean infrastructure such as railroads, highways, and shipping facilities.
The question is, with all that money, will there be oversight to see where this money really goes? That is pretty doubtful because it is so difficult if not impossible to have an account of what the Dear Leader does with the money once he does get it. Also, the process of getting the North in line with the South will be a very expensive and long process. I really doubt this is an attempt to get the North in line with the South as much as it may be to keep the regime afloat for a little while longer. It has been that way for decades anyway. On the other hand, until such action has taken place and the North responds to the incentives, it is very difficult to know how it will play out. I am going to guess that amount of cash is going to be very difficult to resist considering the serious quagmire of the collapsed Juche economic plans. At this stage, it is damage control and has been that way for a pretty long time. Both sides have to be aware of this,especially Kim.
Continue reading ‘Matching the South with the North and other news’
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This article got me thinking a lot, and the food shortages in North Korea seem to be getting worse and worse.
[...]
According to the survey results, which were announced Thursday, North Korea’s gross production of grains such as rice, corn and wheat, was about 4.01 million tons in 2007, down about 470,000 tons from the year before.
North Korea reportedly needs 6.5 million tons of grain to meet domestic demand, meaning it is facing a shortfall of about 2.49 million tons.
Especially devastating were torrential rains in August and a typhoon in September that hit the Korean Peninsula, which resulted in the flooding of about 11 percent of rice paddies in the country. As a result, rice production was 1.53 million tons, down by 360,000 tons from the previous year.
[...]
(Emphasis mine) North Korea’s food shortages are not new, and while I am not a farmer, I have read several places the land has been so overworked and the hills so stripped bare for fuel, the floods made the crops fare even worse. This article shows an eerie foretelling of the events of August 2007:
Photographs which depict a lush, rural environment are misleading. The country needs an average of 1m metric tonnes in food aid a year.
Yes, we have heard about the model farms before, but after the flooding, even some of the best crops were eradicated. Yes, in North Korea, image is everything, but it seems to me the facade is fading fast with the walls cracking and the real face showing behind it. The more that is shown, the bleaker it becomes. After a while, no amount of “spin” will make it better. In my mind, it is only a matter of time before everything is clear to everybody, and that will not be pretty for anybody.
“North Korea is not an agrarian country,” said Kathi Zellweger, a frequent visitor to the country with aid organisation Caritas. It is mostly rugged mountain terrain, and only about 18% is arable.
It is dependent on fertilizer and machinery to make that land productive, both of which are expensive.
Fertilizer and spare parts seem to be a very serious problem. With a growing population, the demand for more food rises (and you guessed it), the State cannot deliver when there is little to farm the land with. As the article goes on to suggest not only natural disasters takes its toll on food production, but decades of political central mismanagement of the Kims made things even worse (Among other things: see One Free Korea’s review of Marcus Noland and Stephen Haggard’s book on the famine - Markets, Aid and Reform as must read):
[...]
“If their farm produces five times as much, they don’t get five times as much food,” he said. Instead, they concentrate on their own private plots, which they use to feed themselves and to produce food for the markets.
The problem with this system is that market reforms, instituted in 2002, have sent prices soaring at a higher rate than wages. “Who can afford this stuff in the markets?” asked Mr French.
The answer: only the elite. Government officials, senior managers of state enterprises, security forces, and the leadership of the army are all unlikely to go hungry.
But a typical urban family can now only afford to buy 4kg of maize - the cheapest commodity - a month.
[...]
As Children of the Secret State suggested, the poor are only left with crumbs. The article only goes further to show a bleaker picture:
The urban diet is partly made up of a ration provided by the government, but this has dropped from 300-250g of cereals per person per day. North Korean officials have told the WFP they expect it to slump to 200g a day.
“The rural folk have already learned how to cope,” said Tim Peters, director of aid agency Helping Hands Korea. “But the urban people are so dependent on the government for distribution.”
As a result, foreign donations that have helped to prop North Korea up in previous years are doubly important this year.
To date, only 270,000 of the 500,000 tonnes of food needed for 2005 has arrived, the WFP says.
Then the prediction comes:
And there is always the risk of natural disaster.
Floods exacerbated the extreme food shortages 10 years ago, and North Korea’s ability to cope with them “is now probably worse”, said Mr French.
Ongoing land clearance has destroyed natural water breaks, “so it all just comes flooding down”.
…and that is precisely what happened with the major floods of August 2007. Then a little while later, a typhoon hits making the situation even worse. Not a lot has been said as to the result of the 2006 floods and how many people are perishing as a result of it, but the ROK did deliver tons and tons of food/medicine aid to the stricken North. If that helped, I am not sure of. However, one thing is clear. North Korea cannot continue to go on like this, and the people at some point are going to rebel especially if the food shortages hit the elite and/or KPA. It seems like it is happening already.
The DailyNK also paints the same shortfall with some reservations. What was the reservation?
[...]
A North Korean expert observed, “Due to the flood this year, the overall crop yield was reduced, but the products from North Korea’s paddy fields which are spread all over the place do not count in official statistics. When considering the food support from the outside world, the food shortage is not at a worrisome level.”
[...]
So this quote suggests the aid seems to be helping some, but I have to say this is still only a band-aid. I simply cannot see this level of suffering going on much longer without a lot of problems. However, I could be wrong, and have been wrong before. Also:
A majority of defectors insisted that the agricultural production level from North Korea’s individually cultivated lands (including paddy fields and fields attached to homes) will surpass the cooperative farms’ 30% standard.
So again, time will only tell, but along with the other news and rumors floating around including a lot of “firsts” for the reclusive regime tells me volumes. Something is changing in North Korea, and it may be bittersweet.
Also, see:
Food Security in North Korea: Designing Realistic Possibilities (PDF)
Famine and Reform in North Korea (PDF - Marcus Noland)
Hunger and Human Rights- The Politics of Famine in North Korea (PDF Haggard, Noland)
Edit: See One Free Korea
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It seems Kim Jong Nam has not been assigned to any positions in North Korea according to the latest news wires. The latest speculation suggests Kim Jong Il has named Kim Jong Chol in a key position in the KWP:
TOKYO (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has named his second eldest son to a major post, making him the top candidate to eventually take over as head of the reclusive state, a Japanese newspaper reported on Saturday.
Kim appointed Kim Jong-chol as deputy chief of a leadership division in the ruling Workers’ Party, the Mainichi Shimbun said, quoting sources close to the North Korean government.
This article did not say what position Chol has taken, but I linked to another source that states it is the Guidance Department. Kim Jong Il held this department before getting named successor (link and emphasis is mine):
Kim Jong-Chul, 27, had recently become vice chief of the ruling Korean Workers’ Party’s organisation and guidance department, the Mainichi Shimbun said, quoting several unnamed sources close to the North Korean administration.
The position, regarded as one of the party’s most important posts, was assumed by Kim Jong-Il in 1969 before he succeeded his late father Kim Il-Sung, it said.
However, in earlier reports, it was suggested Kim Jong Nam returned to Pyongyang to work at the department. It could still be true because no official word of any of Kim’s sons has comer down the pike to be named in any key position. It could be sources “close to the North Korean government”, but it is still guesswork and unclear no matter what. The succession and any succession issues are a very closely guarded secret.
Kim Jong-Chul had an office in the same building as his father, from whom he often received direct guidance, the report said.
Hm, interesting.
The organisation and guidance department is a seen as one of the ruling party’s most powerful, as it has the authority to shuffle personnel and censor other departments.
The son was now seen as front-runner to take over the world’s only communist family dynasty, as his two brothers had no positions in the ruling party which controls the reclusive state, it said.
There had been rumours from the imporverished and isolated nation that Kim Jong-Il’s oldest son Kim Jong-Nam, 36, had belonged to the guidance department, but they had been denied, the Mainichi said.
I wonder who the source of this information is? Of course, nobody knows, but all the same, it is pretty interesting since North Korea is an intelligence black hole. If the report is true, it should be pretty significant, but again, so were the reports of Kim Jong Nam which now seems to be not the case. All the same, this is speculation.
Kim’s youngest son, Kim Jong-Woon, 24, now served in the nation’s military and was largely seen to have dropped out of the succession race, it said.
I have not heard much about Woon either, but again, it does not mean a whole lot at this point. Naturally:
There is no official confirmation of the Japanese newspaper report, either in North or South Korea.
Will the dynasty survive? I doubt it, but I have been wrong before, and as with anything North Korea, one can only watch and see what happens.
Update: See DPRK Studies.
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In the last part of the series, I discussed public relations and the story of Edward Bernays. His idea was to control the masses by appealing to the wants, feelings and inner desires. He renamed the profession to public relations because the word “propaganda” has such a negative tone in America, and he was right. Here, when the word propaganda is used, from what I have seen, is perceived as something insulting. However, in my view, propaganda is not necessarily a bad word, but became a bad word because the truth is skewed very radically. In America, propaganda is still a very powerful tool, and we see it everyday. As I said before, propaganda may have some similarities to other regime ideals and the like, but the similarities end on how they go about the strategy. The difference I have noticed with the public relations of freer nations like America vs. a totalitarian regime for example like Nazi Germany or North Korea, is that in freer nations, we can counter propaganda with skepticism and even rejection, while in more authoritarian societies, the propaganda cannot be questioned openly. Today, we focus on the possible propaganda strategies of North Korea and how it may have similarities in the art/science of public relations, but I am going to venture a wild guess it is not based on the ideas of Edward Bernays.
As usual: Please be aware this is an ongoing research project, and information contained in this post may have glaring factual or missing information that I may not be aware of. If anybody has any insight that will make me better understand it, please say so in the comments and I will love to take your views into consideration and learn something. That is the whole goal of this blog.
Continue reading ‘A closer look at propaganda Part 2: Utopian dreams’
Sphere: Related ContentIf you are interested in an overview of North Korea, here is an interesting PDF for you. It’s a pretty quick read, and while I do not agree with all of it (well, who can all agree on everything when it comes to North Korea), it is still pretty good.
North Korea specific results here
I am continuing to wade through the documents, and should be interesting and good research material. Enjoy the archives.
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There has been a buzz about a possible end to the Korean War, and reading about it, there are some unanswered questions from my end anyway, and perhaps some readers can help me understand some of the background or a better understanding on this.
With the leaders’ agreement short of naming the participants in the talks, controversy remains over which country among the four pertinent countries — South and North Korea, the United States and China — should be excluded if the talks involve three nations. As signatories of the armistice, the U.S. and North Korea must be part of the talks. China, the other part of the three-way armistice, claims it will also be part of the talks, but the South Korean government has said Seoul will be part of the dialogue on any occasion, partly because the summit agreement was reached between the two Koreas.
What I am not getting from this article is why only three nations would be allowed to participate in a possible peace treaty. Since the United States, South Korea, China and North Korea were all part of the Korean War, why would only three nations be involved in the process when all four want (or appears to want) to be part of it? Kim Yong Nam was not talking:
Continue reading ‘Korean War peace treaty questions’
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There is the lingering and little talked about issue regarding kidnapped South Koreans according to the DailyNK. Apparently, these poor souls got tired of living in South Korea and wanted to defect to the socialist paradise that is the DPRK according to Kim Jong Il:
At the Inter-Korea Summit which was held in Pyongyang on the 3rd, Kim Jong Il insisted regarding the abducted South Korean, “They came to the North voluntarily and we received them through welcoming ceremonies.”
I guess human rights activists were wrong about Roh and he asked about some human rights issues. So it seems to me they should all calm down, “take a chill pill” and understand Roh is doing all he can to make North Korea play nice. In my opinion, if you believe that, I have some ocean front property in Kansas to sell.
Continue reading ‘Joseph Dresnok syndrome?’
Sphere: Related ContentI guess this can be an open thread of sorts, because I have seen so many takes on the U.S. presence in South Korea. Should they stay or should they go? Lately, I have noticed a very strong anti-American sentiment, and it is not just from the North. Since I am not too familiar with the South as others in the blogosphere (man, I hate that word). This article gave some insight although it is from the opinion page (I keep forgetting to say emphasis is mine on these entries):
The question of American forces in Korea is begged, inescapably, by Thursday’s joint North-South Declaration, which proclaims that the two Koreas “need to end the current armistice regime and build a permanent peace regime” — and which further affirms the goal of “unification on their own initiative and according to the spirit of ‘by-the-Korean-people-themselves.’”
Does that imply “Yankee go home?“, why yes, it sure looks like it:
Continue reading ‘Open Question: Should the U.S. stay or go?’
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Getting away from the summit and six party talks for a while, and today, we will look at some more oddities.
Known in the DPRK as the Peace Village and in the south as Propaganda Village. For those that visited the DMZ has seen this from the south, but I do not know if North Korea includes it in the official tour or not (for those that been on the North’s tour, perhaps you can shed some light on this). I started looking at this oddity on Wikipedia, but a lot of information was not readily available otherwise.
Continue reading ‘North Korean oddities: Kijong-dong’
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