Archive for the 'Speculation' Category

A dry run across the DMZ

Published
by
Jack
on September 18, 2007
in News, North Korea, Nukes, Other Regimes, ROK, Speculation and United States
. 0 Comments

This is truly a milestone in my opinion for a South Korean leader to cross the DMZ to Pyongyang. It looks a dry run is happening before showtime for the 2nd summit sometime next month:

It was the first time a South Korean presidential vehicle had crossed the heavily fortified Demilitarised Zone border since the 1950-53 Korean War, which followed the division of the peninsula at the end of World War Two.

“We will be checking the president and the first lady’s routes so that their movement is safe,” a security official at the presidential Blue House said before the trip, which will take them 168 km (104 miles) from the border to North Korea’s capital, Pyongyang.

This should be interesting. Too bad there will most likely be little footage of the event, but I am sure it will be gigantic news once Roh actually crosses the DMZ. Also, it does not surprise me Kim Jong Il did not want to meet in South Korea. There is nobody to worship him and could be a risk to his safety (from what I read before).

Roh has said he would discuss beginning talks for a permanent peace treaty to replace the fraying truce that ended the Korean War. He also said the meeting will help the Cold War foes develop common economic interests by trying to build “an economic community”.

It looks like a race against the clock to take advantage of any chance for a soft landing, and the window of opportunity is closing fast. Also, the growing concern of the possible nuke problem with Syria is not helping matters either. Of course South Korea does not think that is so. I guess they are erring on the side of caution, and will take time to see if Pyongyang is actually helping Syria. The thing is, we really do not know 100%. Better hurry up…

In all, it seems to me a lot of important developments are happening in North Korea and the region, and things should get even more interesting as more of these things unfold such as Kim Jong Nam’s position, the six-party talks outcomes, what the hell is going on in Syria and the 2nd summit.

We are all watching closely.

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The DailyNK got me thinking: When will times get better?

Published
by
Jack
on September 17, 2007
in Defectors, Diplomacy, Economy, Humanitarian Topic, Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, Korean War, North Korea, Policy Elites, Politics, Speculation and The region
. 3 Comments

Chemical Factory(Fixed some grammar and typos) There are some powerful images coming from North Korea that go beyond the propaganda and the partisan rhetoric that goes with it. One in particular are photos from this article from the DailyNK. There are two pictures that caught my attention namely the women behind the barbed wire and the abandoned factory (Picured left).

The article asks an interesting question: “What Does that Girl Beyond The Barbed Wire Think?” I would like to go a little beyond that and ask the question, what does the average person living inside one of the most brutal regimes in the world think? That is a very big question, but that does lend the most important part of the process of brining eventual re-unification and freedom from dictatorship. However, I have noticed the political process has hindered the main focus and instead political points are at expense of the people behind that barbed wire. Something must of been lost along the way because of North Korea’s involvement in nuclear tests, missiles and possibly helping other regimes (such as Syria) carry out the most terrifying prospects of terrorists having access to weapons that can kill tens of thousands of people on impact. That is a very legitimate concern and North Korea should disarm and join the ranks of the international community. Unfortunately, that may be a pipe dream because the DPRK has not done it so far with all the disengagement.

Continue reading ‘The DailyNK got me thinking: When will times get better?’

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North Korea selling nuclear material to Syria? I have my doubts (Update: I could be wrong!)

Published
by
Jack
on September 13, 2007
in North Korea, Nukes, Other Regimes, Speculation and United States
. 2 Comments

I have my doubts because of the huge risks involved, but knowing North Korea, anything is possible. With that said, there has been speculation on North Korea’s possibility of selling nuclear material, weapons and other illicit goodies with other regimes including terrorist organizations. After all, Kim Jong Il needs hard cash in a real hurry.

What is bothering me is the cooperation with Iran which is the country who very famously stated they wanted to “wipe Israel from the map”. I kind of doubt North Korea and Iran are discussing what was on TV the other day. Perhaps one can connect the dots that somehow Iran, Syria and North Korea are in some kind of odd agreement to scratch each others’ backs to help attack Israel or another part of the region (which could lead to big headaches), but that may be getting into conspiracy theory territory.

Continue reading ‘North Korea selling nuclear material to Syria? I have my doubts (Update: I could be wrong!)’

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U.S. plot to topple the regime?

Published
by
Jack
on September 8, 2007
in Diplomacy, News, North Korea, Speculation and United States
. 0 Comments

That is so according to this article:

North Korea accused the United States on Saturday of seeking to overthrow the communist country’s regime “behind the screen of dialogue,” vowing unspecified stern punishment against any attempt to undermine it.

Prime Minister Kim Yong Il made the accusation during a ceremony on the eve of North Korea’s founding anniversary.

The barb came amid progress in international efforts to convince North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons programs, and is believed to be part of routine anti-U.S. rhetoric that Pyongyang usually issues to mark national holidays.

“Behind the screen of dialogue, the U.S. is increasing military pressure against us while sticking pertinaciously to psychological warfare to collapse our republic from inside,” Kim said, according to footage of the North’s Korean Central Television Station seen in Seoul.

Kim vowed that North Korea would “sternly punish without even a bit of pardon at all” any attempt to undermine the country.

I am sorry, but North Korea seems to be doing a fine job all by itself. Moreover, this is not news either. This has been the line for many years, but the reason why I posted this. Is this what is to come for the next round of talks or the upcoming summit? After all, they are pretty good at this disengagement thing.

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The Path to Collapse: A closer look into Juche and the cult of personality Part 2

Published
by
Jack
on September 8, 2007
in Cult Of Personality, Economy, History, Juche Idea, Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, North Korea, Policy Elites, Politics and Speculation
. 0 Comments

Kim Il SungIn the last part of this series, we looked into the basics of the Juche idea, how it started, how factions were rooted out, the rise of Kimilsugism and how it differed from the Stalin regime. Much of the content was not mine, but mostly questions and my own interpretations of what was already published on the Internet. As I said before, I am just learning this stuff, and I may have to go back and revise some things as I learn it.

Today, we look further into the Juche Idea and how it works for the policy elites, normal North Korean people and presentation both inside and outside the reclusive country. From what I have read so far, they all seem different. So we shall dig in the Policy Elites paper a little more too.

As always: Please be aware this is an ongoing research project, and information contained in this post may have glaring factual or missing information that I may not be aware of. If anybody has any insight that will make me better understand it, please say so in the comments and I will love to take your views into consideration and learn something. That is the whole goal of this blog.

Continue reading ‘The Path to Collapse: A closer look into Juche and the cult of personality Part 2′

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The Path to Succession: The Path to Collapse Part 2

Published
by
Jack
on August 31, 2007
in Cult Of Personality, Defectors, Diplomacy, Economy, History, Humanitarian Topic, News, North Korea, Nukes, Other Regimes, Policy Elites, Politics, Speculation, The region and United States
. 0 Comments

Coat of arms

Sorry for the delay in the posting. I’ll remember not to make fixed dates on postings.

In the last part of the series, I looked at the “When North Korea Falls” article. I read some reactions to the article I did not read before (See comments in the last article of the series), and gave some extra insight into this complex and highly speculative series. In this part of the series, we look further into what else could happen in a former North Korea and the challenges it could face in the country and in the region. Only this time, I would like to make this more on a further tangent into the speculative. I find this stuff very interesting, and will probably go elsewhere too as I research this thing.

But first, I will look into the argument made in the comments:

That’s the money shot. The problem is that a lot of people would die in a short time (months, a couple of years) and governments would feel responsible. As it stands, probably even more have been dying over a much longer period of time. Six in one, half dozen in the other.

That presents a very good argument, and as said in the last part of the series, reunification is going to be a painful process no matter how it is done, and the way things are handled now are too Utopian. As always with this, I present the following disclaimer:

Please be aware this is an ongoing research project, and information contained in this post may have glaring factual or missing information that I may not be aware of. If anybody has any insight that will make me better understand it, please say so in the comments and I will love to take your views into consideration and learn something. That is the whole goal of this blog.

Continue reading ‘The Path to Succession: The Path to Collapse Part 2′

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The Path to Succession: The Path to Collapse (update)

Published
by
Jack
on August 29, 2007
in Communism, Cult Of Personality, Defectors, Diplomacy, Economy, History, Humanitarian Topic, Korean War, News, North Korea, Nukes, Other Regimes, Policy Elites, Politics, Speculation, The region and United States
. 7 Comments

Coat of armsAnother very good possibility in the North Korea saga is the eventual collapse of the regime instead of the continuation of the Kim dynasty. This possibility has been speculated for the last fifteen years or so, and with all the huge events that took place that could have very well have led to collapse, the regime survived. For over 65 years, North Korea has held firm control over everything, and appears to still be in control. However, in my mind, it is not a question of if the DPRK will collapse, it is a matter of when. Today, I explore the possible scenarios on how North Korea could dissolve and what the possible outcomes could be. There are many theories and very few options. However, in my opinion, the regime will fade regardless of when the region is ready, and like many other things in life, it comes when it is least expected and the least convenient. If Eastern Europe and Russia are any indicators of how North Korea will fall apart, then it could very well be unexpected yet expected fate. On the other hand, Korea is way different from the way other Communist regimes were (and are) run.

Please be aware this is an ongoing research project, and information contained in this post may have glaring factual or missing information that I may not be aware of. If anybody has any insight that will make me better understand it, please say so in the comments and I will love to take your views into consideration and learn something. That is the whole goal of this blog.

Continue reading ‘The Path to Succession: The Path to Collapse (update)’

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The Path to Succession: More Unconfirmed Rumors (Update)

Published
by
Jack
on August 26, 2007
in Communism, Cult Of Personality, News, North Korea, Policy Elites, Politics, Speculation and United States
. 0 Comments

Kim Jong NamKim Jong Nam, thought of as out of the race is rumored to be back in the race according to unconfirmed reports by the Associated Press:

SEOUL, South Korea: The eldest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has returned home after spending years abroad in a move that could be linked to the ruler’s plans to choose an heir, a man close to Kim’s son said Monday.

Kim Jong Nam, 36, traveled from China to Pyongyang in late June, and his return “has decisive relations to the power transfer,” the man told The Associated Press by telephone from the United States. He asked not to be named, citing the sensitivity of the issue.

South Korea’s top spy agency, the National Intelligence Service, declined to confirm the son’s return.

Kim Jong Il has not yet publicly named an heir, prompting speculation abroad about who might eventually take the reclusive country’s helm — and whether Kim will designate one of his sons as the next leader, continuing the world’s only communist dynasty.

So the rumors fly again, and there is still no official word. Time will tell if he is really nerxt in line, any plans or different plans altogether. I will watch the propaganda machine and see if there are any Kim Jong nam portraits hanging around or Kim Jong Il finally announces something in the Juche Congress.

Looks like Kim Jong Nam is working in the Organization and Guidance Department of the Workers Party Of Korea:

SEOUL (AFP) - The eldest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il is back in the succession race after returning from exile overseas and taking an influential post with the ruling communist party, a report said Monday.

Kim Jong-Nam, 36, began work at the party’s organisation and guidance department after his return around June, said South Korea’s largest-circulation daily Chosun Ilbo, quoting an intelligence source.

The department is “the key agency” that controls all of the party, the military and the government, according to Chosun.

The National Intelligence Service, Seoul’s main spy agency, refused to comfirm the news report.

Of course. Kim Jong Nam was asked the question too, and of course denied it as well:

When asked about the possibility of his succession to North Korea’s leadership, he said that he had nothing to say on the matter.

Developing…

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The Path to Succession: Can the Dynasty Survive?

Published
by
Jack
on August 26, 2007
in Cult Of Personality, History, North Korea, Policy Elites, Politics and Speculation
. 5 Comments

Bored KPA(Note: Sorry this took longer than expected. The research on this subject is ongoing)

Probably one of the least things known in North Korea is how the inner government works. Sure, a lot of the books, papers and scholarly articles may give some very intelligent insight but nobody really knows other than the Dear Leader himself and what he chooses to tell his cronies and the outside world (which is next to nothing for that matter). So why should we worry about a possible succession if one does not know much at all about it? For me personally, it is to see how it will even be done and/or how it would survive the next handover. In the last post, I tried to decipher the first handover, and that was mind numbingly complex. Further, the process was slow and it was not until 1998 Kim Jong Il grabbed the Chairman of the National Defense Commission spot. And of course, the title of president was done away with because Kim Il Sung will probably be front and center to any succession and the all pervasive personality cult, so he would remain president and encased somewhere in a mausoleum.

Now that the last posting barely looked at the complexity of the succession to the first dynasty in the history of communism, perhaps we should look at why the dynasty took place, and why such a huge cult of personality exists. Yes, I also understand to write about the Kim family cult of personality would take an entire book, just like Juche idea is many volumes. However, perhaps one can gain a better understanding about how part of the successful leadership recipe of North Korea requires such a cult of personality. Absolute power requires absolute conformity, and what better to get that absolute conformity without the exploitation of long held cultural traditions?

I mean, why not? It has been done for the last 65+ years since the inception of the Korean Worker’s Party, and I have to say it has been pretty darn successful (not economically or freedom-wise). Despite the apparent dynastic handover problems to Kim Jong Il, he seems to be well established in power, and despite the rumors of possible inner political struggle and rumors of government collapse (and other things of that nature), Kim’s main goal is to keep grip on power no matter what, and that includes tyranny, torture, gulags, starvation, blackmail and lies. Then if Kim Jong Il are all these horrible things, then why do the people seem to buy into it? Why do they stick around and continue to pile praises on these leaders? That is hard to say, but one can take a guess, so I might as well try it too. Perhaps this can be the key to who might be next in line, but it could also pose some serious problems because of the same traditions. Could bending of the already bent Confucian traditions mess things up? Is Kim Jong Il running out of time to name a successor? Yes, he may be grooming the next leader, but it seems to me the adoring masses need to be groomed too. I have not seen any official grooming of the masses from KCNA, monuments or other items so central to DPRK life.

This posting asks the question: Can the dynasty survive after Kim Jong Il?

Continue reading ‘The Path to Succession: Can the Dynasty Survive?’

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The Path to Succession: Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il (totally re-written and revised)

Published
by
Jack
on August 24, 2007
in Cult Of Personality, History, North Korea, Policy Elites, Politics and Speculation
. 2 Comments

The smiling leadersMaybe there could be some way to understand how the next leader (if the government remains until then) will be groomed for leadership by looking at how Kim Il Sung groomed Kim Jong Il for the job. While not a lot is known what went on behind closed doors in the decision making process, there are some interesting articles and papers on the path to leadership. We shall look at the Policy Elites paper which tells the story of the succession pretty well. Also, there is sopme new information I ran into on the history of how North Korea was formed by the Soviets. While this may not give insight to the next possible succession because of the differences on how things were handled with Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, it is still interesting to see how the first dynastic succession in the history of communism took place.

We shall look into an interesting section called “Inside North Korea’s Black Box: Reversing the Optics” by Alexandre Y. Mansourov. I happen to disagree a lot with the assessments because it seems to disagree with other economic writings I happen to agree with. To me, North Korea has not really recovered from the famine of the mid-to late 1990’s, and only tried to present a paradise front. Of course, the current floods did not help either, but that happened after the paper was written, so that cannot be used against the author obviously. However, the economic changes in North Korea are not really the focus of this posting, it is how the transition from Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il took place.

Continue reading ‘The Path to Succession: Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il (totally re-written and revised)’

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