Archive for the 'United States' Category

A hello to everybody again and North Korea’s new food aid

Published
by
Jack
on June 30, 2008
in DPRK, Food, K-Blogs, News, ROK and United States
. 2 Comments

I would like to give a big hello once again to everybody who read this blog. A few days ago, I decided to nuke the entire blog and read more while posting no more. I guess I was wrong. After some E-mails, conversations and the like, I was convinced to bring this blog back. Granted, this is going to make me look quite silly, and I do not expect to have any blog cred left. All the same, I do not expect any more traffic here like before, and will continue to post what I learn. I am not any smarter than I was a few days ago. With that said, I am going to post some news.

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The United States is sending the first batch of food aid into the DPRK, which followed the recent incomplete declaration given to officials in China and the destruction of the ageing Yongbyon cooling tower. According to the Associated Press, the food aid has nothing to do with these developments, but I think the timing is interesting. Whatever the case, this is the first shipment of 500,000 tons of food. The New York Times does not mention the non-association, but gives some details about the shipment:

The ship’s visit and the North Korean agreement to invite an additional 50 international relief experts from the World Food Program, as well as a consortium of U.S. relief agencies, followed recent progress in six-nation talks on ending the North’s nuclear weapons programs.

Emphasis mine. If the Associated Press says it has nothing to do with the talks, then why is the NYT implying it was? Perhaps the key word is “followed” and not necessarily tied to the recent developments (if one would label it as such). Furthermore, it appears Kim Jong Il is going to allow workers more access to more counties than previously allowed in the famine of the 1990’s, and while I do not have the places they are allowed to go, I will safely assume the regime will not let them near any of the concentration camps dotted around the country:

Until now, the WFP has had access to only 50 of the North’s 200 counties, distributing its aid through nurseries, schools, hospitals and orphanages. Under the new agreement, the agency will have access to 128 counties, including the remote and traditionally deprived northeast region and some counties never before accessible to humanitarian agencies.

“We will have a much greater degree of randomness to our monitoring visits,” said Tony Banbury, the WFP Asia regional director, in a telephone interview. “If the agreement is successfully implemented, as I expect it will be, we will indeed have the strongest assurances we have achieved that food aid is going to the intended beneficiaries,” Mr. Banbury said.

While I agree this is better than before, it still does not allow access to 72 counties. Why is that? I can venture a guess. I am sure you can as well. The regime is not opening up, which says to me they are still in a paranoid stance as they should be if in fact they are not allowing outsiders to see what is really going on in the DPRK. Also, another interesting tidbit is the type of food donated:

On Monday, it began unloading half of its cargo of 37,000 tons of U.S.-grown wheat, Risley said. The ship will discharge the other half of its cargo at Hungnam and Chongjin, ports on the North’s eastern coast.

Hmm, not rice. Interesting. Perhaps they took some advice from Marcus Noland. As you know, the elites like rice, and perhaps wheat will make things a little more unattractive. I do not have a rundown of all the foodstuffs sent or will be sent, but this part caught my eye.

As for the ROK, they offered corn, but North Korea did not want it. Maybe this is because of the more hawkish stance by Lee, but at this stage of the game, North Korea would be wise to get whatever it can because if I recall correctly, shipments of fertilizer were not sent. According to National Post, the fertilizer was indeed not sent. So that tells me crops should be in a very tough situation for a while. Therefore, it tells me until the next season starts, North Korea is going to rely almost entirely on aid. Not that it matters; it has been on the aid wagon for quite some time, only right now, it is spiralling directly into crisis mode. Just how serious it is remains unclear because of conflicting reports, but common sense tells me after the floods in August things must be very tough.

South Korea usually sends about 400,000 tonnes of rice and a hefty amount of fertilizer a year to North Korea but has not sent the aid this year as ties soured between the two when President Lee Myung-bak took office in February and promised a tough line toward Pyongyang.

With North Korea getting closer to the de-listing of state sponsors of terror, easing of sanctions and the like, one thing is very clear; the regime will not go away any time soon. what else happens remains to be seen.

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Declare your nukes now… OK, OK, we can wait.

Published
by
Jack
on January 13, 2008
in Diplomacy, Economy, News, North Korea, Nukes, ROK and United States
. 0 Comments

I have been really engaged on the Beyond Belief series, but I think this blog needs something Korea related today. It has been a pretty slow news cycle, and while the DPRK balks, all the rest can do is wait to see what happens. However, it does not mean the negotiations are not going on, and right now, it seems despite the hard-line placed on the agreed framework, it was absolutely no surprise North Korea would not deliver, and it was also not a surprise despite the hard talking from the other sides of the table, they are now willing to wait. How long are they willing to wait? The Korea Times seems to have more:

The plan calls for North Korea to disable its key nuclear facilities no later than March and disclose details of its nuclear programs, according to the sources.

Seoul wants to draw up a timetable for the full dismantlement of the North’s nuclear programs and initiate negotiations on building a peace mechanism on the peninsula in the first half of the year, they said.

“We expect the disablement of North Korea’s nuclear plants including the removal of nuclear fuel rods to be completed by March,” a ministry official told reporters, asking not to be named. ``Pyongyang should provide a full list of its nuclear programs by that time.”

(Emphasis mine) Timetables are great and wonderful, but from what I see, where are the consequences if the DPRK does not hold its end of the deal? A sulk? That’s what it looks like to me. The U.S. wants one sooner, but I am sure all sides agree sooner is better. Whatever the case may be, it is in North Korea’s court, and Kim Jong Il is holding the ball.

U.S. chief nuclear envoy Christopher Hill urged the North to declare the list before the inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak government Feb. 25.

“There is no reason why we cannot finish the job in 2008,” he told reporters in Seoul after a meeting with President-elect Lee.

Nope, there was also no reason why the North could not give the list at the end of December, but it was not delivered, right? It is understandable removing of fuel rods is dangerous and takes time, but it does not mean a piece of paper cannot be delivered in the meantime. Of course, the North claims the declaration was given in November, but somehow got lost en route. I wish I could do that with my bills without consequence. Furthermore, the North is slowing down the process until it gets more goodies on top of it.

This part of the article does not make much sense:

Seoul has been trying to initiate talks over establishing a peace regime on the peninsula, replacing the current armistice signed by the United States, China and North Korea at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.

The war ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, leaving the two Koreas technically at war. South Korea wants to issue a joint declaration with parties to the truce for putting an end to the war, which it sees as a preliminary step to a permanent peace treaty.

However, the U.S. government is skeptical about a war-ending declaration before Pyongyang’s full denuclearization.

Seoul calls for a peace treaty in 2010. So does this imply the U.S. is willing to wait until 2010? I’ll ponder over this one for a while.

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What is the real story behind the supernotes (update)?

Published
by
Jack
on January 10, 2008
in Defectors, Economy, Humanitarian Topic, North Korea, Questions To Readers, ROK and United States
. 5 Comments

Update: One Free Korea has a much better commentary on this story and is well worth the read.
Supernote?

There have been questions and charges raised regarding the so-called supernotes that supposedly came out of North Korea. I do not know the validity of these charges because I am not a currency expert. However, there are two articles today that may raise doubts. Apparently, according to one article by AZCentral.com:

WASHINGTON - Two years ago, as he was ratcheting up a campaign to isolate and cripple North Korea’s dictatorship financially, President Bush accused the communist regime there of printing phony U.S. currency.

“When someone is counterfeiting our money, we want them to stop doing that. We are aggressively saying to the North Koreans just that - don’t counterfeit our money,” Bush said on Jan. 26, 2006.

If I recall correctly, I think one of the reasons for the frozen cash ($25 million) was because of the counterfeiting and money laundering. That is understandable. In return to start disabling the Yongbyon reactor, North Korea wanted that money back. So the United States released the money with some minor complications, but the DPRK did get it. As usual, North Korea keeps moving the goal posts, but will throw a fit if others do it real or imagined. Several posts have covered this already, so that is not news.

However, a 10-month McClatchy Newspapers investigation on three continents has found that the evidence to support Bush’s charges against North Korea is uncertain at best and that the claims of the North Korean defectors cited in news accounts are dubious and perhaps bogus. One key law-enforcement agency, the Swiss federal criminal police, has publicly questioned whether North Korea is even capable of producing “supernotes,” counterfeit $100 bills that are nearly perfect except for some practically invisible additions.

Huh? How is that so? I did read an article a while back regarding the question regarding the supernote producing capability (based on their own currency being very low quality), but in my mind, that does not prove a lot. I cannot find the link, but I will post it once I do find it. But to see more information on it, you can see this link (PDF). Personally, I do not doubt supernotes exist, and I also do not doubt North Korea produced counterfeit notes because they are well known for producing other things like pharmaceuticals, cigarettes and other things for quick cash. After all, any way to make money is a good thing for a collapsed economy. However, there is a story suggesting a defector may have been telling stories:

Many of the administration’s public allegations about North Korean counterfeiting trace to North Korea “experts” in South Korea who arranged interviews with North Korean defectors for U.S. and foreign newspapers.

The defectors’ accounts, for example, were cited prominently in a lengthy July 23, 2006, New York Times magazine story that charged North Korea with producing the sophisticated supernotes.

The McClatchy investigation, however, found reason to question those sources. One major source for several stories, a self-described chemist named Kim Dong-shik, has gone into hiding, and a former roommate, Moon Kook-han, said Kim is a liar out for cash who knew so little about American currency that he didn’t know whose image is printed on the $100 bill. (It’s Benjamin Franklin.)

The Secret Service, the Federal Reserve Board and the Treasury Department all declined repeated requests for interviews for this story.

(Link mine) Hm, that is interesting, but that does not mean the entire story regarding the supernotes may be bogus:

Although banks around the world are still seizing supernotes, the Bush administration is no longer publicly accusing North Korea of producing them and has dropped the subject from talks on halting North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program, according to State Department officials.

This story seems a bit slanted, but reading in between the noise, it seems there may be more questions than answers regarding the supernotes. So the question I have for you readers is, if a defector claiming to make these notes is lying (he obviously was if he does not know the person on the bill), what is the real story behind the notes?

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The path to collapse: China to step in (Full PDF available)?

Published
by
Jack
on January 8, 2008
in Diplomacy, Interesting reading, News, North Korea, Nukes, Other Regimes, Speculation, The region and United States
. 1 Comment

ChinaThere has been speculation and I have speculated along with many others if the government should finally implode or explode. We do know the economy already collapsed a while ago, and the DPRK has been dependent on aid to keep the regime going. We also know it is hanging by a thread, and numerous reports from defectors and elsewhere has suggested the dire situation in North Korea. One of the speculations is once the regime is finally gone, who would take over, what plans are in place and the long term goals of the North if it should suddenly topple. One of the more well known speculations is China would step in. While not all agree with it, I think we can all agree China does have some vested interest in North Korea pre- and post-collapse. However, I do not have a crystal ball, so it is very hard to say what the future may bring. Whatever the case, sudden collapse will be painful and a mess. I cannot see it any other way.

Continue reading ‘The path to collapse: China to step in (Full PDF available)?’

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Daily Press Briefing Jan. 04, 2008: North Korean declaration

Published
by
Jack
on January 6, 2008
in Diplomacy, News, North Korea, Other Topics, Politics, United States and Video
. 0 Comments

Here is the Daily Press Briefing Jan. 04, 2008 with the U.S. Department of State. Sean McCormack gives the press conference:

Full transcript here

QUESTION: On North Korea, the — I just watched a response to their foreign ministry saying that they’ve already made this — about (inaudible)?

MR. MCCORMACK: Right. Well, the first thing I’ll note about what they said is that they are committed to the six-party process. That is, I think, the kicker line in their statement and there is every evidence that they are still committed to the six-party process and are moving forward with the implementation of this phase of the agreement as was outlined back in October.

So disablement continues. They have yet to produce a declaration. Would we have wished they had produced a declaration by now? Absolutely, and when I say “we,” all the other five members of the six-party talks. Chris Hill, when he was in Pyongyang and Sung Kim, when he was in North Korea, talked to them about the importance of producing a full and complete declaration. The Chinese have and I know others have as well. We’re going to continue doing that. We want to see this as soon as possible, but we’re not going to sacrifice fullness and completeness in the interest of time.

But the North Koreans need to get about the business of completing this declaration. It’s important to the process. It is another data point that will indicate that they are, in fact, serious about denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, which is, of course, the objective of the six-party talks. So it proceeds. It is not — would we have wished that it had gone faster? Yes. Part of what Chris Hill is going to do in his tour in Northeast Asia as well as to Moscow is talk about this, talk about it with the other members of the six-party talks and urge them to do what they can to encourage the North Koreans to produce a full and complete declaration.

QUESTION: Is he in Tokyo today or is he en route?

MR. MCCORMACK: He left today. He left the United States today, so — I don’t have his schedule in front of me right now. I went through it yesterday.

QUESTION: Are you suggesting that there’s something about Hawaii that has changed?

MR. MCCORMACK: No, no.

QUESTION: Is it no longer a part of the United States?

MR. MCCORMACK: All right, I left that (inaudible) there.

QUESTION: He left Washington today?

MR. MCCORMACK: He left Washington today. I think — what did I say, he left here today?

QUESTION: You said he left the United States today.

MR. MCCORMACK: Touché, Matt. There we are.

QUESTION: Sean, is the Bush Administration emphasis on this complete and correct declaration, because what they showed you originally wasn’t complete and correct? I mean, it’s — you keep saying it has to be complete and correct –

MR. MCCORMACK: Right.

QUESTION: — leads one to assume, well, maybe what they originally showed you wasn’t complete and correct.

MR. MCCORMACK: Well, look, I know Chris talked to them about this when he was up there and we have had several conversations, as have others about the declaration and I’m not going to get into the specifics of the back and forth, but the fact is they haven’t turned in a final declaration yet. They’re going to turn that in to the Chinese as chair, conveners of the six-party meetings and we don’t have that yet. We look forward to a full and complete declaration. We also look forward to their completing the disablement phase up at Yongbyon. That is moving forward and there is good progress on that.

I just have to emphasize to everybody, when you’re looking at this process, if — while we all wish that these diplomatic processes would unfold as we had planned them, sometimes they don’t. And part of the reasons why they are not right now is we are breaking new ground in terms of what we’re doing, in terms of disabling Yongbyon and in terms of working with North Korea in the six-party talks to get a full, complete picture of their nuclear program, not something that has ever been done before.

So that is why, when you say, “Well, it hasn’t been done by December 31st, what are you going to do,” and we say, well, we’re going to keep working on it within a reasonable period of time, that’s the reason why, because we’re breaking new ground here. This hasn’t been done before. But all of that said, none of what we’re doing is lowering the bar. The North Koreans made certain commitments. We expect them to live up to those commitments. We as well as the other members of the six-party talks made commitments and we are going to fulfill those commitments. It’s going to be action in return for action.

Yeah.

QUESTION: Is Mr. Hill going to meet with President Lee in Seoul? Is that on the agenda?

MR. MCCORMACK: I don’t have his list of meetings for you. We’ll try to detail those for you if we can.

Hmmm, so it will be more wait and see. Gotcha.

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Matching the South with the North and other news

Published
by
Jack
on January 6, 2008
in Diplomacy, Economy, Humanitarian Topic, News, North Korea, Nukes, ROK, Speculation and United States
. 0 Comments

The game continues with the new president of the ROK to entice the reclusive leader of the socialist paradise to come clean and get some goodies. So far, Pyongyang remains defiant. If the North will accept the deal or not is one thing, but if this is talking billions to help shore up the already crumbled economy, maybe it is time for Kim to realize his regime survival depends on such outside help. The downside to all of this is, it means the leader has to make a full declaration which most likely will never come. Does this mean the outside will succumb to a partial list? It is hard to say how the North will play the cards, but it is very clear the North will drag its heels for as long as it can. So far, not much has been done. According to this story:

[...]

He said that as part of President-elect Lee’s plan to persuade the North to abandon its nuclear weapons, the next administration will establish an international cooperation fund of up to $40 billion.

(Emphasis mine) That is a lot of money for the impoverished North, and the plan is the following:

Spokesman Lee says the funds would be raised with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to support the impoverished North’s economic growth. He did not name specific projects, but experts say the fund would first be used to rebuild tattered North Korean infrastructure such as railroads, highways, and shipping facilities.

The question is, with all that money, will there be oversight to see where this money really goes? That is pretty doubtful because it is so difficult if not impossible to have an account of what the Dear Leader does with the money once he does get it. Also, the process of getting the North in line with the South will be a very expensive and long process. I really doubt this is an attempt to get the North in line with the South as much as it may be to keep the regime afloat for a little while longer. It has been that way for decades anyway. On the other hand, until such action has taken place and the North responds to the incentives, it is very difficult to know how it will play out. I am going to guess that amount of cash is going to be very difficult to resist considering the serious quagmire of the collapsed Juche economic plans. At this stage, it is damage control and has been that way for a pretty long time. Both sides have to be aware of this,especially Kim.

Continue reading ‘Matching the South with the North and other news’

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Cold War series #5: Korea

Published
by
Jack
on January 1, 2008
in History, North Korea, ROK, United States and Video
. 2 Comments

This is the Korea segment of the Cold War series on Google Video. If this is not allowed to be posted here, please let me know. Otherwise, enjoy:

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Happy new year: North Korea almost certain to miss deadline

Published
by
Jack
on December 30, 2007
in Defectors, Diplomacy, Humanitarian Topic, News, North Korea, ROK and United States
. 0 Comments

According to Reuters:

North Korea appears almost certain to miss a deadline in a nuclear deal, a development that is unlikely to scuttle the disarmament-for-aid pact it reached with regional powers but could hamper its implementation.

Pyongyang has met one part of the deal by starting to take apart its Soviet-era nuclear facility that produces arms-grade plutonium, but is unlikely to meet its obligation to fully account for its nuclear activities by the end of the year.

If the DPRK makes the deadline, you are free to sell me some oceanfront property in Kansas. It is the 30th already, and looks like nothing is going to be done because North Korea is balking at the details of the February deal. Kim Jong Il wants more aid in return for an almost likely incomplete detailing of its past and current programs including HEU. However, they have almost been certainly been caught otherwise, but apologists will say it could come from somewhere else. With anything dealing with North Korea, nothing is ever certain, and neither will this even if they do declare. How is the outside world to know 100%. They cannot, unless I am missing something.

If it lives up to the deal it reached with China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States, the destitute state would receive 1 million tonnes of heavy fuel oil or equivalent aid and the U.S. would take it off its terrorism black list.

Now that North Korea will not make the deadline, how are the details of the carrot going to be? Time will tell on that one, but I am going to guess it is going to be the status quo.

The paranoid state also probably loathes the prospect of being forthcoming about one of its biggest secrets, its nuclear weapons program, analysts said.

No kidding, yet will still want what they demand. Will the parties involved deliver despite the bad behavior?

North Korea may delay the process, but analysts said it must come up with some sort of declaration.

I have to agree with this too, because Kim Jong Il is the type to do stuff when he is damn good and ready. His hallmark is to ruffle his feathers, balk and play games. It’s been that way for decades. This is just more of the same stuff, and if something different comes along, color me very surprised.

One Free Korea and ROK Drop has more.

*******************************************************************************

In humanitarian news (AFP):

Beijing will soon allow more than 40 North Korean refugees sheltering at foreign missions in China to leave for South Korea and the United States, a report said Sunday.

China usually forcibly repatriates North Korean refugees, whom it regards as economic migrants, even though they often face harsh punishment on their return home.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency, quoting unnamed sources in Beijing, said the Chinese government had decided to allow them to leave to prevent the issue overshadowing the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

Ah, what a opportunistic time to all of a sudden care for North Koreans looking for freedom. As the article said, China regularly deports North Koreans and right back into the lion’s den. This is a good step forward, and will most likely save 40 lives. This is good news. The bad news is, will this last? Most likely not. I have to see this as a ploy of “See! We care for North Koreans. Do not boycott the Olympics now!” However, I have to also say even if China were to send the 40 North Koreans back, it would have not made much of a difference anyway, because most people will not even know or care about the defectors. There are games to watch.

China has been in talks over the fate of 20 North Korean defectors sheltering in the South Korean embassy compound and 23 others under the protection of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in Beijing, according to Yonhap.

[...]

Despite its rare permission for the North Koreans to seek asylum, Beijing plans to beef up its crackdown on illegal North Koreans ahead of the Olympics, Yonhap said.

Hah, so it is business as usual. Nothing to see here folks, move along.

See One Free Korea

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Kim Jong Il does not want to give up nuclear fuel and other news

Published
by
Jack
on December 24, 2007
in Diplomacy, News, North Korea, Nukes, ROK and United States
. 1 Comment

yongbyon.jpgThis should come as no surprise whatsoever. According to the Chosun Ilbo:

North Korea claims that nuclear fuel and a cooling tower are not subject to disablement of nuclear facilities under a six-nation agreement signed in February, it emerged Saturday. According to diplomatic sources in Washington, a U.S. delegation of nuclear experts has visited North Korea several times, demanding the North dispose of unused nuclear fuel and destroy the nuclear cooling tower during the disablement stage.

(Emphasis and link mine) I had a feeling something would come along such as this. North Korea is always on this cat and mouse game, and on top of not coming clean with the uranium enrichment found on the tubes, now this. I am wondering how Washington and the other six-party members are going to react on this. At this stage of the game, it is too early to say, but one thing is crystal clear: The deadline is ticking down to the wire, and North Korea balks at the last second despite all the promises made before. When are people going to learn that Kim Jong Il cannot be trusted?

Continue reading ‘Kim Jong Il does not want to give up nuclear fuel and other news’

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J. Edgar Hoover and mass jailings?

Published
by
Jack
on December 23, 2007
in Communism, History, Korean War, News, Other Topics, United States and wtf
. 2 Comments

I ran into a pretty odd story on Google News today:

A newly declassified document shows that J. Edgar Hoover, the longtime director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, had a plan to suspend habeas corpus and imprison some 12,000 Americans he suspected of disloyalty.

(I removed links, added emphasis and linked to the declassified document) We do remember the McCarthy era, and while that is a very touchy subject, I will try to avoid the partisan divide and the possible conspiracy theories linked to this story. I do have my opinions on the McCarthy era, that is not really the focus of this posting. With explosive topics such as this, I will let the reader make his or her own mind up as to the implications of such moves past and present, because from that, we can decide for ourselves how the future will be and I will leave it a that.

The purpose of this article is to show the historical documents for you folk to sift through. There are many declassified documents in the PDF linked, so you will have more than enough time to read it and see the whole thing for yourself. It will take me a while to read it all, and the letter in question is found on pages 18-20:

Continue reading ‘J. Edgar Hoover and mass jailings?’

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